LEXINGTON Plan · La Marque, TX 77568

$275,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,785 sqft · SingleFamily · 554 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The open-concept design of the two-story Lexington floor plan shows the huge island kitchen connected to the great room and dining room. The open-feel of the home is popular with today's sophisticated buyer, who is looking for a design that fosters togetherness in the home and makes entertaining fun. The use of space in the Lexington is well thought out, with the primary suite privately situated on the first floor, while the secondary bedrooms are on the second floor.

Key facts

• Island kitchen
• Primary suite
• Covered patio

Tags

• ISLAND KITCHEN
• GREAT ROOM
• DINING ROOM
• PRIMARY SUITE
• COVERED PATIO

🏗️ New construction. The $275,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $296,715.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $276k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-264 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $258k (6.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (18.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $226k (18.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,136 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Hitchcock ISD (suburban): math 28% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #628 of 826 in TX (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hitchcock Pri (453 students, 85% FRL); Crosby Middle (math 25% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,103 of 1,662 statewide, top 67%, 410 students, 84% FRL); Hitchcock H S (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 470 students, 77% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 983 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 38d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 554 days — a 12% lower offer ($243k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $226,115 (18.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 554 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.82%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $296,715
• List price: $275,990
• Delta: -6.98%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
637 Cherry Tree Dr	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,684 (-6%)	0mo	$292,900	$174	86
626 Cherry Tree Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,932 (+8%)	1mo	$299,900	$155	77
761 Apple Blossom Dr	0.06mi	4/2.5	2,003 (+12%)	1mo	$304,900	$152	76
1349 Blue Moon Ln	0.53mi	4/2.0	1,732 (-3%)	0mo	$283,990	$164	68
1209 Sacred Light Ln	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,615 (-10%)	0mo	$259,990	$161	54
1045 Garnet Star Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,674 (-6%)	1mo	$271,990	$162	54
1345 Blue Moon Ln	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,627 (-9%)	1mo	$278,990	$171	52
1070 Garnet Star Dr	0.57mi	4/2.0	1,990 (+12%)	1mo	$295,990	$149	52
1122 Radiant Ave	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,574 (-12%)	0mo	$283,990	$180	51
1094 Garnet Star Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,574 (-12%)	0mo	$260,990	$166	49
1313 Blue Moon Ln	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,548 (-13%)	0mo	$262,990	$170	44
26563 Eternal Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,574 (-12%)	0mo	$270,000	$172	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-62,693
• Equity at exit: $44,241

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-66,995
• Equity at exit: $25,654

Cash invested: $83,080 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 126 active · 69 under contract
• Months of supply: 12.4 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $273,490 ($153/sqft)
• Median days on market: 111 d
• This list price: 56% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +8.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77568

• Home prices YoY: -22.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 983
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,261 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,556
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$371 /mo · $4,451/yr
• Insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$475
• Net cashflow: $-264

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,596

Max offer price $258,482

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-59	-5% $-162	+0% $-264	+5% $-367	+10% $-469
Rent	-10% $-443	-5% $-354	+0% $-264	+5% $-175	+10% $-86
Rate	-1.0pp $-115	-0.5pp $-189	base $-264	+0.5pp $-341	+1.0pp $-419

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,179
• Closing costs: $8,901
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
501 Maple Bend Ln La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	1947	$1,966	$1.01	63d	1	0.58mi
453 Maple Bend Ln La Marque, TX	3.0	2.0	1860	$2,071	$1.11	161d	1	0.60mi
445 Maple Bend Ln La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2119	$1,990	$0.94	0d	1	0.62mi
4961 Perennial Ln La Marque, TX	4.0	2.0	1951	$2,100	$1.08	37d	1	0.66mi
707 Willow Harbor Ln La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2289	$2,231	$0.97	65d	1	0.70mi
8208 Ash Rd Texas City, TX	4.0	2.0	1701	$1,795	$1.06	184d	1	1.43mi
6203 Red Oak Dr Hitchcock, TX	4.0	2.0	1440	$1,601	$1.11	0d	1	1.43mi
6210 White Oak Dr Hitchcock, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,472	$1.05	2d	1	1.45mi
6215 White Oak Dr Hitchcock, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,472	$1.05	3d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $275,990 Active 554 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $275,990 Active 553 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $275,990 Active 552 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $275,990 Active 551 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $275,990 Active 550 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $275,990 Active 548 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $275,990 Active 547 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $275,990 Active 546 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $275,990 Active 545 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $275,990 Active 544 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $275,990 Active 543 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $275,990 Active 542 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $275,990 Active 541 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $275,990 Active 540 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $275,990 Active 539 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $275,990 Active 538 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $275,990 Active 537 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $275,990 Active 536 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $275,990 Active 535 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $275,990 Active 534 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $275,990 Active 533 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $275,990 Active 532 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $275,990 Active 531 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $275,990 Active 530 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $275,990 Active 529 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $275,990 Active 528 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $275,990 Active 527 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $275,990 Active 526 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $275,990 Active 525 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $275,990 Active 524 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $275,990 Active 523 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $275,990 Active 522 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $275,990 Active 521 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $275,990 Active 520 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $275,990 Active 519 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $275,990 Active 518 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $275,990 Active 517 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $275,990 Active 516 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $275,990 Active 515 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $275,990 Active 514 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $275,990 Active 513 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $275,990 Active 512 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $275,990 Active 511 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $275,990 Active 510 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $275,990 Active 509 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $275,990 Active 508 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $275,990 Active 507 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $275,990 Active 506 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $275,990 Active 505 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $275,990 Active 504 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,134
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,621
• − Property taxes: −$4,451
• − Insurance: −$1,484
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,171
• − Management: −$2,171
• − Depreciation: −$8,632
• Taxable loss: −$8,394
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,015
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,156/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This two-story Lexington home is in good condition with a modern design and well-maintained exterior. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for minor updates to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both HVAC maintenance — A clean and efficient HVAC system improves comfort and energy efficiency. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 38/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Hitchcock Pri Middle Crosby Middle F TX #1,103/1,662 Nat'l #9,290/14,009 High Hitchcock H S D- TX #591/1,632 Nat'l #6,330/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hitchcock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823310
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,041
• Composite: 25.5/100
• National rank: #7439
• State rank: #628 of 826 in TX

D Composite livability gradescore 59/100

Livability — La Marque

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1136
• US rank: #20037

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: La Marque, TX
• County: Galveston County · 390,640 people
• City population: 23,083
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,083
• Household income: $74,694
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

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Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 37% Hispanic / Latino 29% Black 26% Two or more races 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22% Puerto Rican 1%
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 21% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.39%
• Current HPI: 236.0239
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-05-03 Listed $270,990 Zillow