1227 Alfalfa · Twentynine Palms, CA 92277

$215,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,352 sqft · Manufactured public records · 133 Days on market

Built 2006 4.79 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 1227 Alfalfa Ave in Twentynine Palms, a spacious desert property offering privacy, functionality, and expansive land. Situated on an approximately 4.79-acre lot, this property provides rare space and flexibility for a variety of uses while maintaining convenient access to town amenities. The home features approximately 1,352 square feet of living space with 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, offering a practical layout suitable for full-time living, a second home, or rental potential. The interior includes an open living area with natural light, a functional kitchen with ample cabinetry and counter space, and a comfortable dining area. The primary bedroom includes an en-suite bathroom, while the additional bedrooms are well-sized and versatile for guests, home office use, or family living. Outside, the expansive lot is the standout feature. With wide-open desert surroundings and unobstructed views, the property offers endless possibilities for outdoor living, storage, recreation, or future improvements. There is ample space for RV parking, workshops, animals, or simply enjoying the peaceful desert environment. The setting delivers stunning desert sunsets, star-filled night skies, and a true sense of privacy. Located near local shopping, dining, schools, and within close proximity to Joshua Tree National Park, this property combines space, opportunity, and location. Whether you’re seeking a primary residence with room to grow, a desert getaway, or an investment opportunity, 1227 Alfalfa Ave offers the freedom and lifestyle that High Desert living is known for.

Key facts

• Functional kitchen
• Ample cabinetry
• 4.79-acre lot

Tags

• 4.79-ACRE LOT
• OPEN LIVING AREA
• FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN
• AMPLE CABINETRY
• COMFORTABLE DINING AREA
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $152 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (8.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $189k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 4.1% in Twentynine Palms — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#622 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, employment D-.
• Morongo Unified (town): math 15% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #395 of 517 in CA (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 734 active listings in the ZIP; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 133 days — a 12% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 133 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.02%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-22,306
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $5,172
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92277

• Home prices YoY: -3.1%
• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 734
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,960 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$180 /mo · $2,159/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$412
• Net cashflow: $152

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,768

Max offer price $215,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $273	-5% $212	+0% $152	+5% $91	+10% $30
Rent	-10% $-3	-5% $74	+0% $152	+5% $229	+10% $306
Rate	-1.0pp $260	-0.5pp $206	base $152	+0.5pp $96	+1.0pp $39

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $215,000 Active 133 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $215,000 Active 132 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $215,000 Active 131 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $215,000 Active 130 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $215,000 Active 128 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $215,000 Active 127 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $215,000 Active 124 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $215,000 Active 123 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $215,000 Active 122 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $215,000 Active 119 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $215,000 Active 118 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $215,000 Active 117 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $215,000 Active 116 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $215,000 Active 115 DOM
15. 2026-02-05
    listed $215,000 Active 1595-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1595 chars)

    Welcome to 1227 Alfalfa Ave in Twentynine Palms, a spacious desert property offering privacy, functionality, and expansive land. Situated on an approximately 4.79-acre lot, this property provides rare space and flexibility for a variety of uses while maintaining convenient access to town amenities. The home features approximately 1,352 square feet of living space with 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, offering a practical layout suitable for full-time living, a second home, or rental potential. The interior includes an open living area with natural light, a functional kitchen with ample cabinetry and counter space, and a comfortable dining area. The primary bedroom includes an en-suite bathroom, while the additional bedrooms are well-sized and versatile for guests, home office use, or family living. Outside, the expansive lot is the standout feature. With wide-open desert surroundings and unobstructed views, the property offers endless possibilities for outdoor living, storage, recreation, or future improvements. There is ample space for RV parking, workshops, animals, or simply enjoying the peaceful desert environment. The setting delivers stunning desert sunsets, star-filled night skies, and a true sense of privacy. Located near local shopping, dining, schools, and within close proximity to Joshua Tree National Park, this property combines space, opportunity, and location. Whether you’re seeking a primary residence with room to grow, a desert getaway, or an investment opportunity, 1227 Alfalfa Ave offers the freedom and lifestyle that High Desert living is known for.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,159 · $180/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,159 · $180/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,523
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$2,159
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,882
• − Management: −$1,882
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$1,772
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$425
• After-tax cash flow: $2,245/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Morongo Unified
• NCES district ID: 0625860
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $39,399
• Composite: 22.19/100
• National rank: #8156
• State rank: #395 of 517 in CA

Livability — Twentynine Palms

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #622
• US rank: #19731

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living C Crime C Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 26,277
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 26,277
• Household income: $60,901
• Rent vs Own: 56.7% rent · 43.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1057.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Two or more races 24% Hispanic / Latino 24% Black 9% Asian 4% Pacific Islander 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.15%
• Current HPI: 380.5083
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.45%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-05 Listed $215,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,159 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.