49 Grayson Village Dr #178 · Ruckersville, VA 22923

$319,935

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,470 sqft · Townhouse · 70 Days on market

Built 2025 Excellent condition 2,178 sqft lot Est $318k · at est. $141/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.2/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to The Rutledge at Essence at Creekside! This townhome with an estimated completion of April/May 2026, offers 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, a 1-car garage, and one of the largest backyard spaces in the neighborhood, complete with a rear patio—perfect for relaxing or entertaining outdoors. | Inside, the spacious main-level family room flows seamlessly into the open-concept kitchen and dining area, ideal for gatherings and cozy nights in. Upstairs, the primary suite provides a private retreat with an en-suite bath for a spa-like experience. Two additional bedrooms and a full bath ensure plenty of space for family, guests, or even a home office. | At Creekside, enjoy on-site walking tra

Key facts

• Open-concept kitchen
• Primary suite
• En-suite bath

Tags

• LARGEST BACKYARD SPACES
• REAR PATIO
• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• PRIMARY SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATH
• ON-SITE WALKING TRAILS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $320k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-169 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $296k (7.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $276k (13.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $276k (13.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.7% in Ruckersville — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#318 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Greene County Public School District (town): math 40% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #88 of 131 in VA (top 67%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Nathanael Greene Primary (347 students, 68% FRL); William Monroe Middle (math 36% / reading 65%, grade C, #226 of 342 statewide, top 67%, 675 students, 67% FRL); William Monroe High (math 40% / reading 78%, grade C+, #256 of 319 statewide, top 81%, 957 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 32% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 185 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 204 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (34 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Greene County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($301k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $276,354 (13.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.26%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $317,520
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
45 Grayson Village Dr #177	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,470 (0%)	1mo	$324,630	$221	99
20 Grayson Village Dr	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,470 (0%)	2mo	$324,393	$221	97
30 Grayson Village Dr	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,470 (0%)	2mo	$309,990	$211	97
34 Grayson Village Dr	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,470 (0%)	3mo	$299,990	$204	96
40 Grayson Village Dr	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,470 (0%)	3mo	$316,730	$215	96
80 Sophie Kathryn Dr Lot 136	0.10mi	3/2.5	1,470 (0%)	0mo	$326,630	$222	96
84 Sophie Kathryn Dr Lot 137	0.10mi	3/2.5	1,470 (0%)	0mo	$308,990	$210	95
44 Grayson Village Dr	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,470 (0%)	3mo	$318,990	$217	95
76 Sophie Kathryn Dr	0.12mi	3/2.5	1,470 (0%)	0mo	$318,253	$216	94
28 Grayson Village Dr	0.15mi	3/2.5	1,470 (0%)	3mo	$299,990	$204	90
66 Grayson Village Dr	0.22mi	3/2.5	1,470 (0%)	3mo	$321,990	$219	87
56 Grayson Village Dr	0.21mi	3/2.5	1,470 (0%)	4mo	$297,490	$202	86

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-62,466
• Equity at exit: $47,703

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-67,717
• Equity at exit: $27,662

Cash invested: $89,582 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22923

• Home prices YoY: -3.6%
• Active inventory: 185
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,764 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$400 /mo · $4,799/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$141
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$580
• Net cashflow: $-169

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,977

Max offer price $295,509

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $52	-5% $-58	+0% $-169	+5% $-279	+10% $-390
Rent	-10% $-387	-5% $-278	+0% $-169	+5% $-60	+10% $50
Rate	-1.0pp $-8	-0.5pp $-87	base $-169	+0.5pp $-252	+1.0pp $-336

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,984
• Closing costs: $9,598
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
54 Mannie Ct Barboursville, VA	4.0	2.0	1680	$2,600	$1.55	14d	1	0.80mi
591 Preddy Creek Rd Barboursville, VA	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,400	$2.00	4d	1	0.98mi
32 Estes Ct Barboursville, VA	3.0	2.5	1400	$2,600	$1.86	14d	1	1.10mi
100 Terrace Greene Cir Barboursville, VA	2.0	2.0–2.5	1272	$2,099	$1.65	0d	23	1.19mi
6039 Seminole Trl Barboursville, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	981	$1,647	$1.68	0d	5	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $141 · $1,692/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-02-24
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-16
   listed $319,935 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,162
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,921
• − Property taxes: −$4,799
• − Insurance: −$1,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,653
• − Management: −$2,653
• − HOA: −$1,692
• − Depreciation: −$9,307
• Taxable loss: −$7,463
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,791
• After-tax cash flow: $-235/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This townhouse is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a spacious layout, fresh paint, and a well-maintained exterior, making it an attractive property for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting the exterior siding — Freshly painted siding can enhance the home's curb appeal and increase its resale value.
• Rental Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can attract more renters and increase rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Painting the exterior siding — Freshly painted siding can enhance the home's curb appeal and increase its resale value. ↑
• Rental Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can attract more renters and increase rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greene County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101710
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -37.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $59,129
• Composite: 45.22/100
• National rank: #2668
• State rank: #88 of 131 in VA

Livability — Ruckersville

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #318
• US rank: #11455

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Orange County · 21,992 people
• Metro: Charlottesville, VA
• Population (ZIP): 6,435
• Household income: $118,125
• Rent vs Own: 25.2% rent · 74.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 42.0

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,465 people
• By 2030: 20,958 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 21,619 · +5.6%
• By 2050: 21,699 · +6.0%
• By 2075: 21,656 · +5.8%
• By 2100: 20,156 · -1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Black 5% Two or more races 5% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Portuguese 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.0% · R 61.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.9pp toward R · 2008: -21.9pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+23.9 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+25.3 2008: R+21.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -11.41%
• Current HPI: 303.0348
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Charlottesville, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-24 Pending — CAAR
• 2025-12-16 Listed $319,935 CAAR