90 Carlock Rd · Murphysboro, IL 62966

$17,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,500 sqft · Other · 178 Days on market

Built 1998 2.00 ac lot $12/sqft · 77% below area $21/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Earth Berm home on Leasehold land at Carbon Lake! This property has 3 bedrooms 1.5 bathrooms. Home in need of TLC and repairs. Hold Harmless agreement must be signed before entry. This is a Fannie Mae/Homepath Property.

Key facts

• 2 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1998

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath other listed at $18k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $874 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $18k).
• Recommended offer: $16k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 64.9% vs local median 6.2% in Murphysboro — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#1,265 in IL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Murphysboro CUSD 186 (town): math 9% / reading 10% proficiency, ranked #585 of 620 in IL (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 5 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $124 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $537 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $5k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 178 days — a 12% lower offer ($16k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $15,752 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 178 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
9. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
10. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 7.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 64.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 209.31%
• DSCR: 10.31
• GRM: 1.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $77,979
• List price: $17,900
• Delta: -77.05%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 11.54×
• Total profit: $52,812
• Equity at exit: $2,669

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 24.51×
• Total profit: $117,815
• Equity at exit: $1,548

Cash invested: $5,012 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62966

• Active inventory: 79
• Price-to-rent: 1.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,290 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$94
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$22 /mo · $268/yr
• Insurance: −$7
• HOA: −$21
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$271
• Net cashflow: $874

Break-even live

Break-even rent $183

Max offer price $17,900

Occupancy floor 27%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $887	-5% $880	+0% $874	+5% $868	+10% $862
Rent	-10% $772	-5% $823	+0% $874	+5% $925	+10% $976
Rate	-1.0pp $883	-0.5pp $879	base $874	+0.5pp $870	+1.0pp $865

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $4,475
• Closing costs: $537
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $21 · $252/yr

Listing history 39 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $17,900 Pending 178 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $17,900 Active 178 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $17,900 Active 177 DOM
4. 2026-06-14
   days on market $17,900 Active 175 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $17,900 Active 174 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $19,000 Active 172 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $19,000 Active 171 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $19,000 Active 170 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $19,000 Active 169 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $19,000 Active 166 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $19,000 Active 164 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $19,000 Active 163 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $19,000 Active 162 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $19,000 Active 161 DOM
15. 2026-05-11
    price $19,000
16. 2026-05-06
    price $22,000
17. 2026-04-10
    price $24,900
18. 2026-03-09
    price $29,900
19. 2026-02-06
    price $34,000
20. 2026-01-08
    status Active
21. 2026-01-06
    historical
22. 2026-01-05
    historical
23. 2025-12-17
    historical
24. 2025-07-09
    price
25. 2025-06-09
    price
26. 2025-05-08
    listed Active
27. 2024-05-06
    historical
28. 2024-05-06
    historical
29. 2024-03-18
    listed Active
30. 2021-08-06
    historical
31. 2021-08-06
    historical
32. 2021-08-06
    historical
33. 2021-08-06
    historical
34. 2021-08-06
    historical
35. 2018-03-16
    soldstatus $74,000
36. 2013-03-15
    historical
37. 2012-10-06
    historical
38. 2011-08-24
    historical
39. 2007-11-08
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,477
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,003
• − Property taxes: −$268
• − Insurance: −$90
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,238
• − Management: −$1,238
• − HOA: −$252
• − Depreciation: −$521
• Taxable income: $10,868
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,608
• After-tax cash flow: $7,882/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Murphysboro CUSD 186
• NCES district ID: 1727610
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 10% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $36,963
• Composite: 7.97/100
• National rank: #9925
• State rank: #585 of 620 in IL

Livability — Murphysboro

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #1265
• US rank: #23786

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 13,995
• Population (ZIP): 13,995

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 59,093 people
• By 2030: 59,628 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 59,495 · +0.7%
• By 2050: 58,811 · -0.5%
• By 2075: 57,683 · -2.4%
• By 2100: 55,337 · -6.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 8% Black 8% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.0% · R 47.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: 21.8pp · 2024: 3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+3.5 2020: D+1.3 2016: D+3.0 2012: D+10.3 2008: D+21.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.39%
• Current HPI: 95.9393
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

-74.3% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $19,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $22,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $24,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $29,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $34,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-08 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-06 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-05 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-17 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-09 Price Changed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-09 Price Changed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-08 Listed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-06 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-06 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-18 Listed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-06 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-06 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-06 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-06 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-06 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-03-16 Sold (Public Records) $74,000 Public Records
• 2013-03-15 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-10-06 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-08-24 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-11-08 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+7.6%/yr

Latest (2024): $3,042 · +7.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.