1319 4th St · Las Vegas, NM 87701

$79,999

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,334 sqft · Other public records · 72 Days on market

10,454 sqft lot $34/sqft · 77% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• Garage
• Listed 71 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $599 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#22 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, amenities A; Watch: schools D-, crime F, commute F.
• Las Vegas City Public Schools (town): math 17% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #52 of 95 in NM (top 55%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 89 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Miguel County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $75,199 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.84% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.10%
• DSCR: 2.43
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $351,177
• List price: $79,999
• Delta: -77.22%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.13×
• Total profit: $25,229
• Equity at exit: $11,928

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.18×
• Total profit: $71,230
• Equity at exit: $6,917

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 87701

• Active inventory: 89
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,473 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax from tax record: −$112 /mo · $1,342/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$309
• Net cashflow: $599

Break-even live

Break-even rent $715

Max offer price $79,999

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,999 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,999 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,999 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,999 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,999 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $79,999 Active 66 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,999 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,999 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $79,999 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $79,999 Active 60 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $79,999 Active 57 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,999 Active 56 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,999 Active 55 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,999 Active 54 DOM
15. 2026-05-07
    price $79,999
16. 2026-04-07
    listed $85,000 Active
17. 2017-04-06
    listed $60,600
18. 1980-12-09
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,342 · $112/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,342 · $112/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,679
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$1,342
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,414
• − Management: −$1,414
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $6,300
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,512
• After-tax cash flow: $5,678/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Las Vegas City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3501530
• Math proficiency: 17% —
• Reading proficiency: 31% —
• Median HH income: $32,148
• Composite: 22.58/100
• National rank: #13441
• State rank: #52 of 95 in NM

Livability — Las Vegas

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #22
• US rank: #8084

Category grades

Amenities A Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Las Vegas, NM
• Population (ZIP): 17,864

Population outlook (San Miguel County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 25,750 people
• By 2030: 24,399 · -5.2%
• By 2040: 21,705 · -15.7%
• By 2050: 19,188 · -25.5%
• By 2075: 15,030 · -41.6%
• By 2100: 12,418 · -51.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 77% Two or more races 28% White 16% Native American 3% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 42%

Political lean MEDSL · San Miguel

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+27.9) · D 62.9% · R 35.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.7pp toward R · 2008: 60.6pp · 2024: 27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+27.9 2020: D+38.7 2016: D+46.4 2012: D+56.8 2008: D+60.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -94.60%
• Current HPI: 166.7301
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+32.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $79,999 NMMLS
• 2026-04-07 Listed $85,000 NMMLS
• 2017-04-06 Listed $60,600 Southwest MLS
• 1980-12-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,342 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.