4653 Whispering Pnes #449 · Buford, GA 30518

$112,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,052 sqft · SingleFamily · 191 Days on market

Built 1996 ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully renovated manufactured home located in the amenity-rich Countryside Village of Lake Lanier, an all-age gated community in Buford offering resort-style living in a friendly neighborhood setting. This spacious 4-bedroom plus a bonus room, 2-bathroom residence features over 2,000 sq. ft. of living space, fresh paint throughout, upgraded fixtures, and new light fixtures and fans. The oversized covered front porch provides the perfect spot for morning coffee or evening relaxation. Inside, enjoy multiple living spaces including a den/flex area, a separate dining room with a stone fireplace feature, a large kitchen with ample cabinet and counter space, two full bathroom

Key facts

• Community pool
• Built 1996
• Listed 191 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $113k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $113k).
• Recommended offer: $99k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.3% vs local median 3.0% in Buford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#96 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Hall County (rural): math 28% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #81 of 174 in GA (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Friendship Elementary School (math 34% / reading 34%, grade F, #554 of 1,228 statewide, top 46%, 684 students, 56% FRL); C. W. Davis Middle School (math 35% / reading 39%, grade F, #164 of 470 statewide, top 35%, 794 students, 44% FRL); Flowery Branch High (math 17% / reading 47%, grade F, #110 of 424 statewide, top 28%, 1,363 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.0%/yr); 590 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 2,274 units permitted in Hall County in 2024 (620 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $781 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hall County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 191 days — a 12% lower offer ($99k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $99,352 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 191 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.32%
• DSCR: 2.75
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.30×
• Total profit: $40,970
• Equity at exit: $16,834

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.00×
• Total profit: $94,726
• Equity at exit: $9,762

Cash invested: $31,612 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30518

• Home prices YoY: -34.7%
• Rents YoY: -2.0%
• Active inventory: 590
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,299 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$592
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$141 /mo · $1,694/yr
• Insurance: −$47
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$483
• Net cashflow: $1,036

Break-even live

Break-even rent $988

Max offer price $112,900

Occupancy floor 50%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,225
• Closing costs: $3,387
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4802 Lanier Islands Pkwy Buford, GA	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,599	$1.02	44d	1	0.04mi
3325 Ivey Ridge Rd Buford, GA	4.0	2.5	2404	$2,295	$0.95	44d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-03-24
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-02-10
   price $112,900
3. 2026-02-05
   price $117,900
4. 2026-01-07
   price $119,900
5. 2025-10-28
   price $122,000
6. 2025-09-24
   price $125,000
7. 2025-09-14
   listed $130,000 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,584
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,324
• − Property taxes: −$1,694
• − Insurance: −$564
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,207
• − Management: −$2,207
• − Depreciation: −$3,284
• Taxable income: $11,304
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,713
• After-tax cash flow: $9,716/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hall County
• NCES district ID: 1302610
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,708
• Composite: 27.15/100
• National rank: #7029
• State rank: #81 of 174 in GA

Livability — Buford

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #96
• US rank: #7638

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Gwinnett County · 952,346 people
• City population: 117,909
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 57,912
• Household income: $96,936
• Rent vs Own: 24.4% rent · 75.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1302.0

Population outlook (Hall County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 225,275 people
• By 2030: 240,204 · +6.6%
• By 2040: 268,440 · +19.2%
• By 2050: 293,596 · +30.3%
• By 2075: 350,293 · +55.5%
• By 2100: 389,329 · +72.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 16% Black 13% Asian 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 18% Korean 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hall

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.8) · D 27.8% · R 71.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -50.9pp · 2024: -43.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.8 2020: R+43.2 2016: R+50.7 2012: R+56.4 2008: R+50.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -133.45%
• Current HPI: 251.5141
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.98%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-13.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-24 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $112,900 GAMLS
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $117,900 GAMLS
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $119,900 GAMLS
• 2025-10-28 Price Changed $122,000 GAMLS
• 2025-09-24 Price Changed $125,000 GAMLS
• 2025-09-14 Listed $130,000 GAMLS