3161 45th St · Meridian, MS 39305

$100,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,190 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 409 Days on market

Built 1956 10,454 sqft lot $84/sqft · 9% below area Est $122k · 18% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home is a perfect starter home featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, encompassing approximately 1,321 square feet of living space. Situated in a residential neighborhood, this home offers a comfortable layout, this property is ready to be called home it's just waiting for you to see it.

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Listed 409 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $313 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#141 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Meridian Public Schools (town): math 13% / reading 17% proficiency, ranked #109 of 130 in MS (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 85% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Poplar Springs Elementary School (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #221 of 375 statewide, top 60%, 412 students, 100% FRL); Northwest Junior High School (math 14% / reading 18%, grade F, #129 of 179 statewide, top 73%, 566 students, 100% FRL); Meridian High School (math 17% / reading 15%, grade F, #145 of 197 statewide, top 74%, 1,301 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 85% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 18 units permitted in Lauderdale County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lauderdale County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 409 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $88,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 409 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.40%
• DSCR: 1.60
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $122,240
• List price: $100,000
• Delta: -18.19%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $3,716
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.03×
• Total profit: $28,885
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39305

• Home prices YoY: -31.7%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,231 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$94 /mo · $1,125/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $313

Break-even live

Break-even rent $835

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $369	-5% $341	+0% $313	+5% $284	+10% $256
Rent	-10% $216	-5% $264	+0% $313	+5% $361	+10% $410
Rate	-1.0pp $363	-0.5pp $338	base $313	+0.5pp $287	+1.0pp $261

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3315 N Hills St Meridian, MS	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	975	$1,320	$1.35	45d	8	0.23mi
2705 1/2 45th St Unit C-4 Meridian, MS	2.0	1.0	864	$995	$1.15	45d	1	0.34mi
3915 30th Ave Unit 1 Meridian, MS	2.0	1.0	700	$900	$1.29	45d	1	0.40mi
4907 Shumate Rd Meridian, MS	2.0	1.0	700	$822	$1.18	45d	4	0.44mi
4924 24th Pl Meridian, MS	2.0	1.5	980	$825	$0.84	45d	1	0.71mi
4609 Broadmoor Dr Meridian, MS	2.0	1.0	1050	$995	$0.95	45d	1	0.83mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-12
   days on market $100,000 Active 409 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $100,000 Active 406 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $100,000 Active 405 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $100,000 Active 404 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $100,000 Active 399 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $100,000 Active 398 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $100,000 Active 397 DOM
8. 2026-05-30
   days on market $100,000 Active 396 DOM
9. 2026-01-14
   status Active 292-char remark

   Show marketing remark (292 chars)

   This home is a perfect starter home featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, encompassing approximately 1,321 square feet of living space. Situated in a residential neighborhood, this home offers a comfortable layout, this property is ready to be called home it's just waiting for you to see it.

10. 2025-12-31
    historical 292-char remark

    Show marketing remark (292 chars)

    This home is a perfect starter home featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, encompassing approximately 1,321 square feet of living space. Situated in a residential neighborhood, this home offers a comfortable layout, this property is ready to be called home it's just waiting for you to see it.

11. 2025-04-14
    listed $100,000 Active 292-char remark

    Show marketing remark (292 chars)

    This home is a perfect starter home featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, encompassing approximately 1,321 square feet of living space. Situated in a residential neighborhood, this home offers a comfortable layout, this property is ready to be called home it's just waiting for you to see it.

12. 2008-04-15
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,125 · $94/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,125 · $94/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,774
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$1,125
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,182
• − Management: −$1,182
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $2,274
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$546
• After-tax cash flow: $3,208/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Meridian Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2802910
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 17% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $30,236
• Composite: 11.87/100
• National rank: #9673
• State rank: #109 of 130 in MS

Livability — Meridian

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #141
• US rank: #14839

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing A Health & safety D- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Meridian, MS
• County: Lauderdale County · 42,445 people
• City population: 42,445
• Metro: Meridian, MS
• Population (ZIP): 21,638
• Household income: $67,712
• Rent vs Own: 31.9% rent · 68.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 791.0

Population outlook (Lauderdale County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 75,158 people
• By 2030: 72,770 · -3.2%
• By 2040: 67,309 · -10.4%
• By 2050: 61,797 · -17.8%
• By 2075: 49,790 · -33.8%
• By 2100: 39,797 · -47.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Black 36% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Arabic 2% Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lauderdale

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.2) · D 39.0% · R 60.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.3pp toward R · 2008: -18.9pp · 2024: -21.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.2 2020: R+16.0 2016: R+23.0 2012: R+15.5 2008: R+18.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.15%
• Current HPI: 123.1214
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Meridian, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-14 Relisted — MLSU
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2025-04-14 Listed $100,000 MLSU
• 2008-04-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,125 · +0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.