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12721 W Greenway Rd #207
B Composite 73.8
Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • Cash flow +30.0/30.0
  • ARV discount +15.0/15.0
  • 1% rule +10.0/10.0
  • DSCR +10.0/10.0
  • Condition / age +4.0/5.0
  • Livability +3.2/5.0
  • Schools +3.1/10.0
  • Appreciation +2.5/10.0
  • Rent growth +2.5/5.0
  • Manufactured-home adj. -6.4

$72,990

12721 W Greenway Rd #207 · El Mirage, AZ 85335
3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,103 sqft · Manufactured · 63 Days on market
Manufactured home Built 2015 Good condition $66/sqft · 18% below area Est $89k · 18% under

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home located in the desirable Rosewood Estates community! This well-maintained home features two convenient storage sheds and is nestled in a beautiful neighborhood offering exclusive access to a private park and refreshing community pool. Enjoy comfortable living in a peaceful community with great amenities perfect for relaxing and spending time with family and friends.

Key facts

  • 7 parking spots
  • Community pool
  • Built 2015

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $73k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $622 ($7k/yr) — positive.
  • The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
  • Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $73k).
  • Recommended offer: $69k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
  • Cap rate 16.5% vs local median 4.3% in El Mirage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 63/100 on livability (#112 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
  • Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
  • Zoned schools: Surprise Elementary School (math 27% / reading 38%, grade F, #502 of 1,109 statewide, top 45%, 771 students, 72% FRL); Valley Vista High School (math 25% / reading 32%, grade F, #133 of 381 statewide, top 35%, 2,464 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 41% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
  • Market conditions: Rents flat; 237 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 65% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $504 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
  • At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.1% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer $68,610 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
  3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
  5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
1.95%
Cap rate
16.52%
Cash-on-cash
36.53%
DSCR
2.63
GRM
4.3

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$88,502
List price
$72,990
Delta
-17.53%
Verdict
UNDERPRICED
Comps
8 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
12721 W Greenway Rd #184 0.00mi 3/2.0 1,140 (+3%) 5mo $48,000 $42 90
12721 W Greenway Way #200 0.12mi 3/2.0 1,140 (+3%) 6mo $73,000 $64 83
12721 W Greenway Rd #24 0.12mi 3/2.0 1,088 (-1%) 18mo $85,000 $78 77
15780 N Sunny Ln 0.43mi 3/2.0 1,120 (+2%) 6mo $197,000 $176 73
12721 W Greenway Rd #80 0.12mi 3/2.0 1,216 (+10%) 11mo $83,990 $69 68
12721 W Greenway Rd #136 0.12mi 2/2.0 (-1) 1,040 (-6%) 16mo $98,000 $94 66
12721 W Greenway Rd #6 0.12mi 3/2.0 1,216 (+10%) 16mo $72,000 $59 64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
29.0%
Equity multiple
2.16×
Total profit
$23,750
Equity at exit
$10,883
10-year hold
IRR
34.6%
Equity multiple
3.74×
Total profit
$56,037
Equity at exit
$6,311

Cash invested: $20,437 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Arizona
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.
Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
6 active · 2 under contract
Months of supply
9.0 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$67,750 ($59/sqft)
Median days on market
97 d
This list price
67% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking
+35.1% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 85335

Home prices YoY
-13.3%
Rents YoY
0.1%
Active inventory
237
Price-to-rent
4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$1,426 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$383
Tax est. 1.5%
$91 /mo · $1,095/yr
Insurance
$30
HOA
$0
Lot rent leased land?
$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$299
Net cashflow
$622

Break-even live

Break-even rent $639
Max offer price $72,990
Occupancy floor 51%

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $673 -5% $647 +0% $622 +5% $597 +10% $572
Rent -10% $510 -5% $566 +0% $622 +5% $679 +10% $735
Rate -1.0pp $659 -0.5pp $641 base $622 +0.5pp $603 +1.0pp $584

