19242 Relay Rd · Atascocita, TX 77346

$199,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,866 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1984 7,801 sqft lot Est $256k · 22% under $33/mo HOA · 1% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step inside to a tiled entry with formal dining on the right. A spacious den w/ beamed ceiling & brick fireplace is just the place to relax & unwind after a busy day. The kitchen is functional and the family chef will be pleased to see a ceiling fan to keep things cool. The Master BR offers plenty of space & the Master bath has a whirlpool tub. A side-load 2 car garage provides extra driveway space in this lovely home located in the private golf course community of Walden on Lake Houston.

Key facts

• 7,801 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $258 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $197k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 4.1% in Atascocita — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#346 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Maplebrook El (math 19% / reading 30%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 592 students, 52% FRL); Atascocita Middle (math 35% / reading 40%, grade F, #736 of 1,662 statewide, top 45%, 1,027 students, 50% FRL); Atascocita H S (math 41% / reading 52%, grade D-, #621 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 3,829 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools average 48% FRL vs 32% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 669 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $196,901 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
4. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
5. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.52%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $255,642
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19242 Relay Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,866 (0%)	1mo	$199,900	$107	99
8507 Discus Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,928 (+3%)	0mo	$274,900	$143	86
19214 Hikers Trail Dr	0.18mi	3/2.5	1,849 (-1%)	3mo	$159,000	$86	86
19110 Baton Pass	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,770 (-5%)	3mo	$315,000	$178	84
8542 Lighthouse Lake Ln	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,889 (+1%)	2mo	$299,900	$159	81
19311 Arbor Pines Ln	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,713 (-8%)	2mo	$190,000	$111	80
19319 Pine Cluster Ln	0.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,993 (+7%)	1mo	$279,900	$140	78
19523 Gamble Oak Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,898 (+2%)	2mo	$269,000	$142	75
19507 Gamble Oak Dr	0.40mi	3/2.5	1,990 (+7%)	1mo	$234,900	$118	68
8610 Timber View Dr	0.35mi	3/2.5	1,724 (-8%)	2mo	$209,900	$122	67
8427 Pines Place Dr	0.45mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,830 (-2%)	3mo	$249,900	$137	67
18834 Racquet Ridge Rd	0.51mi	3/2.0	2,016 (+8%)	3mo	$274,900	$136	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.95% appreciation · 0.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-4,520
• Equity at exit: $48,694

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $9,590
• Equity at exit: $51,508

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77346

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 669
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,250 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$356 /mo · $4,268/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$473
• Net cashflow: $258

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,924

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19119 Sprintwood Ct Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2487	$2,425	$0.98	22d	1	0.06mi
18718 Walden Forest Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.0	2224	$2,600	$1.17	1d	1	0.60mi
7403 Misty Morning Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1628	$1,900	$1.17	17d	1	1.06mi
7515 Echo Pines Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1655	$1,850	$1.12	43d	1	1.08mi
7131 Maple Walk Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1808	$1,895	$1.05	5d	1	1.30mi
20502 Spoonwood Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	2302	$1,975	$0.86	43d	1	1.41mi
14100 Will Clayton Pkwy Humble, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1040	$1,910	$1.84	12d	1	1.42mi
7315 Wisteria Chase Pl Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1232	$1,232	$1.00	19d	1	1.48mi
14100 Will Clayton Pkwy Unit 3165 Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1393	$1,867	$1.34	2d	1	1.49mi
14100 Will Clayton Pkwy Unit 3174 Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1393	$1,910	$1.37	10d	1	1.49mi
14100 Will Clayton Pkwy Unit 14133 Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1393	$1,910	$1.37	43d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-04
   status Active
3. 2026-03-24
   status Pending
4. 2026-03-18
   listed $199,900 Active
5. 2013-05-06
   soldstatus
6. 2013-05-02
   status Pending, Continue to Show 511-char remark

   Show marketing remark (511 chars)

   Step inside to a tiled entry with formal dining on the right. A spacious den w/ beamed ceiling & brick fireplace is just the place to relax & unwind after a busy day. The kitchen is functional and the family chef will be pleased to see a ceiling fan to keep things cool. The Master BR offers plenty of space & the Master bath has a whirlpool tub. A side-load 2 car garage provides extra driveway space in this lovely home located in the private golf course community of Walden on Lake Houston.

7. 2013-04-30
   soldstatus Sold 511-char remark

   Show marketing remark (511 chars)

   Step inside to a tiled entry with formal dining on the right. A spacious den w/ beamed ceiling & brick fireplace is just the place to relax & unwind after a busy day. The kitchen is functional and the family chef will be pleased to see a ceiling fan to keep things cool. The Master BR offers plenty of space & the Master bath has a whirlpool tub. A side-load 2 car garage provides extra driveway space in this lovely home located in the private golf course community of Walden on Lake Houston.

8. 2013-04-17
   status Option Pending 511-char remark

   Show marketing remark (511 chars)

   Step inside to a tiled entry with formal dining on the right. A spacious den w/ beamed ceiling & brick fireplace is just the place to relax & unwind after a busy day. The kitchen is functional and the family chef will be pleased to see a ceiling fan to keep things cool. The Master BR offers plenty of space & the Master bath has a whirlpool tub. A side-load 2 car garage provides extra driveway space in this lovely home located in the private golf course community of Walden on Lake Houston.

9. 2012-08-03
   listed $124,900 Active 511-char remark

   Show marketing remark (511 chars)

   Step inside to a tiled entry with formal dining on the right. A spacious den w/ beamed ceiling & brick fireplace is just the place to relax & unwind after a busy day. The kitchen is functional and the family chef will be pleased to see a ceiling fan to keep things cool. The Master BR offers plenty of space & the Master bath has a whirlpool tub. A side-load 2 car garage provides extra driveway space in this lovely home located in the private golf course community of Walden on Lake Houston.

10. 1999-04-28
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,268 · $356/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,268 · $356/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,004
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$4,268
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,160
• − Management: −$2,160
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable income: $7
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2
• After-tax cash flow: $3,088/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humble ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823910
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,946
• Composite: 38.55/100
• National rank: #4171
• State rank: #262 of 826 in TX

Livability — Atascocita

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #7586

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Atascocita, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 79,538
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 79,538
• Household income: $122,241
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1072.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 21% Two or more races 18% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Current HPI: 218.0478
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+60.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-04 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-03-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-18 Listed $199,900 HARMLS
• 2013-05-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-05-02 Pending — HARMLS
• 2013-04-30 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2013-04-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2012-08-03 Listed $124,900 HARMLS
• 1999-04-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,268 · -4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.