529 Locust St · Lancaster, PA 17602

$198,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,366 sqft · Townhouse public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1930 1,742 sqft lot Est $247k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Own for less than renting in Lancaster City! This 3 bedroom home is a short walk to schools and the South Market. The work has been done for you with new flooring throughout, newer vinyl windows, new sewer line, and fresh paint. The attic offers and additional room. Convenient first floor laundry. Backyard has a wooden privacy fence for your enjoyment. Make this your next home!

Key facts

• Heat pump
• Updated bathroom
• Quiet area

Tags

• UPDATED ELECTRIC SYSTEM
• HEAT PUMP
• UPDATED PLUMBING SYSTEM
• UPDATED BATHROOM
• QUIET AREA

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Townhouse
• Construction: Built in 2026
• Exterior features: Small lot

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $198k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $112 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (10.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (10.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 4.3% in Lancaster — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#71 in PA, #498 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime C-, employment C-.
• Lancaster SD (urban): math 12% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #500 of 539 in PA (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Carter And Macrae El Sch (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,362 of 1,518 statewide, top 92%, 418 students, 93% FRL); Reynolds Ms (math 6% / reading 31%, grade F, #451 of 512 statewide, top 88%, 527 students, 92% FRL); Mccaskey Campus (math 50% / reading 34%, grade F, #230 of 437 statewide, top 53%, 2,620 students, 88% FRL) — zoned schools average 91% FRL vs 72% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 163 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,093 units permitted in Lancaster County in 2024 (201 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lancaster County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $115k; list at $198k implies a 72% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $177,226 (10.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.42%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $247,246
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
524 Locust St	0.03mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,444 (+6%)	1mo	$213,000	$148	84
235 Howard Ave	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,327 (-3%)	1mo	$259,900	$196	79
448 Fremont St	0.34mi	3/1.0	1,290 (-6%)	1mo	$174,950	$136	74
504 S Prince St	0.27mi	3/1.0	1,250 (-8%)	1mo	$155,000	$124	73
39 W Farnum St	0.23mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,564 (+14%)	1mo	$135,000	$86	59
211 E Chestnut St	0.65mi	3/1.5	1,429 (+5%)	1mo	$330,000	$231	59
614-1/2 Lafayette St	0.63mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,482 (+8%)	0mo	$252,500	$170	49
813 Fremont St	0.71mi	3/1.5	1,234 (-10%)	1mo	$231,000	$187	48
114 N Charlotte St	0.70mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,492 (+9%)	0mo	$345,000	$231	45
542 High St	0.56mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,554 (+14%)	2mo	$182,000	$117	43
529 Poplar St	0.47mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,560 (+14%)	1mo	$283,000	$181	42
347 E Orange St	0.62mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,162 (-15%)	0mo	$210,000	$181	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.2% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-28,133
• Equity at exit: $29,522

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-27,891
• Equity at exit: $17,119

Cash invested: $55,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17602

• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 163
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,772 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,038
• Tax from tax record: −$167 /mo · $2,008/yr
• Insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$372
• Net cashflow: $112

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,631

Max offer price $198,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $224	-5% $168	+0% $112	+5% $56	+10% $0
Rent	-10% $-28	-5% $42	+0% $112	+5% $182	+10% $252
Rate	-1.0pp $212	-0.5pp $162	base $112	+0.5pp $61	+1.0pp $8

