3016 Cesareo Dr · Grand Prairie, TX 75052

$399,999

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,521 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 2001 6,621 sqft lot $114/sqft · at area comps Est $410k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.6/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Exciting 5 bedroom 3 bathroom home! Guests are greeted by charming curb appeal, and a covered front porch. There are neutral paint colors throughout, and a large kitchen with ample cabinet storage.

Key facts

• Generous kitchen
• Peaceful backyard
• 6,621 sq ft lot

Tags

• GENEROUS KITCHEN
• PEACEFUL BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Possession at closing/funding; Listing is active and offered under an exclusive right to sell agreement; Directions provided to the property
• Financial info: Lender: Meridian Mortgage; Loan type treated as clear; No second mortgage; Listing accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA, and VA financing
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Two covered garage spaces (2-car garage)
• Security: Security details not provided
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Two levels; Built in 2001; Subdivision: Mirabella Village Add
• Construction: Year built 2001; Construction material details not provided; Roof details not provided; Foundation details not provided
• Exterior features: Wood fencing; Grassed vegetation; Clay soil

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Electric oven; Microwave; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Five bedrooms total; Primary bedroom on level 2 (approx. 20 x 17); Additional bedrooms on level 2 (approx. 14 x 11, 13 x 11, 13 x 11); One bedroom on level 1 (approx. 13 x 12)
• Flooring: Flooring details not provided
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: High-speed internet available; Pantry; Walk-in closets; Ventilation for improved indoor air quality; Two living areas; Two dining areas; Seven total rooms; One wood-burning fireplace in the living room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry/utility details not provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($23k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $400k).
• Recommended offer: $388k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.2% vs local median 3.6% in Grand Prairie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#33 in TX, #1,660 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
• Mansfield ISD (suburban): math 47% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #125 of 826 in TX (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 289 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $6,372/mo this rent would consume 86% of the median local household income ($89k/yr) (locally 3118% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.1% rent growth), your $112k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($388k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $387,999 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.59% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.95%
• DSCR: 1.93
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $409,870
• List price: $399,999
• Delta: 3.69%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2303 Mainsail Ln	0.40mi	5/3.5	3,380 (-4%)	10mo	$374,999	$111	65
2848 Willow Glen Ct	0.35mi	6/4.0 (+1)	3,357 (-5%)	4mo	$450,000	$134	63
2803 Ivy Glen Dr	0.48mi	5/4.0	3,579 (+2%)	10mo	$575,000	$161	62
2824 Lazy Creek Dr	0.43mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,776 (+7%)	1mo	$519,900	$138	60
2852 Willow Glen Ct	0.36mi	5/4.0	3,744 (+6%)	12mo	$500,000	$134	58
2904 Crystal Way	0.45mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,163 (-10%)	4mo	$424,750	$134	51
2827 Cypress Glen Dr	0.36mi	4/2.5 (-1)	3,085 (-12%)	7mo	$449,999	$146	49
7001 Montego Ct	0.57mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,380 (-4%)	13mo	$384,999	$114	49
2204 Delaford Dr	0.61mi	4/2.5 (-1)	3,380 (-4%)	13mo	$350,000	$104	47
7501 Lake Whitney Dr	0.62mi	4/2.5 (-1)	3,400 (-3%)	16mo	$395,000	$116	45
5844 Sunny Meadow Ln	0.40mi	4/2.5 (-1)	3,014 (-14%)	10mo	$415,000	$138	42
2852 Ector Dr	0.69mi	5/2.5	2,999 (-15%)	9mo	$410,000	$137	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $41,814
• Equity at exit: $59,641

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.14×
• Total profit: $127,529
• Equity at exit: $34,585

Cash invested: $112,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75052

• Home prices YoY: -26.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 289
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,372 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,098
• Tax from tax record: −$815 /mo · $9,775/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,338
• Net cashflow: $1,955

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,897

Max offer price $399,999

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,182	-5% $2,068	+0% $1,955	+5% $1,842	+10% $1,729
Rent	-10% $1,452	-5% $1,704	+0% $1,955	+5% $2,207	+10% $2,459
Rate	-1.0pp $2,157	-0.5pp $2,057	base $1,955	+0.5pp $1,852	+1.0pp $1,746

