40 Pelly Rd · Independence, KY 41051

$249,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,217 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Est $292k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• ARV discount +14.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Simply Awesome! Gorgeous "Farmhouse" Style Home*Beautifully Remodeled w. Wood Plank Ceilings/Easy Care Wood Laminate Flooring*Butcher Block Countertops/Stainless Appliances*Stone Backsplash*Stone Surround Fireplace*Oversized 2 Car Garage w. Separate Workshop Space*Large Fenced Yard*Double Driveways (Great for RV's/Boats)*2 New Baths*Newly Remodeled thruout! Buy w. No Money Down USDA Loan!

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 4 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $49 ($592/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (16.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $208k (16.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.7% in Independence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#130 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Kenton County (suburban): math 42% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #14 of 165 in KY (top 8%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Woodland Middle School (math 38% / reading 50%, grade D, #40 of 217 statewide, top 19%, 616 students, 48% FRL); Simon Kenton High School (math 40% / reading 44%, grade F, #32 of 254 statewide, top 13%, 1,859 students, 37% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 258 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 699 units permitted in Kenton County in 2024 (287 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kenton County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $170k; 47% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $207,814 (16.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.85%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $292,080
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
40 Pelly Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,217 (0%)	1mo	$242,000	$199	99
5217 Belle Dr	0.52mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,206 (-1%)	4mo	$232,000	$192	66
46 Carrie Way	0.73mi	3/2.5	1,225 (+1%)	1mo	$352,000	$287	62
5114 Christopher Dr	0.55mi	3/2.5	1,320 (+8%)	0mo	$275,000	$208	58
64 Sylvan Dr	0.39mi	3/1.5	1,080 (-11%)	5mo	$269,000	$249	57
114 Sylvan Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,125 (-8%)	7mo	$270,000	$240	55
5190 Christopher Dr	0.61mi	3/1.5	1,120 (-8%)	1mo	$255,000	$228	55
120 Carrie Way	0.66mi	3/2.5	1,287 (+6%)	7mo	$340,000	$264	52
164 Friar Tuck Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,098 (-10%)	10mo	$235,000	$214	51
4949 Scenic Ridge Ln	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,386 (+14%)	1mo	$440,000	$317	49
5186 Christopher Dr	0.61mi	3/1.5	1,337 (+10%)	6mo	$256,500	$192	48
4940 Pritchard Ln	0.69mi	3/2.5	1,144 (-6%)	13mo	$312,000	$273	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.37% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-32,330
• Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-2,461
• Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41051

• Home prices YoY: -32.6%
• Rents YoY: 5.4%
• Active inventory: 258
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,078 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$178 /mo · $2,133/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$436
• Net cashflow: $49

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,016

Max offer price $249,900

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $191	-5% $120	+0% $49	+5% $-21	+10% $-92
Rent	-10% $-115	-5% $-33	+0% $49	+5% $131	+10% $214
Rate	-1.0pp $175	-0.5pp $113	base $49	+0.5pp $-15	+1.0pp $-81

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-27
   status Active
3. 2026-04-18
   status Pending
4. 2026-04-17
   price $249,900
5. 2026-04-15
   status Active
6. 2026-04-08
   status Pending
7. 2026-04-06
   listed $269,900 Active
8. 2018-04-09
   soldstatus $169,900
9. 2018-04-06
   soldstatus $169,900 401-char remark

   Show marketing remark (401 chars)

   Simply Awesome! Gorgeous "Farmhouse" Style Home*Beautifully Remodeled w. Wood Plank Ceilings/Easy Care Wood Laminate Flooring*Butcher Block Countertops/Stainless Appliances*Stone Backsplash*Stone Surround Fireplace*Oversized 2 Car Garage w. Separate Workshop Space*Large Fenced Yard*Double Driveways (Great for RV's/Boats)*2 New Baths*Newly Remodeled thruout! Buy w. No Money Down USDA Loan!

10. 2018-01-11
    listed $169,900 401-char remark

    Show marketing remark (401 chars)

    Simply Awesome! Gorgeous "Farmhouse" Style Home*Beautifully Remodeled w. Wood Plank Ceilings/Easy Care Wood Laminate Flooring*Butcher Block Countertops/Stainless Appliances*Stone Backsplash*Stone Surround Fireplace*Oversized 2 Car Garage w. Separate Workshop Space*Large Fenced Yard*Double Driveways (Great for RV's/Boats)*2 New Baths*Newly Remodeled thruout! Buy w. No Money Down USDA Loan!

11. 1993-03-08
    soldstatus $20,000
12. 1988-05-23
    soldstatus $17,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,133 · $178/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,149 · $179/mo
• Expected delta: +$16/yr (+$1/mo · 0.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,938
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$2,133
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,995
• − Management: −$1,995
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$3,703
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$889
• After-tax cash flow: $1,481/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kenton County
• NCES district ID: 2103090
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $66,183
• Composite: 40.17/100
• National rank: #3789
• State rank: #14 of 165 in KY

Livability — Independence

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #130
• US rank: #6165

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Kenton County · 142,881 people
• City population: 33,054
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 33,054
• Household income: $104,201
• Rent vs Own: 12.5% rent · 87.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 243.0

Population outlook (Kenton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 174,205 people
• By 2030: 177,897 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 182,671 · +4.9%
• By 2050: 183,543 · +5.4%
• By 2075: 178,977 · +2.7%
• By 2100: 159,920 · -8.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Chinese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kenton

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.7) · D 38.2% · R 59.9% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.9pp no change · 2008: -20.9pp · 2024: -21.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.7 2020: R+19.3 2016: R+26.1 2012: R+24.3 2008: R+20.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.60%
• Current HPI: 218.492
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.37%
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+1370.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — NKMLS
• 2026-04-27 Relisted — NKMLS
• 2026-04-18 Pending — NKMLS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $249,900 NKMLS
• 2026-04-15 Relisted — NKMLS
• 2026-04-08 Pending — NKMLS
• 2026-04-06 Listed $269,900 NKMLS
• 2018-04-09 Sold (Public Records) $169,900 Public Records
• 2018-04-06 Sold (MLS) $169,900 NKMLS
• 2018-01-11 Listed $169,900 NKMLS
• 1993-03-08 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records
• 1988-05-23 Sold (Public Records) $17,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+12.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,133 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.