202 16th St · Wolfforth, TX 79382

$245,990

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,917 sqft · SingleFamily · 12 Days on market

Built 2026 Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.7/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 202 16th Street in Wolfforth, Texas! The Fallow floorplan offers a spacious and versatile two-story 1,917 square feet layout with 5 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage-ideal for growing households or those needing extra space. The main level features an open-concept design that connects the kitchen, dining area, and family room, creating a welcoming environment for everyday living and entertaining. A convenient powder bath and foyer add functionality to the first floor. Upstairs, the private primary suite serves as a comfortable retreat with a walk-in closet and en-suite bath. Four additional bedrooms provide flexibility for guest rooms, home offices, or hobbies, while a

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 12 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $245,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 parking spaces total)
• Home design: Single-family home
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,917

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Spec home (The Fallow plan); Active listing

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $246k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $155 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (4.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $235k (4.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#43 in TX, #1,872 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Frenship ISD (urban): math 47% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #162 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 472 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $69k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $234,808 (4.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.70%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.09×
• Total profit: $143,880
• Equity at exit: $221,607

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.04×
• Total profit: $416,011
• Equity at exit: $477,904

Cash invested: $68,877 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79382

• Active inventory: 472
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,348 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,290
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$307 /mo · $3,690/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$493
• Net cashflow: $155

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,152

Max offer price $245,990

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $325	-5% $240	+0% $155	+5% $70	+10% $-15
Rent	-10% $-30	-5% $62	+0% $155	+5% $248	+10% $340
Rate	-1.0pp $279	-0.5pp $218	base $155	+0.5pp $91	+1.0pp $26

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,498
• Closing costs: $7,380
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
215 14th St Wolfforth, TX	4.0	3.0	1850	$2,200	$1.19	14d	1	0.10mi
2408 Aberdeen Ave Wolfforth, TX	4.0	2.0	1703	$2,100	$1.23	21d	1	0.40mi
1503 Good Prairie Ave Wolfforth, TX	4.0	2.5	2173	$2,450	$1.13	21d	1	0.60mi
405 Ranger St Wolfforth, TX	4.0	2.0	1866	$2,450	$1.31	14d	1	1.16mi
328 Ranger St Wolfforth, TX	4.0	2.0	2045	$2,450	$1.20	14d	1	1.19mi
2915 Tractor Ave Wolfforth, TX	4.0	3.0	2582	$2,995	$1.16	14d	1	1.23mi
7811 96th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1946	$2,195	$1.13	21d	1	1.44mi
7805 96th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1888	$2,150	$1.14	44d	1	1.46mi
7731 97th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1888	$2,075	$1.10	21d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $245,990 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $245,990 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $245,990 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $245,990 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $245,990 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $245,990 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $245,990 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $245,990 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 699-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $245,990 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,177
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,779
• − Property taxes: −$3,690
• − Insurance: −$1,230
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,254
• − Management: −$2,254
• − Depreciation: −$7,156
• Taxable loss: −$2,186
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$525
• After-tax cash flow: $2,385/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This home requires significant updates and repairs to improve its condition and value. Immediate attention to the kitchen, bathrooms, exterior, flooring, interior walls, windows, HVAC, and landscaping is recommended.

Repairs flagged

• Major Kitchen — No photos of the kitchen
• Major Bathrooms — No photos of the bathrooms
• Major Exterior — No photos of the exterior
• Major Flooring — No photos of the flooring
• Major Interior walls/paint — No photos of the interior walls/paint
• Major Windows — No photos of the windows
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — No photos of the HVAC/mechanicals
• Major Landscaping/curb appeal — No photos of the landscaping/curb appeal

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace flooring — New flooring improves the home's appearance and comfort
• Both Fix windows — New windows improve energy efficiency and curb appeal
• Both Upgrade HVAC — A new HVAC system enhances comfort and energy efficiency
• Both Improve landscaping — A well-maintained yard enhances curb appeal and property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen · No photos of the kitchen	Major	$15,000–50,000
Bathrooms · No photos of the bathrooms	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exterior · No photos of the exterior	Major	$15,000–50,000
Flooring · No photos of the flooring	Major	$15,000–50,000
Interior walls/paint · No photos of the interior walls/paint	Major	$15,000–50,000
Windows · No photos of the windows	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · No photos of the HVAC/mechanicals	Major	$15,000–50,000
Landscaping/curb appeal · No photos of the landscaping/curb appeal	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 8 items		$120,000–400,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace flooring — New flooring improves the home's appearance and comfort ↑
• Both Fix windows — New windows improve energy efficiency and curb appeal ↑
• Both Upgrade HVAC — A new HVAC system enhances comfort and energy efficiency ↑
• Both Improve landscaping — A well-maintained yard enhances curb appeal and property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Frenship ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819830
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,376
• Composite: 43.59/100
• National rank: #2976
• State rank: #162 of 826 in TX

Livability — Wolfforth

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #43
• US rank: #1872

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wolfforth, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 10,512
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,512
• Household income: $84,457
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 135.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 18% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 166.08%
• Current HPI: 561.4491
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B