Capri II Plan · Conroe, TX 77318

$367,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,540 sqft · SingleFamily · 344 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Cash flow +3.3/30.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

4-5 Bedrooms | 2.5-4 Baths | Approx. 2,540 Sq. Ft. The Capri II blends elegance and flexibility with a spacious two-story design that adapts to how families live, work, and entertain today. From its open layout to its versatile design options, The Capri II offers a thoughtful balance of function and sophistication-perfect for those seeking a home that's as adaptable as it is inviting. An open-concept first floor connects the great room, dining area, and chef-inspired kitchen, creating an inviting flow that makes everyday life effortless and social occasions memorable. The large island and walk-in pantry keep the heart of the home organized and functional, while nearby access to the covered patio extends living outdoors. Located at the front of the home a flex space or optional study provides a great place to focus on work or hobbies. Other personalization choices include an optional fireplace in the great room, a fifth bedroom and full bath in lieu of the study, or an extended covered patio for outdoor entertaining. The primary suite on the main level provides a true retreat with a spa-style bath, dual vanities, and an expansive walk-in closet. Optional upgrades include an enhanced owner's bath with a soaking tub to personalize relaxation. For added convenience the laundry room is located on the same level. Upstairs, three additional bedrooms offer comfort for family or guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Large island
• Flex room

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• FLEX ROOM
• LARGE ISLAND
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $367,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $540,029.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $368k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-20k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $296k (19.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $259k (29.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $259k (29.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.5% vs local median 3.5% in Conroe — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: W Lloyd Meador El (math 45% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,155 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 617 students, 43% FRL); Robert P Brabham Middle (math 33% / reading 41%, grade F, #756 of 1,662 statewide, top 47%, 1,117 students, 52% FRL); Willis H S (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,521 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 1569 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 43d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 344 days — a 12% lower offer ($324k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $258,696 (29.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 344 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.48% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.40%
• DSCR: 0.40
• GRM: 17.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $540,029
• List price: $367,990
• Delta: -31.86%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
608 Spotted Sunfish Dr	0.39mi	4/3.0	2,633 (+4%)	1mo	$398,897	$151	73
359 Skyline Ridge Dr	0.33mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,630 (+4%)	0mo	$329,000	$125	71
246 Congo Bay Cir	0.48mi	4/3.0	2,587 (+2%)	2mo	$477,534	$185	71
211 Warbler Song Dr	0.55mi	4/3.0	2,507 (-1%)	1mo	$404,990	$162	69
111 Yellow Perch Way	0.35mi	4/3.0	2,368 (-7%)	1mo	$415,900	$176	69
218 Woods Rose Ct	0.43mi	4/3.5	2,701 (+6%)	0mo	$395,999	$147	65
526 Tawny Rim Dr	0.50mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,447 (-4%)	3mo	$359,900	$147	63
506 Tawny Rim Dr	0.55mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,447 (-4%)	3mo	$391,900	$160	61
218 Ayana Forest Trl	0.43mi	4/3.0	2,301 (-9%)	3mo	$364,900	$159	60
348 Rockrose Path	0.54mi	4/3.0	2,260 (-11%)	1mo	$359,000	$159	53
510 Tawny Rim Dr	0.54mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,220 (-13%)	1mo	$359,900	$162	48
406 Elf Owl Ct	0.59mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,220 (-13%)	2mo	$408,900	$184	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -44.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.34×
• Total profit: $-202,581
• Equity at exit: $80,520

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.28×
• Total profit: $-344,006
• Equity at exit: $46,692

Cash invested: $151,208 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 211 active · 49 under contract
• Months of supply: 23.0 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $430,990 ($177/sqft)
• Median days on market: 121 d
• This list price: 15% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +20.4% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77318

• Home prices YoY: -32.7%
• Rents YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 1569
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,587 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,832
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$675 /mo · $8,100/yr
• Insurance: −$225
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$543
• Net cashflow: $-1,688

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,724

Max offer price $295,726

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,315	-5% $-1,502	+0% $-1,688	+5% $-1,875	+10% $-2,062
Rent	-10% $-1,893	-5% $-1,791	+0% $-1,688	+5% $-1,586	+10% $-1,484
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,416	-0.5pp $-1,551	base $-1,688	+0.5pp $-1,828	+1.0pp $-1,971

