620 Cimarron Trl · Southlake, TX 76092

$504,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,914 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1974 0.49 ac lot Est $662k · 24% under ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in highly sought-after Southlake, offering a rare opportunity to customize and make it your own. Nestled on a spacious, tree-filled lot, the property features a private well for irrigation—adding both value and efficiency. Inside, you’ll find a functional floor plan with generous living areas and a convenient Jack-and-Jill bathroom layout. While the home is ready for updates, it provides an excellent foundation to create your ideal living space. Located in a quiet, established neighborhood just minutes from shopping, dining, and everyday conveniences. Zoned for Keller ISD with potential eligibility for Southlake Carroll ISD. A unique opport

Key facts

• Zoned for keller isd
• 0.49 acre lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• PRIVATE WELL FOR IRRIGATION
• FUNCTIONAL FLOOR PLAN
• JACK-AND-JILL BATHROOM LAYOUT
• QUIET ESTABLISHED NEIGHBORHOOD
• ZONED FOR KELLER ISD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $505k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $505k).
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 1.5% in Southlake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#107 in TX, #3,547 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Keller ISD (urban): math 50% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #91 of 826 in TX (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Florence El (math 57% / reading 67%, grade B, #321 of 4,322 statewide, top 8%, 489 students, 11% FRL).
• Market conditions: 283 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $504,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.83%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $662,244
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
620 Cimarron Trl	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,914 (0%)	1mo	$504,900	$264	99
629 Cimarron Trl	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,858 (-3%)	1mo	$644,000	$347	91
624 Cimarron Trl	0.03mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,807 (-6%)	8mo	$625,000	$346	78
728 Cimarron Trl	0.23mi	3/2.0	2,068 (+8%)	2mo	$615,000	$297	74
1832 Johnson Rd	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,956 (+2%)	8mo	$425,000	$217	65
700 Cimarron Trl	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,728 (-10%)	18mo	$599,999	$347	65
2655 Johnson Rd	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,710 (-11%)	5mo	$1,898,000	$1,110	57
2000 Vista Ln	0.51mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,055 (+7%)	12mo	$675,000	$328	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-8,009
• Equity at exit: $75,282

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $88,200
• Equity at exit: $43,655

Cash invested: $141,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76092

• Home prices YoY: -34.0%
• Active inventory: 283
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,803 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,648
• Tax from tax record: −$568 /mo · $6,818/yr
• Insurance: −$210
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,219
• Net cashflow: $1,158

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,337

Max offer price $504,900

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $126,225
• Closing costs: $15,147
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
613 Overland Trl Southlake, TX	4.0	2.5	2299	$4,200	$1.83	20d	1	0.09mi
301 Watermere Dr #414 Southlake, TX	2.0	2.5	1572	$10,750	$6.84	1d	1	0.96mi
1300 Keller Pkwy Keller, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	990	$2,436	$2.46	3d	15	1.50mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-07
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-06
   historical Active Option Contract
3. 2026-03-26
   listed $504,900 Active
4. 2026-03-25
   historical
5. 2026-02-21
   price $509,900
6. 2025-12-18
   listed $515,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,818 · $568/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,240 · $770/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,422/yr (+$202/mo · 35.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 24% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $69,636
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,282
• − Property taxes: −$6,818
• − Insurance: −$2,524
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,571
• − Management: −$5,571
• − Depreciation: −$14,688
• Taxable income: $6,181
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,484
• After-tax cash flow: $12,413/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Keller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825260
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $92,106
• Composite: 48.46/100
• National rank: #2131
• State rank: #91 of 826 in TX

Livability — Southlake

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #107
• US rank: #3547

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Southlake, TX
• County: Tarrant County · 2,033,669 people
• City population: 31,520
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 31,520
• Household income: $250,001
• Rent vs Own: 5.4% rent · 94.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 137.0

Population outlook (Tarrant County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,380,417 people
• By 2030: 2,578,900 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 2,974,995 · +25.0%
• By 2050: 3,350,489 · +40.8%
• By 2075: 4,216,909 · +77.2%
• By 2100: 4,741,527 · +99.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Asian 16% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 8% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 5% Chinese 4% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Tarrant

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.1) · D 46.7% · R 51.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -5.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.1 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+8.7 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -155.85%
• Current HPI: 302.8677
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-06 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-03-26 Listed $504,900 NTREIS
• 2026-03-25 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-02-21 Price Changed $509,900 NTREIS
• 2025-12-18 Listed $515,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,818 · -1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.