4605 Forrestal St · West Pensacola, FL 32506

$223,000

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,863 sqft · Townhouse public records · 358 Days on market

Built 1974 4,700 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Short Sale. Bank approved price. Property is being sold AS-IS. This 2-story townhouse has 3 bedrooms, 3 full bathrooms plus a sunroom and vinyl plank flooring. Located within Twin Oak Villas, it's just a short drive to grocery stores, entertainment, dining, etc.

Key facts

• Sunroom
• Vinyl plank flooring
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• SUNROOM
• VINYL PLANK FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $223k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $260 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (0.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $196k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#629 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime D, schools F, amenities F.
• Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 270 active listings in the ZIP; 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 358 days — a 12% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $116k (34%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $196,240 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 358 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.00%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.85% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-17,647
• Equity at exit: $33,250

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $13,981
• Equity at exit: $19,281

Cash invested: $62,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32506

• Home prices YoY: -22.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 270
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,220 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,169
• Tax from tax record: −$232 /mo · $2,778/yr
• Insurance: −$93
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$466
• Net cashflow: $260

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,891

Max offer price $223,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,750
• Closing costs: $6,690
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $223,000 Active 358 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $223,000 Active 357 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $223,000 Active 356 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $223,000 Active 355 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $223,000 Active 353 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $223,000 Active 350 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $223,000 Active 349 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $223,000 Active 348 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $223,000 Active 347 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $223,000 Active 343 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $223,000 Active 342 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $223,000 Active 341 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $223,000 Active 340 DOM
14. 2025-11-13
    status Active 262-char remark

    Show marketing remark (262 chars)

    Short Sale. Bank approved price. Property is being sold AS-IS. This 2-story townhouse has 3 bedrooms, 3 full bathrooms plus a sunroom and vinyl plank flooring. Located within Twin Oak Villas, it's just a short drive to grocery stores, entertainment, dining, etc.

15. 2025-11-13
    price $223,000 262-char remark

    Show marketing remark (262 chars)

    Short Sale. Bank approved price. Property is being sold AS-IS. This 2-story townhouse has 3 bedrooms, 3 full bathrooms plus a sunroom and vinyl plank flooring. Located within Twin Oak Villas, it's just a short drive to grocery stores, entertainment, dining, etc.

16. 2025-08-07
    historical Contingent 262-char remark

    Show marketing remark (262 chars)

    Short Sale. Bank approved price. Property is being sold AS-IS. This 2-story townhouse has 3 bedrooms, 3 full bathrooms plus a sunroom and vinyl plank flooring. Located within Twin Oak Villas, it's just a short drive to grocery stores, entertainment, dining, etc.

17. 2025-06-25
    listed $339,000 Active 262-char remark

    Show marketing remark (262 chars)

    Short Sale. Bank approved price. Property is being sold AS-IS. This 2-story townhouse has 3 bedrooms, 3 full bathrooms plus a sunroom and vinyl plank flooring. Located within Twin Oak Villas, it's just a short drive to grocery stores, entertainment, dining, etc.

18. 2024-04-14
    historical
19. 2024-01-20
    price $238,000
20. 2023-12-16
    listed $250,000 Active
21. 2022-05-23
    soldstatus $250,000
22. 2022-05-12
    soldstatus $250,000 Sold
23. 2022-04-26
    status Pending
24. 2022-02-22
    historical Contingent
25. 2022-02-18
    listed $229,000 Active
26. 2021-11-18
    soldstatus $60,000
27. 2021-10-27
    soldstatus $60,000 Sold
28. 2021-10-25
    status Pending
29. 2021-10-13
    listed $92,500 Active
30. 2008-08-25
    historical
31. 2008-03-17
    listed $139,900
32. 1992-12-01
    soldstatus $54,500
33. 1984-11-01
    soldstatus $38,000
34. 1975-01-01
    soldstatus $199,850

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,778 · $232/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,778 · $232/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,643
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,491
• − Property taxes: −$2,778
• − Insurance: −$1,115
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,131
• − Management: −$2,131
• − Depreciation: −$6,487
• Taxable loss: −$492
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$118
• After-tax cash flow: $3,240/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Escambia
• NCES district ID: 1200510
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,649
• Composite: 36.04/100
• National rank: #4773
• State rank: #56 of 73 in FL

Livability — West Pensacola

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #629
• US rank: #12275

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: West Pensacola, FL
• County: Escambia County
• City population: 6,152
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 34,549
• Household income: $62,486
• Rent vs Own: 39.7% rent · 60.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1359.0

Population outlook (Escambia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 334,637 people
• By 2030: 345,779 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 364,828 · +9.0%
• By 2050: 378,514 · +13.1%
• By 2075: 403,220 · +20.5%
• By 2100: 386,125 · +15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 18% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 4% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Escambia

• 2024 margin: R (+19.5) · D 39.7% · R 59.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.2pp no change · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -19.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.5 2020: R+15.1 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.86%
• Current HPI: 247.6085
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.85%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+11.6% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-13 Relisted — PARMLS
• 2025-11-13 Price Changed $223,000 PARMLS
• 2025-08-07 Contingent — PARMLS
• 2025-06-25 Listed $339,000 PARMLS
• 2024-04-14 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2024-01-20 Price Changed $238,000 PARMLS
• 2023-12-16 Listed $250,000 PARMLS
• 2022-05-23 Sold (Public Records) $250,000 Public Records
• 2022-05-12 Sold (MLS) $250,000 PARMLS
• 2022-04-26 Pending — PARMLS
• 2022-02-22 Contingent — PARMLS
• 2022-02-18 Listed $229,000 PARMLS
• 2021-11-18 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 2021-10-27 Sold (MLS) $60,000 PARMLS
• 2021-10-25 Pending — PARMLS
• 2021-10-13 Listed $92,500 PARMLS
• 2008-08-25 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2008-03-17 Listed $139,900 PARMLS
• 1992-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $54,500 Public Records
• 1984-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $38,000 Public Records
• 1975-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $199,850 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,778 · +8.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.