106 S Shawnee Ter · Louisville, KY 40212

$122,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,408 sqft · SingleFamily · 27 Days on market

Built 1927 3,968 sqft lot Est $197k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

SOLD AS-IS!! CASH BUYERS!! NEEDS REHAB!! GREAT AREA ON SHAWNEE TERRACE!!! DO THE COMPS!! LOT'S OF UPSIDE POTENTIAL!! SOLID BRICK HOME WITH BSMT. FRONT ENTRY GARAGE!! HAS UNFINISHED UPSTAIRS THAT COULD MAKE BEDROOM/BATH!! EASY TO SHOW!! BEEN RENTAL PROPERTY!!

Key facts

• 3,968 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1927

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the Shawnee subdivision
• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 1-car garage with front entry
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single-family bungalow; One story
• Construction: Brick construction; Shingle roof; Built in 1927
• Exterior features: Partial chain-link fencing; Cleared, level lot; Easement on the property

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen located on the first floor
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms, all on the first floor
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the first floor
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Six total rooms; Four closets; Basement with outside entry (unfinished)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room in the basement (first-floor laundry not present)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $122k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $280 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $122k).
• Recommended offer: $120k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 5.0% in Louisville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#333 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D+, schools D-.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 140 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($843 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.5% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($120k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $122k implies a 206% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1927 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $120,170 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1927 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.83%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $197,456
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
118 S 42nd St	0.23mi	3/1.5	2,323 (-4%)	21mo	$144,900	$62	64
111 S 40th St	0.44mi	3/2.5	2,458 (+2%)	8mo	$184,500	$75	63
318 Glendora Ave	0.32mi	3/3.0	2,536 (+5%)	16mo	$220,000	$87	55
4557 Southwestern Pkwy	0.38mi	3/1.0	2,051 (-15%)	4mo	$145,000	$71	55
304 Shawnee Dr	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,296 (-5%)	22mo	$170,000	$74	53
240 S 42nd St	0.30mi	4/1.0 (+1)	2,136 (-11%)	15mo	$185,000	$87	50
321 S 41st St	0.49mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,440 (+1%)	20mo	$190,000	$78	49
123 S 39th St	0.52mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,159 (-10%)	6mo	$215,000	$100	42
3940 Northwestern Pkwy	0.70mi	3/3.0	2,256 (-6%)	17mo	$195,000	$86	35
4334 Vermont Ave	0.58mi	3/2.5	2,704 (+12%)	18mo	$208,000	$77	31
4007 Vermont Ave	0.66mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,052 (-15%)	4mo	$197,500	$96	30
4002 Northwestern Pkwy	0.69mi	3/1.0	2,048 (-15%)	18mo	$168,000	$82	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.37×
• Total profit: $81,022
• Equity at exit: $109,907

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.7%
• Equity multiple: 7.40×
• Total profit: $218,623
• Equity at exit: $237,019

Cash invested: $34,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40212

• Home prices YoY: 11.0%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 140
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,317 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$640
• Tax from tax record: −$70 /mo · $839/yr
• Insurance: −$51
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$277
• Net cashflow: $280

Break-even live

Break-even rent $963

Max offer price $122,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $349	-5% $314	+0% $280	+5% $245	+10% $211
Rent	-10% $176	-5% $228	+0% $280	+5% $332	+10% $384
Rate	-1.0pp $341	-0.5pp $311	base $280	+0.5pp $248	+1.0pp $216

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,500
• Closing costs: $3,660
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3922 River Park Dr Louisville, KY	2.0	2.0	1800	$1,195	$0.66	12d	1	0.78mi
663 S 43rd St Louisville, KY	2.0	2.0	1736	$1,250	$0.72	24d	1	0.93mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $122,000 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $122,000 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $122,000 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $122,000 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $122,000 Active 22 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $125,000 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $125,000 Active 16 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 10 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 9 DOM
14. 2026-05-22
    listed $125,000 Active
15. 2021-03-29
    status Active
16. 2021-03-29
    historical
17. 2021-03-16
    status Pending
18. 2020-12-28
    price $78,000
19. 2020-12-28
    listed $89,500 Active
20. 2020-12-28
    price $89,500
21. 2019-09-03
    soldstatus $39,900 Closed 259-char remark

    Show marketing remark (259 chars)

    SOLD AS-IS!! CASH BUYERS!! NEEDS REHAB!! GREAT AREA ON SHAWNEE TERRACE!!! DO THE COMPS!! LOT'S OF UPSIDE POTENTIAL!! SOLID BRICK HOME WITH BSMT. FRONT ENTRY GARAGE!! HAS UNFINISHED UPSTAIRS THAT COULD MAKE BEDROOM/BATH!! EASY TO SHOW!! BEEN RENTAL PROPERTY!!

22. 2019-08-18
    status Pending 259-char remark

    Show marketing remark (259 chars)

    SOLD AS-IS!! CASH BUYERS!! NEEDS REHAB!! GREAT AREA ON SHAWNEE TERRACE!!! DO THE COMPS!! LOT'S OF UPSIDE POTENTIAL!! SOLID BRICK HOME WITH BSMT. FRONT ENTRY GARAGE!! HAS UNFINISHED UPSTAIRS THAT COULD MAKE BEDROOM/BATH!! EASY TO SHOW!! BEEN RENTAL PROPERTY!!

23. 2019-08-16
    listed $41,900 Active 259-char remark

    Show marketing remark (259 chars)

    SOLD AS-IS!! CASH BUYERS!! NEEDS REHAB!! GREAT AREA ON SHAWNEE TERRACE!!! DO THE COMPS!! LOT'S OF UPSIDE POTENTIAL!! SOLID BRICK HOME WITH BSMT. FRONT ENTRY GARAGE!! HAS UNFINISHED UPSTAIRS THAT COULD MAKE BEDROOM/BATH!! EASY TO SHOW!! BEEN RENTAL PROPERTY!!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $839 · $70/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,049 · $87/mo
• Expected delta: +$210/yr (+$18/mo · 25.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,804
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,834
• − Property taxes: −$839
• − Insurance: −$610
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,264
• − Management: −$1,264
• − Depreciation: −$3,549
• Taxable income: $1,443
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$346
• After-tax cash flow: $3,012/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 2102990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,885
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7884
• State rank: #121 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisville

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #333
• US rank: #15887

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Louisville, KY
• County: Jefferson County · 790,184 people
• City population: 769,292
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 14,661
• Household income: $35,753
• Rent vs Own: 51.3% rent · 48.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1148.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 823,112 people
• By 2030: 849,343 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 895,696 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 933,630 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 1,028,262 · +24.9%
• By 2100: 1,072,675 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 60% White 37% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.4% · R 40.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+20.1 2016: D+13.3 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.02%
• Current HPI: 293.2624
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.51%
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+198.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $125,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2021-03-29 Relisted — Metro Search MLS
• 2021-03-29 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2021-03-16 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2020-12-28 Price Changed $89,500 Metro Search MLS
• 2020-12-28 Listed $89,500 Metro Search MLS
• 2020-12-28 Price Changed $78,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2019-09-03 Sold (MLS) $39,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2019-08-18 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2019-08-16 Listed $41,900 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $839 · -1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.