986 Keefer Rd · Churchill, OH 44420

$145,000

5 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,646 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1961 0.28 ac lot $88/sqft · 18% below area Est $177k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move-in ready home with tons of living space features updated bathrooms and kitchen, neutral paint and more! Updates include: carpet (August 2015), windows, siding, new landscaping (August 2015), laminate hardwood floors (2010), door and lighting fixtures (2012), garage door (2014), brick patio (2010), neutral paint. Also within the last year, the bathrooms have been tiled, new vanity and toilet, updated light fixtures.

Key facts

• 0.28 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1961

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with direct access; Garage faces front with garage door opener; Driveway; paved; Electricity to garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Vinyl siding; Asphalt/fiberglass roof; Home warranty included
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Asphalt/Fiberglass roof
• Exterior features: Patio; Privacy fencing; Workshop (separate structure)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms; Additional bedrooms on the second floor
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Partial, partially finished basement with walk-up access; Workshop (lean-to behind the garage); Family room
• Laundry & utility: Utility room in the lower level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $318 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $143k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 3.7% in Churchill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#708 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Liberty Local (suburban): math 30% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #555 of 656 in OH (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 129 units permitted in Trumbull County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Trumbull County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($143k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $142,825 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.41%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $176,513
• List price: $145,000
• Delta: -17.85%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1094 Churchill Rd	0.35mi	4/1.5 (-1)	1,728 (+5%)	1mo	$109,545	$63	70
1140 Keefer Rd	0.15mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,524 (-7%)	6mo	$155,000	$102	69
983 Beechwood Dr	0.40mi	4/1.5 (-1)	1,458 (-11%)	10mo	$175,000	$120	49
1661 Keefer Rd	0.71mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,525 (-7%)	11mo	$315,000	$207	38
1425 Keefer Rd	0.47mi	4/1.0 (-1)	1,400 (-15%)	9mo	$200,000	$143	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-3,205
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.58×
• Total profit: $23,399
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44420

• Home prices YoY: -16.8%
• Active inventory: 58
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,665 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$176 /mo · $2,116/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$350
• Net cashflow: $318

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,262

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
833 Lawrence Ave Girard, OH	4.0	1.0	1312	$1,450	$1.11	13d	1	1.07mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-04
   historical Contingent 1038-char remark
2. 2026-05-01
   listed $145,000 Active 1038-char remark
3. 2016-06-20
   historical 423-char remark

   Show marketing remark (423 chars)

   Move-in ready home with tons of living space features updated bathrooms and kitchen, neutral paint and more! Updates include: carpet (August 2015), windows, siding, new landscaping (August 2015), laminate hardwood floors (2010), door and lighting fixtures (2012), garage door (2014), brick patio (2010), neutral paint. Also within the last year, the bathrooms have been tiled, new vanity and toilet, updated light fixtures.

4. 2016-06-13
   soldstatus $73,000
5. 2016-05-24
   status Pending 423-char remark

   Show marketing remark (423 chars)

   Move-in ready home with tons of living space features updated bathrooms and kitchen, neutral paint and more! Updates include: carpet (August 2015), windows, siding, new landscaping (August 2015), laminate hardwood floors (2010), door and lighting fixtures (2012), garage door (2014), brick patio (2010), neutral paint. Also within the last year, the bathrooms have been tiled, new vanity and toilet, updated light fixtures.

6. 2016-05-24
   soldstatus $73,000 Sold 423-char remark

   Show marketing remark (423 chars)

   Move-in ready home with tons of living space features updated bathrooms and kitchen, neutral paint and more! Updates include: carpet (August 2015), windows, siding, new landscaping (August 2015), laminate hardwood floors (2010), door and lighting fixtures (2012), garage door (2014), brick patio (2010), neutral paint. Also within the last year, the bathrooms have been tiled, new vanity and toilet, updated light fixtures.

