712 W Main St · Carlinville, IL 62626

$125,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,808 sqft · SingleFamily · 163 Days on market

Built 1948 0.33 ac lot $69/sqft · at area comps Est $120k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.1/30.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• ARV discount +5.4/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Affordable opportunity in the heart of Carlinville! Welcome to 712 W Main St, conveniently located near downtown, shopping, dining, and local amenities. This home features renovated laminate hardwood flooring that adds a modern, clean look and enhances the living spaces with durability and easy maintenance. The backyard directly faces a city park, offering a peaceful setting with green space just steps away... perfect for relaxation, recreation, or enjoying outdoor views. With a functional layout and strong potential, this property is move in ready for homeowners or investors seeking their next rental or renovation project. Priced to sell, don't miss your chance to own or invest in this well-located property.

Key facts

• Functional layout
• Move in ready
• 0.33 acre lot

Tags

• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• MOVE IN READY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $277 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#477 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: employment D, schools D-, crime F.
• Carlinville CUSD 1 (town): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #168 of 620 in IL (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP; 70 units permitted in Macoupin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Macoupin County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 163 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $42k; list at $125k implies a 201% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $110,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 163 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.49%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $119,500
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: 4.60%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
329 S Plum St	0.39mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,807 (-0%)	12mo	$145,000	$80	67
503 Harrington St	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,652 (-9%)	12mo	$131,900	$80	64
307 N East St	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,728 (-4%)	4mo	$187,185	$108	61
425 S West St	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,722 (-5%)	12mo	$104,500	$61	55
334 E Hoehn St	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,756 (-3%)	9mo	$198,000	$113	53
428 W 2nd South St	0.23mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,624 (-10%)	23mo	$144,100	$89	48
818 W Main St	0.15mi	3/1.5	1,552 (-14%)	23mo	$135,000	$87	48
503 S West St	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,549 (-14%)	8mo	$159,000	$103	46
626 Harrington St	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,600 (-12%)	22mo	$185,000	$116	46
1210 Miller Ln	0.66mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,700 (-6%)	13mo	$368,000	$216	41
415 E 1st South St	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (-12%)	14mo	$154,900	$97	30
409 E 2nd South St	0.75mi	3/1.0	1,568 (-13%)	15mo	$115,000	$73	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-2,652
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.58×
• Total profit: $20,292
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62626

• Home prices YoY: -14.8%
• Active inventory: 38
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,353 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$84 /mo · $1,012/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $277

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,002

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $348	-5% $312	+0% $277	+5% $241	+10% $206
Rent	-10% $170	-5% $223	+0% $277	+5% $330	+10% $384
Rate	-1.0pp $340	-0.5pp $309	base $277	+0.5pp $244	+1.0pp $211

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $125,000 Active 163 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 161 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 160 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 159 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 158 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 156 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $125,000 Active 155 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 152 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 151 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 150 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 149 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $125,000 Active 146 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 145 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 144 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 143 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 142 DOM
17. 2026-01-08
    listed $125,000 Active 718-char remark

    Show marketing remark (718 chars)

    Affordable opportunity in the heart of Carlinville! Welcome to 712 W Main St, conveniently located near downtown, shopping, dining, and local amenities. This home features renovated laminate hardwood flooring that adds a modern, clean look and enhances the living spaces with durability and easy maintenance. The backyard directly faces a city park, offering a peaceful setting with green space just steps away... perfect for relaxation, recreation, or enjoying outdoor views. With a functional layout and strong potential, this property is move in ready for homeowners or investors seeking their next rental or renovation project. Priced to sell, don't miss your chance to own or invest in this well-located property.

18. 2021-08-06
    historical
19. 2015-08-01
    soldstatus $41,500
20. 2007-07-10
    soldstatus $32,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,012 · $84/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,925 · $160/mo
• Expected delta: +$913/yr (+$76/mo · 90.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,234
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,012
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,299
• − Management: −$1,299
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $1,361
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$327
• After-tax cash flow: $2,995/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carlinville CUSD 1
• NCES district ID: 1708430
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $53,617
• Composite: 31.91/100
• National rank: #5854
• State rank: #168 of 620 in IL

Livability — Carlinville

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #477
• US rank: #9883

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carlinville, IL
• City population: 7,911
• Population (ZIP): 7,911

Population outlook (Macoupin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,867 people
• By 2030: 40,796 · -4.8%
• By 2040: 36,135 · -15.7%
• By 2050: 31,469 · -26.6%
• By 2075: 22,102 · -48.4%
• By 2100: 15,380 · -64.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Italian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Macoupin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.2) · D 29.4% · R 68.7% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -49.0pp toward R · 2008: 9.8pp · 2024: -39.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.2 2020: R+36.5 2016: R+35.0 2012: R+7.0 2008: D+9.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.39%
• Current HPI: 180.5544
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+290.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-08 Listed $125,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-06 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $41,500 Public Records
• 2007-07-10 Sold (Public Records) $32,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,012 · +7.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.