2312 Gano St · Houston, TX 77009

$200,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,380 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 313 Days on market

Built 1930 5,000 sqft lot $145/sqft · 45% below area Est $364k · 45% under ↓ 28% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 5,000 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1930

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $223 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 604 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 313 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 313 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.78%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $364,227
• List price: $200,000
• Delta: -45.09%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2710 Gano St	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,265 (-8%)	2mo	$325,000	$257	75
2518 Cochran St	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,540 (+12%)	3mo	$325,000	$211	71
2212 Semmes St	0.40mi	3/1.0	1,320 (-4%)	1mo	$181,000	$137	69
2109 Gentry St	0.40mi	3/1.5	1,292 (-6%)	2mo	$215,000	$166	67
2827 Robertson St	0.36mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,317 (-5%)	2mo	$235,000	$178	65
2715 Chapman St	0.21mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,214 (-12%)	2mo	$175,997	$145	64
1118 Hammock St	0.36mi	3/1.5	1,252 (-9%)	8mo	$280,000	$224	60
2209 Noble St	0.47mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,464 (+6%)	8mo	$279,000	$191	55
2006 Stevens St	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,243 (-10%)	6mo	$225,000	$181	47
2111 Davis St	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,243 (-10%)	6mo	$175,000	$141	46
2309 Chestnut St	0.46mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,192 (-14%)	3mo	$225,000	$189	44
2709 Davis St	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,547 (+12%)	3mo	$114,900	$74	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.84% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-22,888
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-20,026
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77009

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 604
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,273 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$440 /mo · $5,286/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$477
• Net cashflow: $223

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,991

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $336	-5% $280	+0% $223	+5% $166	+10% $110
Rent	-10% $43	-5% $133	+0% $223	+5% $313	+10% $403
Rate	-1.0pp $324	-0.5pp $274	base $223	+0.5pp $171	+1.0pp $118

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2706 Cochran St Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	1791	$2,700	$1.51	21d	1	0.24mi
2310 N Main St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	997	$1,687	$1.69	44d	1	0.60mi
1714 Mary St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,400	$2.18	44d	1	0.61mi
2016 N Main St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1169	$2,200	$1.88	44d	1	0.61mi
1550 Burnett St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	877	$2,108	$2.40	0d	36	0.64mi
412 Paschall St Unit 1316398P Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1130	$4,840	$4.28	14d	1	0.69mi
1550 Leona St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	835	$1,905	$2.28	3d	19	0.69mi
1514 Everett St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	970	$1,840	$1.90	21d	1	0.70mi
1725 N Main St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	988	$2,263	$2.29	44d	1	0.70mi
410 James St Unit 1031793P Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1593	$5,668	$3.56	0d	1	0.71mi
410 James St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1602	$6,750	$4.21	44d	1	0.71mi
1550 Leona St Unit 1587 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1131	$1,942	$1.72	44d	1	0.72mi
2623 Keene St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	965	$3,280	$3.40	18d	44	0.73mi
1250 Leona St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	885	$1,990	$2.25	0d	14	0.73mi
1625 N Main St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0–3.0	994	$2,354	$2.37	0d	41	0.74mi
914 Bunton St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1389	$1,950	$1.40	44d	1	0.79mi
207 Carl St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1230	$2,250	$1.83	44d	1	0.80mi
200 Hogan St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1058	$1,904	$1.80	13d	1	0.88mi
306 North St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	950	$1,150	$1.21	44d	1	0.89mi
1039 Hillstar St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1780	$2,750	$1.54	13d	1	1.15mi
3300 Lyons Ave Unit 304 Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1393	$1,460	$1.05	44d	1	1.15mi
650 McKee St Unit 424 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	966	$1,690	$1.75	6d	1	1.17mi
650 McKee St Apt 422 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	966	$1,690	$1.75	9d	1	1.17mi
650 McKee St Unit 3112 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1136	$2,074	$1.83	0d	1	1.17mi
650 McKee St Unit 2148 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	966	$1,715	$1.78	0d	1	1.17mi
650 McKee St Unit 3174 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1136	$2,114	$1.86	12d	1	1.17mi
650 McKee St Apt 425 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	966	$1,674	$1.73	0d	1	1.17mi
650 McKee St Unit 2174 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	966	$1,714	$1.77	12d	1	1.17mi
650 McKee St Unit 687 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	966	$1,715	$1.78	44d	1	1.17mi
650 McKee St Unit 683 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1136	$2,125	$1.87	44d	1	1.17mi
1307 Bayou St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1814	$2,400	$1.32	9d	1	1.19mi
1303 Bayou St Unit C Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1869	$3,200	$1.71	44d	1	1.20mi
6 N Main St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1248	$2,453	$1.97	44d	1	1.21mi
6 N Main St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1248	$2,453	$1.97	22d	1	1.21mi
1513 Cage St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1467	$1,550	$1.06	44d	1	1.25mi
1499 Crockett St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1062	$2,424	$2.28	25d	1	1.28mi
1512 Crockett St Unit A Houston, TX	2.0	2.5	1808	$2,800	$1.55	44d	1	1.30mi
1524 Evelyn St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1804	$2,800	$1.55	44d	1	1.34mi
915 Franklin St Unit 312202 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1398	$1,987	$1.42	44d	1	1.38mi
915 Franklin St Unit 3-324 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1158	$2,498	$2.16	44d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $200,000 Active 313 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 310 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 309 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 308 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 307 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 305 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $200,000 Active 301 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $200,000 Active 300 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $200,000 Active 299 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $200,000 Active 296 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $200,000 Active 293 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 292 DOM
13. 2026-05-19
    price $210,000
14. 2026-04-09
    price $225,000
15. 2025-12-12
    price $265,000
16. 2025-09-25
    price $279,000
17. 2025-08-12
    listed $289,900 Active
18. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,286 · $440/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,286 · $440/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,276
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$5,286
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,182
• − Management: −$2,182
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$395
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$95
• After-tax cash flow: $2,771/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 35,769
• Household income: $83,148
• Rent vs Own: 42.4% rent · 57.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 994.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 53% White 33% Two or more races 22% Black 8% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 46%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -533.57%
• Current HPI: 219.5037
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.84%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-27.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $210,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-12 Price Changed $265,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-25 Price Changed $279,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-12 Listed $289,900 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,286 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.