6 Surf Ct · Barnegat, NJ 08005

$420,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,132 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1987 9,583 sqft lot Est $569k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great cul-de-sac location highlights this updated home, complete with a brand new kitchen & appliances, carpet, vinyl, rear slider and fresh interior paint. Very convenient to schools, shopping centers and the Parkway. This is a Fannie Mae HomePath property. Purchase this property for as little as 5% down! This property is approved for HomePath Mortgage Financing and HomePath Renovation Mortgage Financing.

Key facts

• 9,583 sq ft lot
• Built 1987
• Listed 14 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $420k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-497 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $332k (20.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $311k (26.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $311k (26.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.6% in Barnegat — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#310 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Barnegat Township School District (suburban): math 23% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #285 of 472 in NJ (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 253 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($94k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 31y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $156k; list at $420k implies a 169% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $310,620 (26.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.07%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $569,244
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
122 Rockrimmon Blvd	0.23mi	3/3.0	2,124 (-0%)	3mo	$725,000	$341	82
15 Commodore Ct	0.30mi	4/1.5 (+1)	2,137 (+0%)	0mo	$465,000	$218	78
33 Compass Ln	0.16mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,008 (-6%)	3mo	$450,000	$224	72
8 Compass Ln	0.06mi	3/3.5	1,943 (-9%)	9mo	$475,000	$244	69
35 Bayside Ave	0.12mi	3/2.5	1,836 (-14%)	4mo	$500,000	$272	66
19 Midship Dr	0.26mi	3/1.5	1,828 (-14%)	2mo	$495,000	$271	60
18 Cannonball Dr	0.63mi	3/2.5	2,048 (-4%)	4mo	$460,000	$225	59
112 Edenton Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	2,043 (-4%)	3mo	$553,000	$271	57
25 Aphrodite Dr	0.59mi	3/3.0	2,310 (+8%)	6mo	$617,000	$267	50
9 Robin Ln	0.46mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,824 (-14%)	1mo	$410,000	$225	49
66 Butler Dr	0.68mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,917 (-10%)	4mo	$615,000	$321	43
133 Village Dr	0.61mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,907 (-11%)	7mo	$400,000	$210	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-99,656
• Equity at exit: $62,623

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-127,253
• Equity at exit: $36,314

Cash invested: $117,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08005

• Active inventory: 253
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,106 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,203
• Tax from tax record: −$574 /mo · $6,884/yr
• Insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$652
• Net cashflow: $-497

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,736

Max offer price $332,146

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $105,000
• Closing costs: $12,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
67 Deer Run Dr S Barnegat, NJ	3.0	2.5	1682	$3,400	$2.02	25d	1	0.84mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2025-02-02
   status Pending
2. 2025-01-18
   listed $420,000 Active
3. 2025-01-15
   historical $420,000
4. 2014-09-26
   soldstatus $156,000 415-char remark

   Show marketing remark (415 chars)

   Great cul-de-sac location highlights this updated home, complete with a brand new kitchen & appliances, carpet, vinyl, rear slider and fresh interior paint. Very convenient to schools, shopping centers and the Parkway. This is a Fannie Mae HomePath property. Purchase this property for as little as 5% down! This property is approved for HomePath Mortgage Financing and HomePath Renovation Mortgage Financing.

5. 2014-09-26
   soldstatus $156,000 415-char remark

   Show marketing remark (415 chars)

   Great cul-de-sac location highlights this updated home, complete with a brand new kitchen & appliances, carpet, vinyl, rear slider and fresh interior paint. Very convenient to schools, shopping centers and the Parkway. This is a Fannie Mae HomePath property. Purchase this property for as little as 5% down! This property is approved for HomePath Mortgage Financing and HomePath Renovation Mortgage Financing.

6. 2014-08-25
   historical 415-char remark

   Show marketing remark (415 chars)

   Great cul-de-sac location highlights this updated home, complete with a brand new kitchen & appliances, carpet, vinyl, rear slider and fresh interior paint. Very convenient to schools, shopping centers and the Parkway. This is a Fannie Mae HomePath property. Purchase this property for as little as 5% down! This property is approved for HomePath Mortgage Financing and HomePath Renovation Mortgage Financing.

7. 2014-07-11
   listed $157,500 415-char remark

   Show marketing remark (415 chars)

   Great cul-de-sac location highlights this updated home, complete with a brand new kitchen & appliances, carpet, vinyl, rear slider and fresh interior paint. Very convenient to schools, shopping centers and the Parkway. This is a Fannie Mae HomePath property. Purchase this property for as little as 5% down! This property is approved for HomePath Mortgage Financing and HomePath Renovation Mortgage Financing.

8. 2014-07-11
   listed $157,500 415-char remark

   Show marketing remark (415 chars)

   Great cul-de-sac location highlights this updated home, complete with a brand new kitchen & appliances, carpet, vinyl, rear slider and fresh interior paint. Very convenient to schools, shopping centers and the Parkway. This is a Fannie Mae HomePath property. Purchase this property for as little as 5% down! This property is approved for HomePath Mortgage Financing and HomePath Renovation Mortgage Financing.

9. 1995-11-06
   soldstatus $86,000
10. 1995-11-01
    soldstatus $86,000
11. 1995-08-25
    historical
12. 1995-01-11
    listed $89,900
13. 1987-09-17
    soldstatus $100,490

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,884 · $574/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,671 · $723/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,787/yr (+$149/mo · 26.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,274
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,527
• − Property taxes: −$6,884
• − Insurance: −$2,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,982
• − Management: −$2,982
• − Depreciation: −$12,218
• Taxable loss: −$13,419
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,220
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,747/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Barnegat Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3416470
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $63,645
• Composite: 31.15/100
• National rank: #6059
• State rank: #285 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Barnegat

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #310
• US rank: #9556

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• City population: 26,866
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 26,866
• Household income: $93,584
• Rent vs Own: 11.4% rent · 88.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 384.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Scotch-Irish 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -204.01%
• Current HPI: 344.3189
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+318.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2025-02-02 Pending — MOMLS
• 2025-01-18 Listed $420,000 MOMLS
• 2025-01-15 Coming Soon $420,000 MOMLS
• 2014-09-26 Sold (MLS) $156,000 SJSRMLS
• 2014-09-26 Sold (MLS) $156,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-08-25 Listing Removed — SJSRMLS
• 2014-07-11 Listed $157,500 SJSRMLS
• 2014-07-11 Listed $157,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 1995-11-06 Sold (Public Records) $86,000 Public Records
• 1995-11-01 Sold (MLS) $86,000 MOMLS
• 1995-08-25 Delisted — MOMLS
• 1995-01-11 Listed $89,900 MOMLS
• 1987-09-17 Sold (Public Records) $100,490 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,884 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.