402 Magnolia Dr · Forney, TX 75126

$120,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,265 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1983 7,754 sqft lot Est $230k · 48% under ↓ 40% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

FIX & FLIP Opportunity in Forney. Great location just off hwy 80. House is being sold as is.

Key facts

• 7,754 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1983

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property listed as For Sale (MLS status: Active); Possession at closing/funding
• Financial info: No second mortgage reported; Loan type treated as clear
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Covered parking for 2 vehicles; On-street parking available; On-site parking
• Security: No smart home features reported; No specific security features provided
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Not attached to other properties; Built in 1983
• Construction: Composition roof; Year built 1983
• Exterior features: Lot less than 0.5 acre; Subdivision: South Lake 3

Interior

• Kitchen: Other appliances
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level; Total of 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: No flooring details provided
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: No heating or cooling details provided
• Interior features: One-level layout; Living area approximately 1265; One living area; One dining area; Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: No specific laundry details provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $555 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 4.1% in Forney — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#98 in TX, #3,339 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Forney ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #234 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Criswell El (math 41% / reading 50%, grade D-, #1,112 of 4,322 statewide, top 26%, 807 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools average 50% FRL vs 26% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 2200 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.4% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.0% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $120,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.73% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.84%
• DSCR: 1.88
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $230,230
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
604 Carl C Senter St	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,314 (+4%)	2mo	$217,500	$166	69
507 Southlake Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,190 (-6%)	3mo	$199,000	$167	68
421 Brazos St	0.52mi	3/1.5	1,236 (-2%)	4mo	$224,500	$182	66
506 Rosewood Ln	0.24mi	3/2.5	1,350 (+7%)	7mo	$259,000	$192	66
911 Bermuda St	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,275 (+1%)	9mo	$257,750	$202	62
524 Appaloosa Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,407 (+11%)	4mo	$240,000	$171	61
316 Bowie St	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,360 (+8%)	8mo	$250,000	$184	60
200 Patriot Pkwy	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,404 (+11%)	9mo	$244,900	$174	57
910 Downing St	0.45mi	3/1.5	1,373 (+8%)	9mo	$238,000	$173	56
422 Southlake Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,120 (-12%)	10mo	$219,000	$196	55
708 Redbud Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,408 (+11%)	6mo	$149,900	$106	55
519 Magnolia Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,452 (+15%)	10mo	$269,900	$186	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.38×
• Total profit: $12,874
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.33×
• Total profit: $44,618
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75126

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 2200
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,076 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$405 /mo · $4,859/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$436
• Net cashflow: $555

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,372

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $623	-5% $589	+0% $555	+5% $522	+10% $488
Rent	-10% $392	-5% $474	+0% $555	+5% $637	+10% $719
Rate	-1.0pp $616	-0.5pp $586	base $555	+0.5pp $524	+1.0pp $493

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 36 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
413 Redbud Dr Unit NA Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1671	$2,200	$1.32	44d	1	0.10mi
416 Forestwood Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1267	$1,799	$1.42	4d	1	0.17mi
404 Woodcrest Way Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1434	$1,900	$1.32	44d	1	0.21mi
603 Woodcrest Way Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1234	$1,805	$1.46	25d	1	0.21mi
416 Woodcrest Way Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1379	$1,950	$1.41	21d	1	0.23mi
105 Independence Trl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1608	$1,900	$1.18	8d	1	0.23mi
110 Meadow Ct Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1840	$1,783	$0.97	0d	1	0.24mi
611 Orchard Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1540	$2,000	$1.30	23d	1	0.24mi
415 Southlake Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1283	$1,723	$1.34	44d	1	0.29mi
415 Southlake Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1283	$1,913	$1.49	7d	1	0.29mi
308 Southlake Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1491	$1,965	$1.32	4d	1	0.32mi
509 Southlake Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1157	$2,299	$1.99	13d	1	0.34mi
616 Carl C Senter St Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1507	$1,950	$1.29	44d	1	0.35mi
213 Independence Trl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1487	$1,900	$1.28	44d	1	0.36mi
920 Royal St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,870	$1.44	5d	1	0.38mi
604 Carl C Senter St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1314	$2,300	$1.75	3d	1	0.38mi
204 Freedom Trl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1596	$1,925	$1.21	3d	1	0.39mi
224 Independence Trl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1562	$2,095	$1.34	0d	1	0.45mi
905 Royal St Forney, TX	3.0	1.5	1250	$1,750	$1.40	44d	1	0.46mi
507 Thunder Trl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1800	$2,300	$1.28	0d	1	0.47mi
113 Galloping Trl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1482	$1,769	$1.19	18d	1	0.49mi
102 Galloping Trl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1663	$1,999	$1.20	8d	1	0.49mi
907 Alpine St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,810	$1.39	44d	1	0.51mi
511 Brazos St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1570	$1,945	$1.24	8d	1	0.54mi
517 Burgett St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,695	$1.32	4d	1	0.93mi
300 Trailhouse Ln Forney, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1041	$2,115	$2.03	0d	37	0.96mi
2201 Woodberry Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1839	$2,050	$1.11	44d	1	1.01mi
236 Pennridge Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1871	$2,295	$1.23	25d	1	1.06mi
201 Wildwood Blvd Forney, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	964	$1,955	$2.03	0d	33	1.10mi
2105 Cardinal Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1763	$2,200	$1.25	23d	1	1.10mi
304 Burgett St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1417	$1,595	$1.13	44d	1	1.15mi
404 Oak St Unit 1 Forney, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,349	$1.35	3d	1	1.19mi
525 Ardsley Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1775	$2,395	$1.35	0d	1	1.26mi
2207 Heaton Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1423	$2,100	$1.48	44d	1	1.32mi
2217 Perrymead Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1423	$2,360	$1.66	5d	1	1.33mi
1412 Grove Pond Rd Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1708	$2,500	$1.46	19d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $120,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   remarks 94-char remark
3. 2026-06-18
   listed $120,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,859 · $405/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,859 · $405/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,907
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$4,859
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,993
• − Management: −$1,993
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $5,250
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,260
• After-tax cash flow: $5,406/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819560
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $86,679
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3812
• State rank: #234 of 826 in TX

Livability — Forney

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #98
• US rank: #3339

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Forney, TX
• County: Kaufman County · 122,338 people
• City population: 84,799
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,799
• Household income: $103,673
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1306.0

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% Arabic 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 148.5749
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-40.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $120,000 NTREIS
• 2023-05-25 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2023-04-24 Listed $200,000 NTREIS
• 2008-07-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,859 · -10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.