16454 Winchester Ave · Markham, IL 60428

$180,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,050 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1958 Est $146k · 23% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.1/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.7/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Complete Remodel on this true ranch 3-bedroom home - with numerous BRAND-NEW features such as: roof (garage & house), gutters, R49 attic insulation, furnace, water heater, hardwood flooring, doors, low-E argon windows, light fixtures, fresh paint throughout, integrated smoke/carbon monoxide detector, plumbing and plumbing fixtures, and electrical throughout including electrical panel and riser from the meter. * The fully remodeled kitchen shines with NEW white cabinetry with gold hardware, NEW stainless steel appliances, NEW ceramic tile floor, NEW granite countertop, ceramic backsplash, with NEW recessed lighting. * The living room boasts windows in two directions for a nice cross breeze and natural light, NEW recessed lighting, and dark wood luxury vinyl flooring. * The large bedrooms are wall-to-wall hardwood, and a BRAND-NEW bathroom with a built-in shelf in the combination tub/shower and gray-tone ceramic tile. * Terrific location close to the Calumet Country Club, the Amazon warehouse, and Expressways (294/80). * With 1050 ft2 of finished living space, a long driveway with a 1.5 car garage, and a private/fenced yard, this down-to-the new drywall rehab is offered at a phenomenal value.

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 1958

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Fee simple ownership; Estimated living area
• HOA & community: No master association fee required

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (1 garage space; 1 total parking space)
• Utilities: Water source: Lake Michigan; Public sewer
• Home design: Detached single-family home; One-story
• Construction: Vinyl siding and brick exterior; Rehab completed in 2023; Built approximately 61–70 years ago; Built before 1978
• Exterior features: Lot between 0.25 and 0.49 acre; Property faces in a direction not specified; School bus service

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on main level (16 x 9)
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on main level (Master: 14 x 10; Bedroom: 13 x 10; Bedroom: 10 x 9)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Five total rooms; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Main level laundry (5 x 5)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $396 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#186 in IL, #3,539 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities D, employment D.
• Thornton Twp Hsd 205 (suburban): math 7% / reading 8% proficiency, ranked #594 of 620 in IL (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,272 units permitted in Cook County in 2024 (4,658 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 11 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $180,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.43%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $145,950
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16444 Wolcott Ave	0.06mi	3/1.5	1,080 (+3%)	3mo	$112,500	$104	88
16300 Winchester Ave	0.21mi	3/1.0	1,012 (-4%)	2mo	$97,500	$96	83
16221 Hermitage Ave	0.42mi	3/1.5	1,044 (-1%)	1mo	$192,000	$184	77
16738 Crane Ave	0.50mi	3/1.0	1,059 (+1%)	2mo	$147,000	$139	74
16784 Crane Ave	0.54mi	3/1.0	1,059 (+1%)	2mo	$155,000	$146	72
16628 Winchester Ave	0.21mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,134 (+8%)	1mo	$84,000	$74	71
16807 Wood St	0.46mi	3/1.0	985 (-6%)	0mo	$90,000	$91	68
16784 Trapet Ave	0.46mi	3/1.0	970 (-8%)	1mo	$96,000	$99	65
16735 Dixie Hwy	0.37mi	2/1.0 (-1)	965 (-8%)	1mo	$153,000	$159	64
16727 Head Ave	0.43mi	3/1.5	1,150 (+10%)	1mo	$157,000	$137	62
16207 Justine St	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,100 (+5%)	3mo	$215,000	$195	52
16876 Head Ave	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,147 (+9%)	1mo	$185,000	$161	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.45×
• Total profit: $123,417
• Equity at exit: $162,158

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.82×
• Total profit: $343,907
• Equity at exit: $349,700

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 60428

• Home prices YoY: 8.5%
• Active inventory: 65
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,320 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$418 /mo · $5,012/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$487
• Net cashflow: $396

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,818

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16751 Crane Ave Hazel Crest, IL	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,800	$1.50	1d	1	0.47mi
16125 Marshfield Ave Markham, IL	3.0	1.0	1043	$2,400	$2.30	1d	1	0.62mi
16752 Artesian Ave Hazel Crest, IL	3.0	1.0	867	$2,500	$2.88	1d	1	0.68mi
16901 Orchard Ridge Ave Hazel Crest, IL	4.0	2.0	1406	$2,700	$1.92	1d	1	0.69mi
2308 170th St Hazel Crest, IL	3.0	2.0	1020	$2,400	$2.35	1d	1	0.75mi
2107 171st St Unit 2107 Hazel Crest, IL	3.0	1.5	1158	$2,300	$1.99	1d	1	0.80mi
2173 171st St Hazel Crest, IL	3.0	1.5	1159	$2,350	$2.03	1d	1	0.82mi
17561 Hillside Ave Homewood, IL	3.0	1.0	1174	$2,300	$1.96	1d	1	1.42mi
17561 Hillside Ave Homewood, IL	3.0	1.0	1174	$2,500	$2.13	16d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-06-18
   listed $180,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,012 · $418/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,012 · $418/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,839
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$5,012
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,227
• − Management: −$2,227
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable income: $2,154
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$517
• After-tax cash flow: $4,237/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Thornton Twp Hsd 205
• NCES district ID: 1738970
• Math proficiency: 7% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 8% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,392
• Composite: 6.92/100
• National rank: #9976
• State rank: #594 of 620 in IL

Livability — Markham

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #186
• US rank: #3539

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Markham, IL
• City population: 10,980
• Population (ZIP): 10,980

Population outlook (Cook County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,347,519 people
• By 2030: 5,357,703 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 5,324,924 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 5,230,762 · -2.2%
• By 2075: 4,785,735 · -10.5%
• By 2100: 4,188,836 · -21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 69% Hispanic / Latino 17% White 11% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 14%

Political lean MEDSL · Cook

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+42.0) · D 70.4% · R 28.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.4pp toward R · 2008: 53.4pp · 2024: 42.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+42.0 2020: D+50.3 2016: D+53.0 2012: D+49.4 2008: D+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 23.63%
• Current HPI: 302.333
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+373.7% since first listed

29 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $180,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-07-25 Sold (Public Records) $170,000 Public Records
• 2023-06-26 Sold (MLS) $169,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-11 Contingent — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-06 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-06 Price Changed $169,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-05 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-05 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-04 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-04 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-01 Contingent — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-18 Listed $174,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-02-06 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-02-06 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-11-04 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-08-27 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-08-27 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-04-30 Contingent — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-04-19 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-04-02 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-02-05 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-12-01 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-10-26 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-07-13 Sold (MLS) $6,500 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-04-18 Price Changed $8,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-04-13 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-04-04 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-03-24 Listed $19,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1981-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $38,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2023): $5,012 · +6.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.