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $135,007
• Closing costs: $16,201
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
347 Skyline Ridge Dr Willis, TX	3.0	3.0	3000	$3,100	$1.03	139d	1	0.33mi
142 Scarlet Maple Ct Willis, TX	4.0	3.0	2320	$2,516	$1.08	4d	1	0.39mi
272 Warbler Song Dr Willis, TX	4.0	2.5	2200	$1,277	$0.58	43d	1	0.45mi
202 Brecon Buff Dr Unit 1596557P Willis, TX	4.0	3.0	2701	$6,693	$2.48	0d	1	0.60mi
322 Fanpalm Ct Unit Na Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	2000	$2,500	$1.25	20d	1	0.62mi
216 Elianne Lace Ct Willis, TX	5.0	2.5	2962	$3,095	$1.04	49d	1	0.83mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $367,990 Active 344 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $367,990 Active 343 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $367,990 Active 342 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $367,990 Active 341 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $367,990 Active 340 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $367,990 Active 339 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $367,990 Active 338 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $367,990 Active 337 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $367,990 Active 336 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $367,990 Active 335 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $367,990 Active 334 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $367,990 Active 333 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $367,990 Active 332 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $367,990 Active 331 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $367,990 Active 325 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $367,990 Active 324 DOM
17. 2026-09-03
    days on market $367,990 Active 323 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $367,990 Active 318 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $367,990 Active 317 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $367,990 Active 316 DOM
21. 2026-08-25
    days on market $367,990 Active 314 DOM
22. 2026-08-24
    days on market $367,990 Active 313 DOM
23. 2026-08-23
    days on market $367,990 Active 312 DOM
24. 2026-08-22
    days on market $367,990 Active 311 DOM
25. 2026-08-21
    days on market $367,990 Active 310 DOM
26. 2026-08-20
    days on market $367,990 Active 309 DOM
27. 2026-08-19
    days on market $367,990 Active 308 DOM
28. 2026-08-18
    days on market $367,990 Active 307 DOM
29. 2026-08-17
    days on market $367,990 Active 306 DOM
30. 2026-08-16
    days on market $367,990 Active 305 DOM
31. 2026-08-15
    days on market $367,990 Active 304 DOM
32. 2026-08-14
    days on market $367,990 Active 303 DOM
33. 2026-08-13
    days on market $367,990 Active 302 DOM
34. 2026-08-12
    days on market $367,990 Active 301 DOM
35. 2026-08-11
    days on market $367,990 Active 300 DOM
36. 2026-08-10
    days on market $367,990 Active 299 DOM
37. 2026-08-09
    days on market $367,990 Active 298 DOM
38. 2026-08-08
    days on market $367,990 Active 297 DOM
39. 2026-08-06
    days on market $367,990 Active 295 DOM
40. 2026-08-05
    days on market $367,990 Active 294 DOM
41. 2026-08-04
    days on market $367,990 Active 293 DOM
42. 2026-08-03
    days on market $367,990 Active 292 DOM
43. 2026-07-31
    days on market $367,990 Active 289 DOM
44. 2026-07-30
    days on market $367,990 Active 287 DOM
45. 2026-07-28
    days on market $367,990 Active 286 DOM
46. 2026-07-26
    days on market $367,990 Active 284 DOM
47. 2026-07-24
    days on market $367,990 Active 282 DOM
48. 2026-07-23
    days on market $367,990 Active 281 DOM
49. 2026-07-22
    days on market $367,990 Active 280 DOM
50. 2026-07-21
    days on market $367,990 Active 279 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,044
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,250
• − Property taxes: −$8,100
• − Insurance: −$2,700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,483
• − Management: −$2,483
• − Depreciation: −$15,710
• Taxable loss: −$30,684
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,364
• After-tax cash flow: $-12,896/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. The highest-ROI updates would be painting the exterior and interior walls, and landscaping improvements to enhance curb appeal and add value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 38/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary W Lloyd Meador El F TX #1,155/4,322 Nat'l #16,061/41,679 Middle Robert P Brabham Middle F TX #756/1,662 Nat'l #6,830/14,009 High Willis H S F TX #1,029/1,632 Nat'l #10,333/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Conroe, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,792
• Household income: $92,415
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 0% of renters

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Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

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Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.58%
• Current HPI: 236.256
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $357,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-31 Price Changed $361,990 Zillow
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $346,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-15 Listed $351,990 Zillow