10580 Greenridge Rd · Cut and Shoot, TX 77303

$120,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,566 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1987 1.00 ac lot $77/sqft · 54% below area ↓ 36% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great opportunity for this property located in the Greenridge Farms subdivision. This property is on 3/4 acer lot nestled a beautiful wooded area with lots of potential. This is one that will be great for investors to have a canvas to developed into a wonderful project. Schedule a showing today. Don't miss out on this one. It will move fast!

Key facts

• 3/4 acre lot
• Wooded area
• 1 acre lot

Tags

• GREENRIDGE FARMS SUBDIVISION
• 3/4 ACRE LOT
• WOODED AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: No dedicated parking
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story entry (first-floor living implied)
• Construction: Built in 1987; Wood siding construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Bedroom on the first floor (10 x 11); Primary bedroom on the first floor (12 x 13)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: One fireplace; Two total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $453 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $116k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 4.9% in Cut and Shoot — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,326 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Caney Creek H S (math 33% / reading 42%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 2,504 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 34% district-wide (45 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 38% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 721 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $116,400 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.19%
• DSCR: 1.72
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $258,637
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: -53.60%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15818 Berry Hill Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,552 (-1%)	4mo	$279,900	$180	70
16448 Blossom Grove Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,552 (-1%)	6mo	$282,900	$182	63
16435 Blossom Grove Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,552 (-1%)	4mo	$282,900	$182	63
15636 Plum Brook Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,552 (-1%)	2mo	$279,900	$180	62
15543 Caramel Springs Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,552 (-1%)	0mo	$279,900	$180	60
16430 Blossom Grove Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,552 (-1%)	8mo	$279,900	$180	60
16339 Orange Blossom Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,474 (-6%)	3mo	$273,990	$186	58
15716 Plum Brook Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,474 (-6%)	0mo	$269,990	$183	55
15700 Plum Brook Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,474 (-6%)	1mo	$269,991	$183	55
15709 Plum Brook Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,474 (-6%)	1mo	$267,990	$182	53
15684 Plum Brook Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,474 (-6%)	5mo	$267,990	$182	52
15671 Plum Brook Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,474 (-6%)	5mo	$271,990	$185	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $4,661
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.68×
• Total profit: $22,815
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77303

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 721
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,638 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$162 /mo · $1,939/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$344
• Net cashflow: $453

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,064

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $521	-5% $487	+0% $453	+5% $419	+10% $385
Rent	-10% $324	-5% $389	+0% $453	+5% $518	+10% $583
Rate	-1.0pp $514	-0.5pp $484	base $453	+0.5pp $422	+1.0pp $391

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15793 Bayberry Trace Dr Conroe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1639	$1,705	$1.04	0d	1	0.55mi
15642 Plum Brook Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1306	$1,610	$1.23	0d	1	0.62mi
15663 Plum Brook Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1306	$1,610	$1.23	0d	1	0.64mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $120,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $120,000 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $120,000 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    listed $120,000 Active 344-char remark
16. 2026-04-23
    soldstatus $187,065

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,939 · $162/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,196 · $183/mo
• Expected delta: +$257/yr (+$21/mo · 13.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,659
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,939
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,573
• − Management: −$1,573
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $3,762
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$903
• After-tax cash flow: $4,538/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cut and Shoot

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1326
• US rank: #22835

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,854
• Household income: $75,348
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 464.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 17% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 31%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.71%
• Current HPI: 269.5367
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.31%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-35.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $120,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-23 Sold (Public Records) $187,065 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,939 · +15.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.