Capri II Plan · Conroe, TX 77318

$367,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,540 sqft · SingleFamily · 30 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Cash flow +2.8/30.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

4-5 Bedrooms | 2.5-4 Baths | Approx. 2,540 Sq. Ft. Come home to The Woodlands Hills, a serene master-planned community in Willis, TX. The Capri II blends elegance and flexibility with a spacious two-story design that adapts to a variety of lifestyles. From its open layout to its versatile design options, The Capri II offers a thoughtful balance of function and sophistication, perfect for those seeking a home that's as adaptable as it is inviting. An open-concept first floor connects the great room, dining area, and chef-inspired kitchen, creating an inviting flow that makes everyday life effortless and social occasions memorable.

Key facts

• Flex space
• Covered patio
• Large island

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT FIRST FLOOR
• CHEF INSPIRED KITCHEN
• LARGE ISLAND
• WALK IN PANTRY
• COVERED PATIO
• FLEX SPACE

🏗️ New construction. The $367,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $538,501.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $368k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-22k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $279k (24.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $244k (33.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $244k (33.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.3% vs local median 3.4% in Conroe — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: W Lloyd Meador El (math 45% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,155 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 617 students, 43% FRL); Robert P Brabham Middle (math 33% / reading 41%, grade F, #756 of 1,662 statewide, top 47%, 1,117 students, 52% FRL); Willis H S (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,521 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 1718 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 66d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 71% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($362k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $243,967 (33.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.45% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.28%
• DSCR: 0.36
• GRM: 18.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $538,501
• List price: $367,990
• Delta: -31.66%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
608 Spotted Sunfish Dr	0.39mi	4/3.0	2,633 (+4%)	2mo	$398,897	$151	72
359 Skyline Ridge Dr	0.33mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,630 (+4%)	2mo	$329,000	$125	70
211 Warbler Song Dr	0.55mi	4/3.0	2,507 (-1%)	2mo	$404,990	$162	68
218 Woods Rose Ct	0.43mi	4/3.5	2,701 (+6%)	2mo	$395,999	$147	64
531 Carina Gaze Dr	0.21mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,870 (+13%)	1mo	$410,000	$143	60
402 Elf Owl Ct	0.59mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,447 (-4%)	1mo	$399,900	$163	60
115 Lukewood Cir	0.55mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,425 (-4%)	0mo	$365,000	$151	60
243 Brecon Buff Dr	0.50mi	4/3.5	2,796 (+10%)	1mo	$367,990	$132	55
348 Rockrose Path	0.54mi	4/3.0	2,260 (-11%)	3mo	$359,000	$159	52
10855 Sunflower Dr	0.74mi	4/2.5	2,788 (+10%)	1mo	$399,999	$143	49
510 Tawny Rim Dr	0.54mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,220 (-13%)	2mo	$359,900	$162	47
171 Silva Creek Trl	0.74mi	4/2.5	2,161 (-15%)	0mo	$359,999	$167	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -46.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.38×
• Total profit: $-208,641
• Equity at exit: $80,292

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.36×
• Total profit: $-356,301
• Equity at exit: $46,560

Cash invested: $150,780 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 228 active · 63 under contract
• Months of supply: 26.8 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $431,990 ($179/sqft)
• Median days on market: 85 d
• This list price: 13% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +18.1% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77318

• Home prices YoY: -32.7%
• Rents YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 1718
• Price-to-rent: 12.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,440 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,824
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$673 /mo · $8,078/yr
• Insurance: −$224
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$512
• Net cashflow: $-1,794

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,711

Max offer price $278,889

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,422	-5% $-1,608	+0% $-1,794	+5% $-1,980	+10% $-2,166
Rent	-10% $-1,987	-5% $-1,890	+0% $-1,794	+5% $-1,698	+10% $-1,601
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,523	-0.5pp $-1,657	base $-1,794	+0.5pp $-1,934	+1.0pp $-2,076

