12721 W Greenway Rd #207 · El Mirage, AZ 85335

$77,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,103 sqft · Manufactured · 33 Days on market

Built 2015 Good condition Est $77k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.0/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home located in the desirable Rosewood Estates community! This well-maintained home features two convenient storage sheds and is nestled in a beautiful neighborhood offering exclusive access to a private park and refreshing community pool. Enjoy comfortable living in a peaceful community with great amenities perfect for relaxing and spending time with family and friends.

Key facts

• 7 parking spots
• Community pool
• Built 2015

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fees; Land lease ($890.25 monthly); Community pool; Community spa (heated); Playground

Exterior

• Parking: 3 open parking spaces; 4 covered parking spaces; 4 carport spaces
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Leasehold ownership
• Construction: Metal siding; Wood frame construction; Metal roof; Building area listed by builder
• Exterior features: Shed(s); Gravel/stone front; Private maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Up to 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Full bath in primary bedroom
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookup only

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $78k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $903 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $78k).
• Recommended offer: $76k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.2% vs local median 4.5% in El Mirage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#112 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Surprise Elementary School (math 27% / reading 38%, grade F, #502 of 1,109 statewide, top 45%, 771 students, 72% FRL); Valley Vista High School (math 25% / reading 32%, grade F, #133 of 381 statewide, top 35%, 2,464 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 41% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 132 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $540 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.1% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($76k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $75,650 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 49.63%
• DSCR: 3.21
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $77,210
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12721 W Greenway Rd #184	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,140 (+3%)	2mo	$48,000	$42	93
12721 W Greenway Way #200	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,140 (+3%)	3mo	$73,000	$64	86
12721 W Greenway Rd #24	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,088 (-1%)	15mo	$85,000	$78	80
15780 N Sunny Ln	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,120 (+2%)	2mo	$197,000	$176	76
12721 W Greenway Rd #80	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+10%)	8mo	$83,990	$69	71
12721 W Greenway Rd #175	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,140 (+3%)	22mo	$80,000	$70	70
12721 W Greenway Rd #136	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,040 (-6%)	13mo	$98,000	$94	69
12721 W Greenway Rd #6	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+10%)	13mo	$72,000	$59	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 43.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.82×
• Total profit: $39,698
• Equity at exit: $11,629

10-year hold

• IRR: 48.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.06×
• Total profit: $88,575
• Equity at exit: $6,743

Cash invested: $21,837 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85335

• Home prices YoY: -13.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 132
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,825 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$409
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$97 /mo · $1,170/yr
• Insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$383
• Net cashflow: $903

Break-even live

Break-even rent $682

Max offer price $77,990

Occupancy floor 46%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $957	-5% $930	+0% $903	+5% $876	+10% $849
Rent	-10% $759	-5% $831	+0% $903	+5% $975	+10% $1,047
Rate	-1.0pp $942	-0.5pp $923	base $903	+0.5pp $883	+1.0pp $862

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,498
• Closing costs: $2,340
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12945 W Greenway Rd El Mirage, AZ	2.0	2.0	1060	$1,300	$1.23	24d	4	0.22mi
12574 W Lisbon Ln El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1058	$1,700	$1.61	5d	1	0.25mi
15426 N Cactus Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	1.0	1376	$1,634	$1.19	44d	1	0.40mi
12438 W Hearn Rd El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1308	$1,595	$1.22	24d	1	0.44mi
15427 N Jerry St Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.5	920	$1,450	$1.58	5d	1	0.51mi
15620 N El Mirage Rd Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1310	$1,599	$1.22	24d	2	0.60mi
14417 N Gil Balcome Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1446	$1,900	$1.31	5d	1	0.66mi
12741 W Tasha Dr Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.0	750	$1,275	$1.70	24d	1	0.67mi
12817 W Cottonwood St Unit 1 Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.0	725	$1,300	$1.79	5d	1	0.72mi
13314 W Mauna Loa Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1252	$2,355	$1.88	44d	1	0.76mi
16520 N Greasewood St Surprise, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.5	1267	$1,850	$1.46	2d	17	0.82mi
13148 W Redfield Rd Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1372	$1,970	$1.44	4d	1	0.87mi
12731 W Sharon Dr El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,650	$1.27	17d	1	0.95mi
16629 N Greasewood St Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.5	1052	$1,462	$1.39	2d	3	0.98mi
13939 N 132nd Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1297	$3,500	$2.70	44d	1	1.00mi
12430 W Willow Ave El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1183	$5,900	$4.99	5d	1	1.05mi
14005 N Palm St Unit 4 El Mirage, AZ	2.0	1.0	830	$1,200	$1.45	44d	1	1.06mi
13913 N Palm St Unit 12 El Mirage, AZ	2.0	1.0	800	$1,200	$1.50	2d	1	1.08mi
13913 N Palm St Unit 14 El Mirage, AZ	2.0	1.0	830	$1,200	$1.45	44d	1	1.08mi
13338 W Boca Raton Rd Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1412	$2,096	$1.48	24d	1	1.09mi
13342 W Canyon Creek Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1419	$1,750	$1.23	24d	1	1.10mi
14809 N El Frio Cir El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1459	$2,199	$1.51	22d	1	1.11mi
12814 W Pershing St El Mirage, AZ	4.0	3.0	1495	$1,945	$1.30	13d	1	1.20mi
11759 W Banff Ln El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.5	1495	$2,000	$1.34	44d	1	1.25mi
12521 W Myer Ln El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,700	$1.21	44d	1	1.28mi
12022 W Ash St El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1040	$1,800	$1.73	24d	1	1.31mi
11755 W Thompson Ranch Rd El Mirage, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	936	$2,771	$2.96	1d	1	1.37mi
13831 W Fargo Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,600	$1.45	24d	1	1.38mi
13843 W Fargo Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1201	$1,795	$1.49	44d	1	1.40mi
13517 N Luna St El Mirage, AZ	3.0	1.0	1260	$1,530	$1.21	24d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $77,990 Active 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $77,990 Active 32 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $77,990 Active 31 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $77,990 Active 30 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $77,990 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $77,990 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $77,990 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $77,990 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $77,990 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $77,990 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $77,990 Active 17 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $77,990 Active 16 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $77,990 Active 15 DOM
14. 2026-05-16
    listed $77,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,905
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,369
• − Property taxes: −$1,170
• − Insurance: −$390
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,752
• − Management: −$1,752
• − Depreciation: −$2,269
• Taxable income: $10,203
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,449
• After-tax cash flow: $8,389/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 30 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained mobile home in a desirable community offers a good return on investment with minor cosmetic updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint exterior — enhances curb appeal
• Both install new flooring — improves aesthetics and value
• Both install new windows — increases energy efficiency and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale paint exterior — enhances curb appeal ↑
• Both install new flooring — improves aesthetics and value ↑
• Both install new windows — increases energy efficiency and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dysart Unified District (4243)
• NCES district ID: 0402690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,033
• Composite: 32.76/100
• National rank: #5634
• State rank: #73 of 249 in AZ

Livability — El Mirage

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #112
• US rank: #15164

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: El Mirage, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 36,088
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 36,088
• Household income: $78,050
• Rent vs Own: 30.3% rent · 69.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 669.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 35% Two or more races 28% Black 6% Native American 1% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 30% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -52.81%
• Current HPI: 342.6503
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.08%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Listed $77,990 ARMLS