48 Hemlock Ridge Rd · Randolph, ME 04330

$349,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 894 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1987 1.00 ac lot $390/sqft · 103% above area Est $303k · 15% over ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.8/30.0
• Schools +7.3/10.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.7/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

Tucked away on a dead-end street, this three-bedroom, one-bathroom split-level home is ready for new ownership! Pull into the paved driveway, & you'll immediately appreciate the two-bay garage, which is insulated, sheetrocked, & heated with a wood stove - ideal for storage, hobbies, or working year round. Out back, summer fun awaits with a huge deck surrounding the above-ground pool, plus an awesome screen room. Hang up a TV in the screen room as the current owners did so you can watch your favorite show or catch a ballgame poolside! What an awesome set up for entertaining guests! Step inside & you'll love the beautiful hardwood floors throughout the upper level. The kitchen

Key facts

• Insulated garage
• Heated garage
• Two-bay garage

Tags

• PAVED DRIVEWAY
• TWO-BAY GARAGE
• INSULATED GARAGE
• HEATED GARAGE
• HUGE DECK
• ABOVE-GROUND POOL

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached heated 2-car garage with automatic door opener; Paved driveway
• Utilities: Private well water; Private sewer; Electric service with circuit breakers; Electric water heater
• Home design: Single family residence; Built in 1987
• Construction: Wood frame construction with vinyl siding; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Shed(s); Above-ground pool; Rural, subdivided, level lot; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Gas range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the first floor; One bedroom in the basement
• Flooring: Laminate; Tile; Wood; Hardwood; Plank
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Wood stove
• Interior features: Finished and unfinished full basement with interior (doghouse) entry; 6 total rooms; Heat stove in basement living area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath multifamily listed at $349k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $352 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $332k (4.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $332k (4.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#104 in ME) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, schools F.
• RSU 12 (rural): math 86% / reading 86% proficiency, ranked #50 of 112 in ME (top 45%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.3%/yr); 55 active listings in the ZIP; 460 units permitted in Kennebec County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,320/mo this rent would consume 73% of the median local household income ($55k/yr) (locally 760% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kennebec County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($344k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $332,000 (4.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.13%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $303,011
• List price: $349,000
• Delta: 15.18%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-26,159
• Equity at exit: $52,037

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.41×
• Total profit: $40,507
• Equity at exit: $30,175

Cash invested: $97,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Maine: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Portland has rent control referendum (2020); strong habitability; security deposit caps.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 04330

• Home prices YoY: -4.7%
• Rents YoY: 5.3%
• Active inventory: 55
• Price-to-rent: 17.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,320 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,830
• Tax from tax record: −$229 /mo · $2,749/yr
• Insurance: −$145
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$697
• Net cashflow: $352

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,875

Max offer price $349,000

Occupancy floor 84%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	1	$3,320
Total (2 units)			$3,320

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,250
• Closing costs: $10,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $349,000 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $349,000 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $349,000 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $349,000 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   price $349,000 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $359,000 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $359,000 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $359,000 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $359,000 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    price $359,000 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $369,000 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $369,000 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $369,000 Active 15 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $369,000 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $369,000 Active 12 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $369,000 Active 11 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $369,000 Active 10 DOM
18. 2026-05-13
    listed $369,000 Active 1433-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ME · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,749 · $229/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,748 · $312/mo
• Expected delta: +$999/yr (+$83/mo · 36.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 14% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,840
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,549
• − Property taxes: −$2,749
• − Insurance: −$2,542
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,187
• − Management: −$3,187
• − Depreciation: −$10,153
• Taxable loss: −$1,528
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$367
• After-tax cash flow: $4,587/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: RSU 12
• NCES district ID: 2314780
• Math proficiency: 86% ▲ 58.00%
• Reading proficiency: 86% ▲ 35.00%
• Median HH income: $49,792
• Composite: 72.62/100
• National rank: #197
• State rank: #50 of 112 in ME

Livability — Randolph

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #104
• US rank: #11932

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Kennebec County · 54,560 people
• City population: 1,479
• Metro: Augusta-Waterville, ME
• Population (ZIP): 26,690
• Household income: $54,775
• Rent vs Own: 37.8% rent · 62.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 760.0

Population outlook (Kennebec County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 115,421 people
• By 2030: 111,852 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 103,757 · -10.1%
• By 2050: 95,710 · -17.1%
• By 2075: 78,172 · -32.3%
• By 2100: 59,500 · -48.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 18% Slovak 4% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kennebec

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 50.2% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.5pp toward R · 2008: 14.8pp · 2024: -2.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.8 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+3.7 2012: D+13.5 2008: D+14.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -17.46%
• Current HPI: 353.9463
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.35%
• Metro: Augusta-Waterville, ME
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-5.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Price Changed $349,000 MREIS
• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $359,000 MREIS
• 2026-05-27 Relisted — MREIS
• 2026-05-20 Pending — MREIS
• 2026-05-13 Listed $369,000 MREIS

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,749 · +7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.