834 Tecumseh Dr · Shepherdsville, KY 40165

$235,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,185 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 2007 7,405 sqft lot Est $255k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• ARV discount +11.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome Home! Fantastic split floor plan ranch located in Bullitt Co is ready for a new owner. The cute front porch curb appeal. Inside, a spacious living room showcases a trey ceiling and is open to the dining area. The kitchen is well equipped with plenty of cabinets and counter space. On the left side of the home, you'll find the large primary bedroom and bathroom with a large walk-in closet. Crossing over to the right side of the home, there are two bedrooms and a full bathroom. Out back, is the deck and mature tree line that provides a woodsy feel. This home won't last long so schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• 7,405 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 2007

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $6 ($77/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (20.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $188k (20.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.5% in Shepherdsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#119 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Bullitt County (suburban): math 29% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #55 of 165 in KY (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 265 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 380 units permitted in Bullitt County in 2024 (8 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bullitt County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $185k; 27% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $188,063 (20.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.12%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $254,775
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
834 Tecumseh Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,185 (0%)	0mo	$235,000	$198	100
980 Tecumseh Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,092 (-8%)	2mo	$235,000	$215	77
365 Tecumseh Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,157 (-2%)	2mo	$267,000	$231	77
187 Drake Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,143 (-4%)	1mo	$235,900	$206	75
205 Tecumseh Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,092 (-8%)	2mo	$232,000	$212	63
172 Dogwood Trl	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,188 (+0%)	3mo	$240,000	$202	63
735 Beech Grove Rd	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,220 (+3%)	3mo	$238,000	$195	61
403 Tecumseh Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,012 (-15%)	1mo	$222,900	$220	60
201 Ashley Blvd	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,268 (+7%)	1mo	$280,000	$221	54
143 Deerfield Ct	0.70mi	3/1.5	1,088 (-8%)	1mo	$210,750	$194	51
420 Beechcliff Cir	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,025 (-14%)	4mo	$225,000	$220	51
178 Wooded Oak Ct	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,008 (-15%)	2mo	$217,500	$216	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-37,730
• Equity at exit: $35,039

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-32,573
• Equity at exit: $20,319

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40165

• Home prices YoY: -26.9%
• Active inventory: 265
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,881 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$149 /mo · $1,788/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$395
• Net cashflow: $6

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,872

Max offer price $235,000

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $139	-5% $73	+0% $6	+5% $-60	+10% $-127
Rent	-10% $-142	-5% $-68	+0% $6	+5% $81	+10% $155
Rate	-1.0pp $125	-0.5pp $66	base $6	+0.5pp $-54	+1.0pp $-116

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
388 Tecumseh Dr Shepherdsville, KY	3.0	2.0	1204	$1,815	$1.51	24d	1	0.37mi
309 Shannon Ln Unit SL8 Shepherdsville, KY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	24d	1	1.17mi
309 Shannon Ln Unit SL1 Shepherdsville, KY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	16d	1	1.17mi
1701 Saltwell Springs Cir Shepherdsville, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1075	$2,275	$2.12	24d	1	1.21mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-04-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-13
   listed $235,000 Active
3. 2025-12-23
   historical
4. 2025-11-07
   listed $238,000 Active
5. 2021-08-23
   soldstatus $185,000
6. 2021-08-19
   soldstatus $185,000 Closed 618-char remark

   Show marketing remark (618 chars)

   Welcome Home! Fantastic split floor plan ranch located in Bullitt Co is ready for a new owner. The cute front porch curb appeal. Inside, a spacious living room showcases a trey ceiling and is open to the dining area. The kitchen is well equipped with plenty of cabinets and counter space. On the left side of the home, you'll find the large primary bedroom and bathroom with a large walk-in closet. Crossing over to the right side of the home, there are two bedrooms and a full bathroom. Out back, is the deck and mature tree line that provides a woodsy feel. This home won't last long so schedule your showing today!

7. 2021-07-14
   status Pending 618-char remark

   Show marketing remark (618 chars)

   Welcome Home! Fantastic split floor plan ranch located in Bullitt Co is ready for a new owner. The cute front porch curb appeal. Inside, a spacious living room showcases a trey ceiling and is open to the dining area. The kitchen is well equipped with plenty of cabinets and counter space. On the left side of the home, you'll find the large primary bedroom and bathroom with a large walk-in closet. Crossing over to the right side of the home, there are two bedrooms and a full bathroom. Out back, is the deck and mature tree line that provides a woodsy feel. This home won't last long so schedule your showing today!

8. 2021-07-09
   listed $174,900 Active 618-char remark

   Show marketing remark (618 chars)

   Welcome Home! Fantastic split floor plan ranch located in Bullitt Co is ready for a new owner. The cute front porch curb appeal. Inside, a spacious living room showcases a trey ceiling and is open to the dining area. The kitchen is well equipped with plenty of cabinets and counter space. On the left side of the home, you'll find the large primary bedroom and bathroom with a large walk-in closet. Crossing over to the right side of the home, there are two bedrooms and a full bathroom. Out back, is the deck and mature tree line that provides a woodsy feel. This home won't last long so schedule your showing today!

9. 2013-02-22
   soldstatus $113,000
10. 2013-02-22
    soldstatus $113,000
11. 2012-10-16
    listed $115,000
12. 2010-05-30
    historical
13. 2009-12-03
    listed $116,000
14. 2007-08-20
    soldstatus $114,900
15. 2007-04-04
    historical
16. 2007-02-15
    listed $119,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,788 · $149/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,021 · $168/mo
• Expected delta: +$233/yr (+$19/mo · 13.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,568
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$1,788
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,805
• − Management: −$1,805
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$4,006
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$961
• After-tax cash flow: $1,039/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bullitt County
• NCES district ID: 2100750
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $55,009
• Composite: 30.78/100
• National rank: #6151
• State rank: #55 of 165 in KY

Livability — Shepherdsville

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #119
• US rank: #5674

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shepherdsville, KY
• County: Bullitt County · 62,065 people
• City population: 38,403
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 38,403
• Household income: $79,540
• Rent vs Own: 17.3% rent · 82.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 800.0

Population outlook (Bullitt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 89,555 people
• By 2030: 94,389 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 102,759 · +14.7%
• By 2050: 108,955 · +21.7%
• By 2075: 121,898 · +36.1%
• By 2100: 126,383 · +41.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 3% Black 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Iranian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bullitt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 23.8% · R 74.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.7pp toward R · 2008: -32.3pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+48.0 2016: R+49.8 2012: R+35.7 2008: R+32.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -90.91%
• Current HPI: 247.1595
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+96.0% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2026-03-13 Listed $235,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-12-23 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2025-11-07 Listed $238,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2021-08-23 Sold (Public Records) $185,000 Public Records
• 2021-08-19 Sold (MLS) $185,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2021-07-14 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2021-07-09 Listed $174,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2013-02-22 Sold (Public Records) $113,000 Public Records
• 2013-02-22 Sold (MLS) $113,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2012-10-16 Listed $115,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2010-05-30 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2009-12-03 Listed $116,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2007-08-20 Sold (Public Records) $114,900 Public Records
• 2007-04-04 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2007-02-15 Listed $119,900 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,788 · -17.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.