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$18,248
Closing costs
$2,190
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 40 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
12945 W Greenway Rd El Mirage, AZ 2.0 2.0 1060 $1,300 $1.23 43d 3 0.22mi
12574 W Lisbon Ln El Mirage, AZ 3.0 2.0 1058 $1,700 $1.61 100d 1 0.25mi
12574 W Lisbon Ln El Mirage, AZ 3.0 2.0 1058 $1,700 $1.61 89d 1 0.25mi
15606 N Verde St Surprise, AZ 2.0 2.0 900 $1,575 $1.75 19d 1 0.36mi
15426 N Cactus Ln Surprise, AZ 3.0 1.0 1376 $1,634 $1.19 139d 1 0.40mi
12438 W Hearn Rd El Mirage, AZ 3.0 2.0 1308 $1,595 $1.22 94d 1 0.44mi
12438 W Hearn Rd El Mirage, AZ 3.0 2.0 1308 $1,595 $1.22 119d 1 0.44mi
13029 W Saint Moritz Ln El Mirage, AZ 3.0 2.0 1308 $1,680 $1.28 4d 1 0.46mi
15009 N Gil Balcome Surprise, AZ 3.0 2.0 1355 $1,695 $1.25 19d 1 0.48mi
13145 W Desert Ln Surprise, AZ 3.0 2.0 1500 $1,989 $1.33 82d 1 0.51mi
15427 N Jerry St Surprise, AZ 2.0 1.5 920 $1,450 $1.58 80d 1 0.51mi
15427 N Jerry St Surprise, AZ 2.0 1.5 920 $1,450 $1.58 69d 1 0.51mi
13153 W Mauna Loa Ln Surprise, AZ 3.0 2.0 1474 $1,950 $1.32 89d 1 0.55mi
13153 W Mauna Loa Ln Surprise, AZ 3.0 2.0 1474 $1,950 $1.32 61d 1 0.55mi
13200 W Desert Ln Surprise, AZ 3.0 2.0 1280 $1,595 $1.25 33d 1 0.58mi
13200 W Desert Ln Surprise, AZ 3.0 2.0 1280 $1,595 $1.25 24d 1 0.58mi
13216 W Mauna Loa Ln Surprise, AZ 3.0 2.0 1474 $1,950 $1.32 10d 1 0.59mi
15620 N El Mirage Rd Surprise, AZ 3.0 2.5 1310 $1,649 $1.26 55d 2 0.60mi
14417 N Gil Balcome Surprise, AZ 3.0 2.0 1446 $1,900 $1.31 89d 1 0.66mi
12741 W Tasha Dr Surprise, AZ 2.0 1.0 750 $1,250 $1.67 54d 1 0.67mi
13214 W Tara Ln Surprise, AZ 3.0 2.0 1500 $2,022 $1.35 0d 1 0.67mi
13006 W Redfield Rd El Mirage, AZ 3.0 2.0 1308 $1,716 $1.31 75d 1 0.70mi
13233 W Ironwood St Surprise, AZ 3.0 2.0 1479 $1,935 $1.31 6d 1 0.70mi
12817 W Cottonwood St Unit 1 Surprise, AZ 2.0 1.0 725 $1,300 $1.79 100d 1 0.72mi
13344 W Desert Ln Surprise, AZ 3.0 2.0 1280 $1,895 $1.48 19d 1 0.74mi
13344 W Desert Ln Surprise, AZ 3.0 2.0 1280 $1,895 $1.48 37d 1 0.74mi
13344 W Desert Ln Surprise, AZ 3.0 2.0 1280 $1,750 $1.37 4d 1 0.74mi
13344 W Desert Ln Surprise, AZ 3.0 2.0 1280 $1,750 $1.37 6d 1 0.74mi
13407 W Port au Prince Ln Surprise, AZ 3.0 2.0 1412 $1,735 $1.23 10d 1 0.76mi
13314 W Mauna Loa Ln Surprise, AZ 3.0 2.0 1252 $2,375 $1.90 19d 1 0.76mi
13314 W Mauna Loa Ln Surprise, AZ 3.0 2.0 1252 $2,355 $1.88 139d 1 0.76mi
13015 W Via Camille El Mirage, AZ 3.0 2.0 1308 $1,686 $1.29 40d 1 0.77mi
13223 W Desert Rock Dr Surprise, AZ 3.0 2.0 1437 $1,800 $1.25 33d 1 0.81mi
13223 W Desert Rock Dr Surprise, AZ 3.0 2.0 1437 $2,000 $1.39 74d 1 0.81mi
16520 N Greasewood St Surprise, AZ 3.0 2.5 1267 $1,772 $1.40 0d 11 0.82mi
16520 N Greasewood St Surprise, AZ 2.0–3.0 2.5 1267 $1,850 $1.46 43d 14 0.82mi
14401 N Alto St Unit A El Mirage, AZ 2.0 1.0 928 $1,600 $1.72 19d 1 0.85mi
13148 W Redfield Rd Surprise, AZ 3.0 2.0 1372 $1,855 $1.35 89d 1 0.87mi
16222 N 123rd Dr Surprise, AZ 3.0 2.0 879 $1,700 $1.93 44d 1 0.88mi
13220 W Calavar Rd Surprise, AZ 3.0 2.0 1132 $1,695 $1.50 94d 1 0.93mi

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community
No association feesLand lease ($890.25 monthly)Community poolCommunity spa (heated)Playground

Exterior

Parking
3 open parking spaces4 covered parking spaces4 carport spaces
Security
Gated community
Utilities
City waterPublic sewer
Home design
Manufactured/mobile homeLeasehold ownership
Construction
Metal sidingWood frame constructionMetal roofBuilding area listed by builder
Exterior features
Shed(s)Gravel/stone frontPrivate maintained road

Interior

Kitchen
RefrigeratorDishwasher
Bedrooms
Up to 3 bedrooms
Flooring
CarpetVinyl
Bathrooms
2 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling
Electric heatingCentral air conditioning
Interior features
Eat-in kitchenFull bath in primary bedroom
Laundry & utility
Washer/dryer hookup only