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,500
• Closing costs: $5,940
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
549 Howard Ave Lancaster, PA	4.0	1.0	1439	$1,700	$1.18	45d	1	0.07mi
345 1/2 Beaver St Lancaster, PA	4.0	1.0	1382	$2,095	$1.52	45d	1	0.15mi
404 Beaver St Lancaster, PA	3.0	1.0	1025	$1,425	$1.39	25d	1	0.18mi
537 Woodward St Lancaster, PA	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,650	$1.28	25d	1	0.19mi
49 W Farnum St Lancaster, PA	3.0	1.0	1820	$1,650	$0.91	45d	1	0.24mi
214 W Strawberry St Lancaster, PA	3.0	1.0	1175	$1,345	$1.14	23d	1	0.38mi
422 Hillside Ave Lancaster, PA	2.0	1.0	960	$1,245	$1.30	45d	1	0.38mi
708 S Lime St Unit 3 Lancaster, PA	4.0	1.0	1742	$1,850	$1.06	45d	1	0.41mi
225 E King St Unit 2 Lancaster, PA	2.0	2.5	1075	$2,600	$2.42	45d	1	0.41mi
225 E King St Unit 1 Lancaster, PA	2.0	1.0	957	$1,950	$2.04	15d	1	0.41mi
324 New Dorwart St Lancaster, PA	3.0	1.0	1020	$1,495	$1.47	15d	1	0.45mi
513 Poplar St Lancaster, PA	3.0	1.5	1184	$1,695	$1.43	45d	1	0.46mi
609 Saint Joseph St Lancaster, PA	4.0	2.0	1523	$1,695	$1.11	45d	1	0.54mi
118 N Prince St Lancaster, PA	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1274	$4,703	$3.69	15d	48	0.56mi
37 E Filbert St Lancaster, PA	3.0	1.0	1002	$1,750	$1.75	45d	1	0.56mi
202 N Queen St Lancaster, PA	2.0	1.0–2.0	697	$2,718	$3.90	15d	12	0.61mi
850 Highland Ave Lancaster, PA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	23d	1	0.63mi
128 N Mulberry St Unit 1 Lancaster, PA	2.0	2.0	1500	$2,250	$1.50	25d	1	0.65mi
529 Manor St Lancaster, PA	3.0	1.0	1434	$1,635	$1.14	15d	1	0.65mi
231 N Shippen St #224 Lancaster, PA	2.0	2.0	1155	$2,285	$1.98	15d	1	0.70mi
741 Manor St Lancaster, PA	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,695	$1.41	45d	1	0.83mi
40 Fairview Ave Lancaster, PA	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,700	$1.48	15d	1	0.84mi
425 N Prince St Apt 206 Lancaster, PA	2.0	2.0	1138	$1,995	$1.75	45d	1	0.87mi
14 Coral St Lancaster, PA	3.0	1.5	1355	$1,525	$1.13	45d	1	0.87mi
1013 Willow Street Pike Lancaster, PA	2.0	1.0	1144	$1,499	$1.31	15d	1	0.88mi
433 W Walnut St Apt 2 Lancaster, PA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,840	$2.04	25d	1	0.89mi
337 W Lemon St Unit 2 Lancaster, PA	3.0	1.0	1588	$1,895	$1.19	15d	1	0.92mi
678 1/2 Columbia Ave Apt 2 Lancaster, PA	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,495	$1.36	15d	1	0.94mi
1127 Wabank St Lancaster, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0	760	$1,650	$2.17	25d	1	0.99mi
738 E Madison St Lancaster, PA	3.0	1.0	1102	$1,750	$1.59	45d	1	1.04mi
480 Euclid Ave Lancaster, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	830	$1,695	$2.04	45d	1	1.08mi
611 S West End Ave Lancaster, PA	4.0	1.5	1589	$1,800	$1.13	15d	1	1.13mi
520 W Frederick St Lancaster, PA	4.0	1.0	1713	$1,895	$1.11	45d	1	1.17mi
816 N Prince St Lancaster, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	794	$2,195	$2.76	15d	7	1.24mi
204 Elmshire Dr Lancaster, PA	3.0	2.5	1364	$1,595	$1.17	46d	1	1.28mi
135 E Ross St Unit 2nd Floor Lancaster, PA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,575	$1.57	15d	1	1.28mi
631 E Frederick St Lancaster, PA	3.0	1.0	1830	$1,850	$1.01	45d	1	1.29mi
836 N Plum St Lancaster, PA	3.0	2.0	1602	$2,150	$1.34	15d	1	1.31mi
1330 Wabank Rd Lancaster, PA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1423	$2,062	$1.45	15d	21	1.32mi
860 N Market St Lancaster, PA	3.0	2.0	1514	$1,850	$1.22	45d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $198,000 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   price $198,000 Active 1 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   remarks 267-char remark
4. 2026-06-17
   listed $204,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,008 · $167/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,568 · $214/mo
• Expected delta: +$560/yr (+$47/mo · 27.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 16% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,267
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,091
• − Property taxes: −$2,008
• − Insurance: −$990
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,701
• − Management: −$1,701
• − Depreciation: −$5,760
• Taxable loss: −$1,985
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$476
• After-tax cash flow: $1,819/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lancaster SD
• NCES district ID: 4213140
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $38,500
• Composite: 15.52/100
• National rank: #9301
• State rank: #500 of 539 in PA

Livability — Lancaster

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #71
• US rank: #498

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lancaster, PA
• County: Lancaster County · 390,309 people
• City population: 176,170
• Metro: Lancaster, PA
• Population (ZIP): 52,217
• Household income: $75,862
• Rent vs Own: 41.7% rent · 58.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1556.0

Population outlook (Lancaster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 561,011 people
• By 2030: 570,969 · +1.8%
• By 2040: 585,929 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 591,056 · +5.4%
• By 2075: 594,747 · +6.0%
• By 2100: 558,850 · -0.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 12% Black 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 21% Cuban 1% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 22% German/W. Germanic 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lancaster

• 2024 margin: R (+15.9) · D 41.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.1pp toward R · 2008: -11.8pp · 2024: -15.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+15.9 2020: R+15.8 2016: R+19.7 2012: R+19.2 2008: R+11.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -248.05%
• Current HPI: 288.9141
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.20%
• Metro: Lancaster, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+204.5% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $204,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2023-03-13 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records
• 2023-02-17 Sold (MLS) $115,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-12-11 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-11-30 Listed $110,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-09-15 Sold (MLS) $28,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-08-21 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-06-03 Listed $26,520 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-02-25 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-02-03 Listed $26,520 BRIGHT MLS
• 2008-03-26 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2007-11-01 Listed $67,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,008 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.