2852 58th St · Port Arthur, TX 77640

$129,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,420 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 106 Days on market

Built 1962 $91/sqft · at area comps Est $127k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.8/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• ARV discount +6.5/15.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

One of kind Fixer Upper! Original hard wood floors in the living, open kitchen with newer double oven, over-sized utility room with sink and tons of storage. New Roof and AC. Great School 2 blocks away. Very nice and quiet street. Includes adjacent vacant lot.

Key facts

• Hard wood floors
• Utility room
• Adjacent vacant lot

Tags

• HARD WOOD FLOORS
• OPEN KITCHEN
• DOUBLE OVEN
• UTILITY ROOM
• ADJACENT VACANT LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $370 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 5.0% in Port Arthur — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,014 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, crime F, amenities F.
• Port Arthur ISD (urban): math 15% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #796 of 826 in TX (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 148 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 343 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,209 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.39%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $127,034
• List price: $129,900
• Delta: 2.26%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $2,610
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.91×
• Total profit: $33,078
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77640

• Home prices YoY: -22.2%
• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$251 /mo · $3,008/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $370

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,332

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $443	-5% $406	+0% $370	+5% $333	+10% $296
Rent	-10% $227	-5% $298	+0% $370	+5% $441	+10% $512
Rate	-1.0pp $435	-0.5pp $403	base $370	+0.5pp $336	+1.0pp $302

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6101 Ray Ave Port Arthur, TX	3.0	2.0	1447	$1,800	$1.24	44d	1	1.15mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 106 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 105 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 104 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 103 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $129,900 Active 101 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 100 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $129,900 Active 98 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active 97 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,900 Active 96 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,900 Active 95 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,900 Active 91 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,900 Active 90 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,900 Active 89 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 88 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $129,900 Active 87 DOM
16. 2026-03-04
    listed $129,900 Active 260-char remark

    Show marketing remark (260 chars)

    One of kind Fixer Upper! Original hard wood floors in the living, open kitchen with newer double oven, over-sized utility room with sink and tons of storage. New Roof and AC. Great School 2 blocks away. Very nice and quiet street. Includes adjacent vacant lot.

17. 2019-11-05
    soldstatus
18. 2019-11-04
    soldstatus 292-char remark

    Show marketing remark (292 chars)

    Graceful cottage sits up high and dry 2 owner home. Never flooded per owner. Original hard wood floors in the living, open kitchen with newer double oven, over-sized utility room with sink and tons of storage. New School 2 blocks away. Very nice an quiet street. Includes adjacent vacant lot.

19. 2019-10-19
    listed $69,900 292-char remark

    Show marketing remark (292 chars)

    Graceful cottage sits up high and dry 2 owner home. Never flooded per owner. Original hard wood floors in the living, open kitchen with newer double oven, over-sized utility room with sink and tons of storage. New School 2 blocks away. Very nice an quiet street. Includes adjacent vacant lot.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,008 · $251/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,008 · $251/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 60% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$3,008
• − Insurance: −$1,447
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,728
• − Management: −$1,728
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable income: $2,634
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$632
• After-tax cash flow: $3,803/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Port Arthur ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835400
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $31,795
• Composite: 14.9/100
• National rank: #9373
• State rank: #796 of 826 in TX

Livability — Port Arthur

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1014
• US rank: #18061

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Port Arthur, TX
• City population: 38,358
• Population (ZIP): 17,480

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 259,015 people
• By 2030: 260,685 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 263,309 · +1.7%
• By 2050: 265,237 · +2.4%
• By 2075: 270,193 · +4.3%
• By 2100: 255,628 · -1.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 54% White 22% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.9) · D 45.1% · R 54.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.1pp toward R · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: -8.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.9 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+0.5 2012: D+1.6 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -47.78%
• Current HPI: 167.6359
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+85.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-04 Listed $129,900 BBOR
• 2019-11-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-11-04 Sold (MLS) — BBOR
• 2019-10-19 Listed $69,900 BBOR

Property tax history

+7.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,008 · -2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.