Listing history 39 events

  1. 2026-07-18
    days on market $72,990 Active 63 DOM
  2. 2026-07-18
    days on market $72,990 Active 62 DOM
  3. 2026-07-16
    days on market $72,990 Active 61 DOM
  4. 2026-07-15
    days on market $72,990 Active 60 DOM
  5. 2026-07-14
    days on market $72,990 Active 59 DOM
  6. 2026-07-13
    days on market $72,990 Active 58 DOM
  7. 2026-07-13
    days on market $72,990 Active 57 DOM
  8. 2026-07-11
    days on market $72,990 Active 56 DOM
  9. 2026-07-10
    days on market $72,990 Active 55 DOM
  10. 2026-07-09
    days on market $72,990 Active 54 DOM
  11. 2026-07-07
    days on market $72,990 Active 52 DOM
  12. 2026-07-06
    days on market $72,990 Active 51 DOM
  13. 2026-07-06
    days on market $72,990 Active 50 DOM
  14. 2026-07-05
    pricedays on market $72,990 Active 49 DOM
  15. 2026-07-03
    days on market $77,990 Active 48 DOM
  16. 2026-07-02
    days on market $77,990 Active 47 DOM
  17. 2026-07-01
    days on market $77,990 Active 46 DOM
  18. 2026-06-30
    days on market $77,990 Active 45 DOM
  19. 2026-06-29
    days on market $77,990 Active 44 DOM
  20. 2026-06-28
    days on market $77,990 Active 43 DOM
  21. 2026-06-27
    days on market $77,990 Active 42 DOM
  22. 2026-06-26
    days on market $77,990 Active 41 DOM
  23. 2026-06-24
    days on market $77,990 Active 39 DOM
  24. 2026-06-22
    days on market $77,990 Active 37 DOM
  25. 2026-06-21
    days on market $77,990 Active 36 DOM
  26. 2026-06-18
    days on market $77,990 Active 33 DOM
  27. 2026-06-17
    days on market $77,990 Active 32 DOM
  28. 2026-06-16
    days on market $77,990 Active 31 DOM
  29. 2026-06-15
    days on market $77,990 Active 30 DOM
  30. 2026-06-13
    days on market $77,990 Active 28 DOM
  31. 2026-06-09
    days on market $77,990 Active 24 DOM
  32. 2026-06-08
    days on market $77,990 Active 23 DOM
  33. 2026-06-07
    days on market $77,990 Active 22 DOM
  34. 2026-06-04
    days on market $77,990 Active 19 DOM
  35. 2026-06-03
    days on market $77,990 Active 18 DOM
  36. 2026-06-02
    days on market $77,990 Active 17 DOM
  37. 2026-06-01
    days on market $77,990 Active 16 DOM
  38. 2026-05-31
    days on market $77,990 Active 15 DOM
  39. 2026-05-16
    listed $77,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

  • 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
  • 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
  • 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
  • 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
  • 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

Loading sold comps map…

Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

Loading nearby amenities…

Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$17,113
− Mortgage interest
−$4,089
− Property taxes
−$1,095
− Insurance
−$365
− Repairs & maintenance
−$1,369
− Management
−$1,369
− Depreciation
−$2,123
Taxable income
$6,703
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
−$1,609
After-tax cash flow
$5,857/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 30 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $5,515–$16,545 screening

This well-maintained mobile home in a desirable community offers a good return on investment with minor cosmetic updates.

Value-add opportunities

  • Resale paint exterior — enhances curb appeal
  • Both install new flooring — improves aesthetics and value
  • Both install new windows — increases energy efficiency and value

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 30/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Surprise Elementary School F AZ #502/1,109 Nat'l #24,773/41,679 High Valley Vista High School F AZ #133/381 Nat'l #11,681/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District
Dysart Unified District (4243)
NCES district ID
0402690
Math proficiency
34% ▼ -10.00%
Reading proficiency
40% ▼ -5.00%
Median HH income
$58,033
Composite
32.76/100
National rank
#5634
State rank
#73 of 249 in AZ
C Composite livability gradescore 63/100

Livability — El Mirage

Score
63/100
State rank
#112
US rank
#15164

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place
El Mirage, AZ
County
Maricopa County · 4,979,203 people
City population
36,088
Metro
Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
Population (ZIP)
36,088
Household income
$78,050
Rent vs Own
30.3% rent · 69.7% own
Severe rent burden
7% of renters

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
4,979,203 people
By 2030
5,378,229 · +8.0%
By 2040
6,156,598 · +23.6%
By 2050
6,872,376 · +38.0%
By 2075
8,401,270 · +68.7%
By 2100
9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
Race & ethnicity
Hispanic / Latino 50% White 35% Two or more races 28% Black 6% Native American 1% Pacific Islander 1%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 37%
Common ancestry
Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
Foreign-born
15% · Canada
Languages at home
66% English-only · Spanish 30% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

2024 margin
Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
2008→2024 swing
+7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
All cycles
2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

Civics

Price history

1 event — show timeline
  • 2026-05-16 Listed $77,990 ARMLS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…