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $100,000
• Closing costs: $12,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3116 Paolo Dr Unit 1056412P Grand Prairie, TX	5.0	3.5	2518	$10,659	$4.23	23d	1	0.16mi
7108 Port Phillip Dr Arlington, TX	4.0	2.5	3512	$3,100	$0.88	44d	1	0.53mi
5231 Kathryn Dr Grand Prairie, TX	5.0	2.5	3036	$3,400	$1.12	44d	1	1.18mi

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $399,999 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $399,999 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $399,999 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $399,999 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $399,999 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $399,999 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $399,999 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $399,999 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $399,999 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $399,999 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $425,000 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $425,000 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $425,000 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $425,000 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $425,000 Active 10 DOM
16. 2026-05-16
    historical
17. 2026-03-10
    status Active
18. 2025-11-07
    price $425,000
19. 2025-10-13
    price $465,000
20. 2025-06-15
    price $470,000
21. 2025-05-27
    price $480,000
22. 2025-05-27
    price $470,000
23. 2025-05-15
    listed $489,000 Active
24. 2023-01-03
    soldstatus
25. 2022-12-30
    soldstatus Closed 197-char remark

    Show marketing remark (197 chars)

    Exciting 5 bedroom 3 bathroom home! Guests are greeted by charming curb appeal, and a covered front porch. There are neutral paint colors throughout, and a large kitchen with ample cabinet storage.

26. 2022-12-09
    status Pending 197-char remark

    Show marketing remark (197 chars)

    Exciting 5 bedroom 3 bathroom home! Guests are greeted by charming curb appeal, and a covered front porch. There are neutral paint colors throughout, and a large kitchen with ample cabinet storage.

27. 2022-10-07
    listed $379,900 Active 197-char remark

    Show marketing remark (197 chars)

    Exciting 5 bedroom 3 bathroom home! Guests are greeted by charming curb appeal, and a covered front porch. There are neutral paint colors throughout, and a large kitchen with ample cabinet storage.

28. 2005-05-06
    soldstatus
29. 2005-03-08
    historical
30. 2004-10-21
    listed $148,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,775 · $815/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,775 · $815/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $76,469
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,406
• − Property taxes: −$9,775
• − Insurance: −$2,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,117
• − Management: −$6,117
• − Depreciation: −$11,636
• Taxable income: $18,416
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,420
• After-tax cash flow: $19,043/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mansfield ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828920
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $81,934
• Composite: 45.82/100
• National rank: #2558
• State rank: #125 of 826 in TX

Livability — Grand Prairie

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #33
• US rank: #1660

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Grand Prairie, TX
• County: Dallas County · 2,612,404 people
• City population: 201,439
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 97,278
• Household income: $89,301
• Rent vs Own: 35.4% rent · 64.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 3118.0

Population outlook (Tarrant County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,380,417 people
• By 2030: 2,578,900 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 2,974,995 · +25.0%
• By 2050: 3,350,489 · +40.8%
• By 2075: 4,216,909 · +77.2%
• By 2100: 4,741,527 · +99.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 39% Black 29% White 19% Two or more races 16% Asian 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 27% Vietnamese 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tarrant

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.1) · D 46.7% · R 51.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -5.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.1 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+8.7 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.08%
• Current HPI: 289.3711
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.08%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+169.4% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-07 Price Changed $399,999 NTREIS
• 2026-05-20 Listed $425,000 NTREIS
• 2026-05-16 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-03-10 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $425,000 NTREIS
• 2025-10-13 Price Changed $465,000 NTREIS
• 2025-06-15 Price Changed $470,000 NTREIS
• 2025-05-27 Price Changed $480,000 NTREIS
• 2025-05-27 Price Changed $470,000 NTREIS
• 2025-05-15 Listed $489,000 NTREIS
• 2023-01-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-12-30 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2022-12-09 Pending — NTREIS
• 2022-10-07 Listed $379,900 NTREIS
• 2005-05-06 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2005-03-08 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2004-10-21 Listed $148,500 NTREIS

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,775 · -0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.