313 Central Ave · St. David, IL 61563

$45,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,920 sqft · Other · 24 Days on market

Built 1900 8,140 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +9.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks

This cute 1.5-story home offers four bedrooms, two full baths and is nestled in a quiet neighborhood in St David, complete with a spacious detached two-car garage. The main level offers a generous living room, beautiful eat-in kitchen with island and several included appliances, a dining room, a carpeted den or office, main-floor laundry room, two comfortable bedrooms, and two full baths. Upstairs, you'll find two additional bedrooms, including one with hardwood flooring. Along with the kitchen appliances, the washer and dryer are also included. Recent updates include shingles installed in 2022 on the original portion of the house.

Key facts

• Hardwood flooring
• Recent updates
• Eat-in kitchen

Tags

• SPACIOUS DETACHED GARAGE
• GENEROUS LIVING ROOM
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• MAIN-FLOOR LAUNDRY ROOM
• HARDWOOD FLOORING
• RECENT UPDATES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Septic system (water/sewer); Electric power available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Not new construction
• Construction: Shingle roof; Built in 1900; Total living area about 1920; Unfinished basement (crawl space)
• Exterior features: Level lot; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (locations across main, upper, lower, and basement levels); Bedroom sizes include: one at about 17.75 x 9.5, one at about 12.16 x 10.83, one at about 11.91 x 10.5, and one at about 11.91 x 10.33
• Flooring: Hardwood; Carpet; Laminate; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Gas water heater
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Crawl space basement (unfinished)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Main-level laundry room (approximately 11 x 4)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $46k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $662 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $46k).
• Recommended offer: $45k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lewistown CUSD 97 (rural): math 11% / reading 14% proficiency, ranked #546 of 620 in IL (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Lewistown Jr/Sr High School (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #479 of 693 statewide, top 71%, 276 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 50% district-wide (50 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP; 14 units permitted in Fulton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($317 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (9.6% local appreciation)).
• Fulton County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (9.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($45k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $45,211 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.76% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 61.83%
• DSCR: 3.75
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.61% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 73.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.13×
• Total profit: $65,991
• Equity at exit: $40,058

10-year hold

• IRR: 67.6%
• Equity multiple: 13.52×
• Total profit: $160,930
• Equity at exit: $85,048

Cash invested: $12,852 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61563

• Home prices YoY: 5.4%
• Active inventory: 2
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,268 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$241
• Tax from tax record: −$79 /mo · $953/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $662

Break-even live

Break-even rent $429

Max offer price $45,900

Occupancy floor 43%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $688	-5% $675	+0% $662	+5% $649	+10% $636
Rent	-10% $562	-5% $612	+0% $662	+5% $712	+10% $762
Rate	-1.0pp $685	-0.5pp $674	base $662	+0.5pp $650	+1.0pp $638

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,475
• Closing costs: $1,377
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $45,900 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $45,900 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $45,900 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $45,900 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $45,900 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $45,900 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $45,900 Active 16 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $45,900 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $45,900 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $45,900 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $45,900 Active 10 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $45,900 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $45,900 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    status $45,900 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-13
    status Pending
16. 2026-05-05
    listed $45,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $953 · $79/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $998 · $83/mo
• Expected delta: +$44/yr (+$4/mo · 4.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,212
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,571
• − Property taxes: −$953
• − Insurance: −$230
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,217
• − Management: −$1,217
• − Depreciation: −$1,335
• Taxable income: $7,689
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,845
• After-tax cash flow: $6,101/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lewistown CUSD 97
• NCES district ID: 1700153
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 14% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $45,704
• Composite: 11.28/100
• National rank: #9719
• State rank: #546 of 620 in IL

Livability — St. David

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. David, IL
• City population: 548
• Population (ZIP): 548

Population outlook (Fulton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,356 people
• By 2030: 32,144 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 29,518 · -11.5%
• By 2050: 26,775 · -19.7%
• By 2075: 19,972 · -40.1%
• By 2100: 13,580 · -59.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 5% American 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Vietnam
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fulton

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.8) · D 37.1% · R 60.9% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -45.2pp toward R · 2008: 21.3pp · 2024: -23.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.8 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+15.1 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+21.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.61%
• Current HPI: 188.0535
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-05 Listed $45,900 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $953 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.