7. 2016-05-15
   historical Contingent 423-char remark

   Show marketing remark (423 chars)

   Move-in ready home with tons of living space features updated bathrooms and kitchen, neutral paint and more! Updates include: carpet (August 2015), windows, siding, new landscaping (August 2015), laminate hardwood floors (2010), door and lighting fixtures (2012), garage door (2014), brick patio (2010), neutral paint. Also within the last year, the bathrooms have been tiled, new vanity and toilet, updated light fixtures.

8. 2016-01-24
   price $89,900 423-char remark

   Show marketing remark (423 chars)

   Move-in ready home with tons of living space features updated bathrooms and kitchen, neutral paint and more! Updates include: carpet (August 2015), windows, siding, new landscaping (August 2015), laminate hardwood floors (2010), door and lighting fixtures (2012), garage door (2014), brick patio (2010), neutral paint. Also within the last year, the bathrooms have been tiled, new vanity and toilet, updated light fixtures.

9. 2015-10-12
   price $99,000 423-char remark

   Show marketing remark (423 chars)

   Move-in ready home with tons of living space features updated bathrooms and kitchen, neutral paint and more! Updates include: carpet (August 2015), windows, siding, new landscaping (August 2015), laminate hardwood floors (2010), door and lighting fixtures (2012), garage door (2014), brick patio (2010), neutral paint. Also within the last year, the bathrooms have been tiled, new vanity and toilet, updated light fixtures.

10. 2015-09-09
    listed $124,900 Active 423-char remark

    Show marketing remark (423 chars)

    Move-in ready home with tons of living space features updated bathrooms and kitchen, neutral paint and more! Updates include: carpet (August 2015), windows, siding, new landscaping (August 2015), laminate hardwood floors (2010), door and lighting fixtures (2012), garage door (2014), brick patio (2010), neutral paint. Also within the last year, the bathrooms have been tiled, new vanity and toilet, updated light fixtures.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,116 · $176/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,189 · $182/mo
• Expected delta: +$73/yr (+$6/mo · 3.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,980
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$2,116
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,598
• − Management: −$1,598
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable income: $1,602
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$385
• After-tax cash flow: $3,434/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Liberty Local
• NCES district ID: 3905019
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $48,604
• Composite: 30.59/100
• National rank: #6202
• State rank: #555 of 656 in OH

Livability — Churchill

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #708
• US rank: #12768

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Trumbull County · 61,158 people
• City population: 15,066
• Metro: Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA
• Population (ZIP): 15,293
• Household income: $61,707
• Rent vs Own: 25.6% rent · 74.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 351.0

Population outlook (Trumbull County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 191,696 people
• By 2030: 184,015 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 166,810 · -13.0%
• By 2050: 149,857 · -21.8%
• By 2075: 115,769 · -39.6%
• By 2100: 83,617 · -56.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Subsaharan African 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Trumbull

• 2024 margin: R (+16.8) · D 41.2% · R 58.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.2pp toward R · 2008: 22.4pp · 2024: -16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.8 2020: R+10.6 2016: R+6.4 2012: D+22.2 2008: D+22.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.72%
• Current HPI: 221.5618
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+30.5% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Sold (Public Records) $163,000 Public Records
• 2026-05-27 Sold (MLS) $163,000 MLSNOW
• 2026-05-23 Pending — MLSNOW
• 2026-05-04 Contingent — MLSNOW
• 2026-05-01 Listed $145,000 MLSNOW
• 2016-06-20 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2016-06-13 Sold (Public Records) $73,000 Public Records
• 2016-05-24 Pending — MLSNOW
• 2016-05-24 Sold (MLS) $73,000 MLSNOW
• 2016-05-15 Contingent — MLSNOW
• 2016-01-24 Price Changed $89,900 MLSNOW
• 2015-10-12 Price Changed $99,000 MLSNOW
• 2015-09-09 Listed $124,900 MLSNOW

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,116 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.