5270 Mallard Rd · Middleburg, FL 32068

$255,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · Manufactured public records · 52 Days on market

Built 1992 1.25 ac lot Est $248k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• ARV discount +6.2/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great country retreat on over 1 acre! This 3-bedroom, 2 bath home with a newer roof and A/C offers an open floor plan with a cozy fireplace , eat in kitchen and split bedroom layout for added privacy. Enjoy the covered front porch and a large 50x12 screened in back porch, perfect for hanging out with the family entertaining, around the pool table or simply relaxing. A great value at this price which includes a 30x36 workshop with electricity and large doors, ideal for vehicles, boat storage, or hobbies. Additional 10x20 outbuilding and spacious pump house provides tons of extra storage. This property has plenty of space, functionality, and country charm.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Outbuilding
• Newer roof

Tags

• NEWER ROOF
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• SCREENED IN BACK PORCH
• WORKSHOP WITH ELECTRICITY
• OUTBUILDING
• SPACIOUS PUMP HOUSE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total acreage approximately 1.25 acres
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; 30 x 36 garage space; Boat parking; RV access/parking; Oversized parking; Off-street parking
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity connected; One well; One septic
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); One story (two levels); Faces east; Homestead property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as double wide manufactured home
• Exterior features: Storage; Workshop; Chain link fencing; Cleared lot; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump; Central air
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Living room / dining room combo; Vaulted ceilings; Decorative living room fireplace; Aluminum window frames; Storage rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $24 ($292/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (23.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $196k (23.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.8% in Middleburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#657 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Clay Hill Elementary School (math 57% / reading 47%, grade C-, #990 of 2,144 statewide, top 48%, 442 students, 100% FRL); Wilkinson Junior High School (math 54% / reading 49%, grade C, #232 of 571 statewide, top 41%, 752 students, 100% FRL); Middleburg High School (math 41% / reading 52%, grade D-, #216 of 667 statewide, top 33%, 1,852 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 35% district-wide (47 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 610 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($247k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $255k implies a 1175% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $196,173 (23.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.41%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $247,860
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5525 Squaw Ln	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,612 (-0%)	15mo	$266,000	$165	66
5394 Muscovy Rd	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,792 (+11%)	2mo	$450,000	$251	65
2009 Catherine Ln	0.55mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,560 (-4%)	3mo	$80,000	$51	59
5192 Mallard Rd	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-13%)	8mo	$215,000	$153	57
5571 Drake Loop Rd	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,758 (+8%)	21mo	$255,000	$145	44
2018 Catherine Ln	0.60mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (-4%)	21mo	$229,500	$147	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-39,193
• Equity at exit: $38,021

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-29,738
• Equity at exit: $22,048

Cash invested: $71,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32068

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 610
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,962 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax from tax record: −$82 /mo · $983/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$412
• Net cashflow: $24

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,931

Max offer price $255,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $169	-5% $97	+0% $24	+5% $-48	+10% $-120
Rent	-10% $-131	-5% $-53	+0% $24	+5% $102	+10% $179
Rate	-1.0pp $153	-0.5pp $89	base $24	+0.5pp $-42	+1.0pp $-109

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,750
• Closing costs: $7,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $255,000 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $255,000 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $255,000 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $255,000 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $255,000 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $255,000 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $255,000 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $255,000 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on market $255,000 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $279,900 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $279,900 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $279,900 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,900 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,900 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-04-30
    listed $279,900 Active
16. 1995-05-19
    soldstatus $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $983 · $82/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,116 · $176/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,133/yr (+$94/mo · 115.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,541
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,284
• − Property taxes: −$983
• − Insurance: −$1,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,883
• − Management: −$1,883
• − Depreciation: −$7,418
• Taxable loss: −$4,186
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,005
• After-tax cash flow: $1,297/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay
• NCES district ID: 1200300
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,379
• Composite: 50.73/100
• National rank: #1815
• State rank: #14 of 73 in FL

Livability — Middleburg

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #657
• US rank: #13174

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Clay County · 208,450 people
• City population: 58,983
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 58,983
• Household income: $84,431
• Rent vs Own: 20.7% rent · 79.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 975.0

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,495 people
• By 2030: 242,427 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 262,244 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 275,148 · +19.4%
• By 2075: 295,397 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 287,592 · +24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Arabic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -115.99%
• Current HPI: 305.2531
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.35%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1299.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Listed $279,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1995-05-19 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $983 · -3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.