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $134,625
• Closing costs: $16,155
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
347 Skyline Ridge Dr Willis, TX	3.0	3.0	3000	$3,100	$1.03	184d	1	0.33mi
142 Scarlet Maple Ct Willis, TX	4.0	3.0	2320	$2,516	$1.08	49d	1	0.39mi
272 Warbler Song Dr Willis, TX	4.0	2.5	2200	$1,277	$0.58	88d	1	0.45mi
272 Warbler Song Dr Willis, TX	4.0	2.5	2200	$1,277	$0.58	10d	1	0.45mi
202 Brecon Buff Dr Unit 1596557P Willis, TX	4.0	3.0	2701	$6,197	$2.29	1d	1	0.60mi
322 Fanpalm Ct Unit Na Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	2000	$2,500	$1.25	65d	1	0.62mi
216 Elianne Lace Ct Willis, TX	5.0	2.5	2962	$3,095	$1.04	94d	1	0.83mi

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $367,990 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $367,990 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $367,990 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $367,990 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $367,990 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $367,990 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $367,990 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $367,990 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $367,990 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $367,990 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $367,990 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $367,990 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $367,990 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $367,990 Active 16 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $367,990 Active 15 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $367,990 Active 14 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $367,990 Active 13 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $367,990 Active 12 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $367,990 Active 11 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $367,990 Active 10 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $367,990 Active 9 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $367,990 Active 8 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $367,990 Active 7 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $367,990 Active 6 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $367,990 Active 5 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $367,990 Active 4 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $367,990 Active 3 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $367,990 Active 2 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on marketlisting id $367,990 Active 1 DOM
30. 2026-09-26
    days on market $367,990 Active 346 DOM
31. 2026-09-25
    days on market $367,990 Active 345 DOM
32. 2026-09-24
    days on market $367,990 Active 344 DOM
33. 2026-09-23
    days on market $367,990 Active 343 DOM
34. 2026-09-22
    days on market $367,990 Active 342 DOM
35. 2026-09-21
    days on market $367,990 Active 341 DOM
36. 2026-09-20
    days on market $367,990 Active 340 DOM
37. 2026-09-19
    days on market $367,990 Active 339 DOM
38. 2026-09-18
    days on market $367,990 Active 338 DOM
39. 2026-09-17
    days on market $367,990 Active 337 DOM
40. 2026-09-16
    days on market $367,990 Active 336 DOM
41. 2026-09-15
    days on market $367,990 Active 335 DOM
42. 2026-09-14
    days on market $367,990 Active 334 DOM
43. 2026-09-13
    days on market $367,990 Active 333 DOM
44. 2026-09-12
    days on market $367,990 Active 332 DOM
45. 2026-09-11
    days on market $367,990 Active 331 DOM
46. 2026-09-05
    days on market $367,990 Active 325 DOM
47. 2026-09-04
    days on market $367,990 Active 324 DOM
48. 2026-09-03
    days on market $367,990 Active 323 DOM
49. 2026-08-29
    days on market $367,990 Active 318 DOM
50. 2026-08-28
    days on market $367,990 Active 317 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,276
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,164
• − Property taxes: −$8,078
• − Insurance: −$2,693
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,342
• − Management: −$2,342
• − Depreciation: −$15,665
• Taxable loss: −$32,008
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,682
• After-tax cash flow: $-13,847/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. The highest-ROI updates would be painting the exterior and interior walls, and landscaping improvements to enhance curb appeal and add value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 38/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary W Lloyd Meador El F TX #1,155/4,322 Nat'l #16,061/41,679 Middle Robert P Brabham Middle F TX #756/1,662 Nat'l #6,830/14,009 High Willis H S F TX #1,029/1,632 Nat'l #10,333/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Conroe, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
• City population: 38,421
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,792
• Household income: $92,415
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 0% of renters

---

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.58%
• Current HPI: 236.256
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom