12114 Estelle Ln · Tomball, TX 77362

$260,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,394 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 2012 5,384 sqft lot Est $237k · 10% over $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 57% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.7/30.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• ARV discount +3.1/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Looking for a clean, charming, and affordable home? This property is perfect for a single professional first-time homebuyer, or small family. The spacious floor plan features three bedrooms and two bathrooms, with an open-concept design that seamlessly connects the kitchen, breakfast area, and family room ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Recent updates include new laminate flooring, fresh paint , and numerous improvements throughout the home. The kitchen offers beautiful granite countertops and stainless steal appliances, providing both style and functionality. The newly remodeled primary bathroom features a relaxing garden tub, separate shower, dual sink vanity. With it's comfor

Key facts

• Open-concept design
• Separate shower
• Granite countertops

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GARDEN TUB
• SEPARATE SHOWER
• DUAL SINK VANITY

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community managed by CMI - Community Management; Annual association fee of $500

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Driveway
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story (all main rooms listed on first floor); Slab foundation; Composition roof; Built in 2012
• Construction: Brick and cement siding construction
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Fenced backyard; Subdivision lot setting

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas cooktop; Gas range; Oven; Microwave; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (14 x 12); Bedroom on the first floor (12 x 10); Bedroom on the first floor (10 x 9)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat; 7 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup; Utility room on the first floor (6 x 6)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-125 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $238k (8.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (16.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $217k (16.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 2.7% in Tomball — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#155 in TX, #4,239 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Tomball ISD (suburban): math 66% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #25 of 826 in TX (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Decker Prairie El (math 29% / reading 34%, grade F, #2,396 of 4,322 statewide, top 56%, 755 students, 40% FRL); Tomball Int (math 55% / reading 45%, grade C, #347 of 1,662 statewide, top 21%, 988 students, 46% FRL); Tomball H S (math 74% / reading 69%, grade B+, #111 of 1,632 statewide, top 7%, 2,801 students, 34% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 51% at this address vs 64% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Tomball ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 172 active listings in the ZIP; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $216,998 (16.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.06%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $236,980
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12222 Estelle Ln	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,463 (+5%)	11mo	$250,000	$171	78
12035 Fairquarter Ln	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,414 (+1%)	1mo	$240,000	$170	72
32002 Sue Ln	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,464 (+5%)	6mo	$260,000	$178	72
32211 Decker Oaks Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,556 (+12%)	2mo	$249,300	$160	72
32214 Annice Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,530 (+10%)	6mo	$240,000	$157	71
11843 Belle Ct	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,534 (+10%)	2mo	$249,900	$163	65
11726 Elizabeth Ct	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-13%)	5mo	$223,000	$183	58
32016 S Wiggins St	0.54mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,485 (+6%)	3mo	$275,000	$185	56
28411 Red Fox Ln	0.46mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,310 (-6%)	7mo	$210,000	$160	55
12038 Powderhorn Ln	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,556 (+12%)	5mo	$265,000	$170	52
12050 Quartersawn Ln	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,556 (+12%)	1mo	$269,000	$173	51
12035 Powderhorn Ln	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,556 (+12%)	9mo	$260,000	$167	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-50,043
• Equity at exit: $38,767

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-53,600
• Equity at exit: $22,480

Cash invested: $72,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77362

• Home prices YoY: -29.1%
• Active inventory: 172
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,170 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$326 /mo · $3,908/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$456
• Net cashflow: $-125

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,328

Max offer price $237,893

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $22	-5% $-52	+0% $-125	+5% $-199	+10% $-272
Rent	-10% $-297	-5% $-211	+0% $-125	+5% $-39	+10% $46
Rate	-1.0pp $6	-0.5pp $-59	base $-125	+0.5pp $-193	+1.0pp $-261

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,000
• Closing costs: $7,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $260,000 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $260,000 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $260,000 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $260,000 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $260,000 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $260,000 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $260,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $260,000 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   remarks 699-char remark
10. 2026-06-08
    listed $260,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,908 · $326/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,758 · $396/mo
• Expected delta: +$850/yr (+$71/mo · 21.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,040
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,564
• − Property taxes: −$3,908
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,083
• − Management: −$2,083
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$7,564
• Taxable loss: −$5,966
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,432
• After-tax cash flow: $-70/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tomball ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842960
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $86,552
• Composite: 58.32/100
• National rank: #1014
• State rank: #25 of 826 in TX

Livability — Tomball

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #155
• US rank: #4239

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 113,991
• Population (ZIP): 7,474

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 10% Black 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 4% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.65%
• Current HPI: 284.6412
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-56.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-07 Listed $260,000 HARMLS
• 2011-05-03 Sold (Public Records) $603,562 Public Records

Property tax history

+24.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,908 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.