419 Tudor Ct · Saw Creek, PA 18324

$169,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,818 sqft · Condo public records · 73 Days on market

Built 1985 $93/sqft · at area comps Est $175k · at est. $212/mo HOA · 10% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.6/30.0
• ARV discount +9.0/15.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• Appreciation +6.8/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

CONDO AT THE CREEK! ESCAPE TO THE POCONOS AND ENJOY RESORT-STYLE LIVING JUST 90 MINUTES FROM NYC IN THE HEART OF BUSHKILL! Welcome to this charming three-story condo at the Falls at Saw Creek, with views of Marshalls Creek in the backyard and ideally located near some of the area's most sought-after attractions including the breathtaking Bushkill Falls, known as the ''Niagara of Pennsylvania, '' the scenic Delaware Water Gap National Recreation Area with its miles of hiking trails, waterfalls, and overlooks, and the peaceful Delaware River for kayaking, tubing, and relaxing days on the water. This inviting home features a cozy fireplace as its centerpiece, along with 2 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, a formal dining room, an eat-in kitchen, and a spacious loft perfect for additional living or guest space. New roof, wood flooring. Nestled within the amenity-rich, gated community of Saw Creek Estates, residents enjoy a true four-season resort lifestyle with access to an outdoor pool, tennis court, basketball court, a fitness center, walking trails, on-site dining at Top of the World Restaurant, and 24/7 security, all surrounded by the natural beauty of the Poconos and just minutes from charming local spots, scenic drives, and outdoor adventure. Whether you're seeking a full-time residence, weekend retreat, or investment opportunity, this property offers incredible potential in a prime location; please note the crawl space, heat pump, and deck need repair, and buyers should review the seller's disclosure for full details.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Fitness center
• Tennis courts

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• PRIVATE SKI MOUNTAIN
• INDOOR AND OUTDOOR POOLS
• TENNIS COURTS
• FITNESS CENTER
• WALKING TRAILS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $320 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $169k).
• Recommended offer: $159k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 4.3% in Saw Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,538 in PA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D, schools F.
• East Stroudsburg Area SD (rural): math 25% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #413 of 539 in PA (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 290 active listings in the ZIP; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.5% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($159k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $158,860 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.11%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $175,017
• List price: $169,000
• Delta: -3.44%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.51% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.96×
• Total profit: $45,483
• Equity at exit: $80,851

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.71×
• Total profit: $128,148
• Equity at exit: $128,519

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18324

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 290
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,225 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax from tax record: −$269 /mo · $3,232/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$212
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$467
• Net cashflow: $320

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,820

Max offer price $169,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $415	-5% $367	+0% $320	+5% $272	+10% $224
Rent	-10% $144	-5% $232	+0% $320	+5% $407	+10% $495
Rate	-1.0pp $405	-0.5pp $363	base $320	+0.5pp $276	+1.0pp $231

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $212 · $2,544/yr
• Likely covers: waterpoolgymsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-03
   status $169,000 Pending 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $169,000 Active 73 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $169,000 Active 72 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $169,000 Active 71 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $169,000 Active 70 DOM
6. 2026-03-21
   listed $169,000 Active 1538-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1538 chars)

   CONDO AT THE CREEK! ESCAPE TO THE POCONOS AND ENJOY RESORT-STYLE LIVING JUST 90 MINUTES FROM NYC IN THE HEART OF BUSHKILL! Welcome to this charming three-story condo at the Falls at Saw Creek, with views of Marshalls Creek in the backyard and ideally located near some of the area's most sought-after attractions including the breathtaking Bushkill Falls, known as the ''Niagara of Pennsylvania, '' the scenic Delaware Water Gap National Recreation Area with its miles of hiking trails, waterfalls, and overlooks, and the peaceful Delaware River for kayaking, tubing, and relaxing days on the water. This inviting home features a cozy fireplace as its centerpiece, along with 2 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, a formal dining room, an eat-in kitchen, and a spacious loft perfect for additional living or guest space. New roof, wood flooring. Nestled within the amenity-rich, gated community of Saw Creek Estates, residents enjoy a true four-season resort lifestyle with access to an outdoor pool, tennis court, basketball court, a fitness center, walking trails, on-site dining at Top of the World Restaurant, and 24/7 security, all surrounded by the natural beauty of the Poconos and just minutes from charming local spots, scenic drives, and outdoor adventure. Whether you're seeking a full-time residence, weekend retreat, or investment opportunity, this property offers incredible potential in a prime location; please note the crawl space, heat pump, and deck need repair, and buyers should review the seller's disclosure for full details.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,232 · $269/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,232 · $269/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,698
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$3,232
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,136
• − Management: −$2,136
• − HOA: −$2,544
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable income: $1,422
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$341
• After-tax cash flow: $3,494/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Stroudsburg Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4208670
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $57,142
• Composite: 30.13/100
• National rank: #6332
• State rank: #413 of 539 in PA

Livability — Saw Creek

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1538
• US rank: #20241

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Saw Creek, PA
• Population (ZIP): 9,591

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 26% Black 21% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 12% Cuban 3% Dominican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Estonian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 19% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.51%
• Current HPI: 243.6754
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-21 Listed $169,000 PWMLS

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,232 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.