102 Chestnut St · Hillsboro, TX 76645

$155,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,580 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 362 Days on market

6,055 sqft lot $98/sqft · 26% below area Est $208k · 26% under ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.2/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Affordable historical classic style home located close to downtown Hillsboro! Tall ceilings with a traditional entry way foyer embodies the characteristics of this home's era. Updated kitchen with newer cabinets and appliances is simple and inviting with room for eat in dining. Exterior has classic contrasting colors with a fresh coat of paint along with a privacy fence. Updated in 2023 flooring, roof, HVAC, water heater, and blown attic insulation. Come join the growth in Hillsboro centrally located between Waco and DFW!

Key facts

• Privacy fence
• Updated water heater
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• PRIVACY FENCE
• UPDATED FLOORING
• UPDATED ROOF
• UPDATED HVAC
• UPDATED WATER HEATER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $530 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 3.7% in Hillsboro — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#803 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Hillsboro ISD (town): math 46% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #370 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 156 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 65 units permitted in Hill County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hill County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 362 days — a 12% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 362 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.64%
• DSCR: 1.65
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $208,246
• List price: $155,000
• Delta: -25.57%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
205 N Waco St	0.40mi	3/1.0	1,588 (+0%)	5mo	$49,900	$31	73
206 Hall St	0.41mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,587 (+0%)	13mo	$249,900	$157	64
119 Smith St	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,487 (-6%)	2mo	$270,000	$182	61
222 3rd St	0.54mi	3/2.5	1,608 (+2%)	12mo	$262,000	$163	60
220 3rd St	0.52mi	3/2.5	1,608 (+2%)	13mo	$249,900	$155	60
406 Abernathy St	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,770 (+12%)	5mo	$277,000	$156	53
115 Vineyard Ave	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-8%)	10mo	$170,000	$117	50
518 W Elm St	0.32mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,376 (-13%)	11mo	$72,000	$52	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $8,732
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.19×
• Total profit: $51,515
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76645

• Home prices YoY: -33.5%
• Active inventory: 156
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$331 /mo · $3,972/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $530

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,530

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
216 Brazos St Hillsboro, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$2,200	$1.74	43d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,000 Active 362 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,000 Active 361 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,000 Active 360 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,000 Active 359 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $155,000 Active 357 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $155,000 Active 356 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $155,000 Active 353 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $155,000 Active 352 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $155,000 Active 351 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $155,000 Active 350 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $155,000 Active 347 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $155,000 Active 346 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $155,000 Active 345 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,000 Active 344 DOM
15. 2026-02-26
    price $155,000 527-char remark

    Show marketing remark (527 chars)

    Affordable historical classic style home located close to downtown Hillsboro! Tall ceilings with a traditional entry way foyer embodies the characteristics of this home's era. Updated kitchen with newer cabinets and appliances is simple and inviting with room for eat in dining. Exterior has classic contrasting colors with a fresh coat of paint along with a privacy fence. Updated in 2023 flooring, roof, HVAC, water heater, and blown attic insulation. Come join the growth in Hillsboro centrally located between Waco and DFW!

16. 2025-12-19
    price $139,000 527-char remark

    Show marketing remark (527 chars)

    Affordable historical classic style home located close to downtown Hillsboro! Tall ceilings with a traditional entry way foyer embodies the characteristics of this home's era. Updated kitchen with newer cabinets and appliances is simple and inviting with room for eat in dining. Exterior has classic contrasting colors with a fresh coat of paint along with a privacy fence. Updated in 2023 flooring, roof, HVAC, water heater, and blown attic insulation. Come join the growth in Hillsboro centrally located between Waco and DFW!

17. 2025-08-02
    price $150,000 527-char remark

    Show marketing remark (527 chars)

    Affordable historical classic style home located close to downtown Hillsboro! Tall ceilings with a traditional entry way foyer embodies the characteristics of this home's era. Updated kitchen with newer cabinets and appliances is simple and inviting with room for eat in dining. Exterior has classic contrasting colors with a fresh coat of paint along with a privacy fence. Updated in 2023 flooring, roof, HVAC, water heater, and blown attic insulation. Come join the growth in Hillsboro centrally located between Waco and DFW!

18. 2025-06-21
    listed $170,000 Active 527-char remark

    Show marketing remark (527 chars)

    Affordable historical classic style home located close to downtown Hillsboro! Tall ceilings with a traditional entry way foyer embodies the characteristics of this home's era. Updated kitchen with newer cabinets and appliances is simple and inviting with room for eat in dining. Exterior has classic contrasting colors with a fresh coat of paint along with a privacy fence. Updated in 2023 flooring, roof, HVAC, water heater, and blown attic insulation. Come join the growth in Hillsboro centrally located between Waco and DFW!

19. 2023-03-20
    soldstatus Closed 630-char remark

    Show marketing remark (630 chars)

    Affordable historical classic style home located close to downtown Hillsboro! Tall ceilings with a traditional entry way foyer embodies the characteristics of this home's era. Updated kitchen with new cabinets and appliances is simple and inviting with room for eat in dining. Exterior has classic contrasting colors with a fresh coat of paint. Most of the major work has been done such as new flooring, roof, electrical, plumbing, HVAC, water heater, and blown attic insulation. Seller will consider installing a privacy fence with acceptable offer. Come join the growth in Hillsboro centrally located between Waco and DFW!

20. 2023-03-20
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (630 chars)

    Affordable historical classic style home located close to downtown Hillsboro! Tall ceilings with a traditional entry way foyer embodies the characteristics of this home's era. Updated kitchen with new cabinets and appliances is simple and inviting with room for eat in dining. Exterior has classic contrasting colors with a fresh coat of paint. Most of the major work has been done such as new flooring, roof, electrical, plumbing, HVAC, water heater, and blown attic insulation. Seller will consider installing a privacy fence with acceptable offer. Come join the growth in Hillsboro centrally located between Waco and DFW!

21. 2023-03-14
    soldstatus
22. 2023-02-07
    historical Active Option Contract 630-char remark

    Show marketing remark (630 chars)

    Affordable historical classic style home located close to downtown Hillsboro! Tall ceilings with a traditional entry way foyer embodies the characteristics of this home's era. Updated kitchen with new cabinets and appliances is simple and inviting with room for eat in dining. Exterior has classic contrasting colors with a fresh coat of paint. Most of the major work has been done such as new flooring, roof, electrical, plumbing, HVAC, water heater, and blown attic insulation. Seller will consider installing a privacy fence with acceptable offer. Come join the growth in Hillsboro centrally located between Waco and DFW!

23. 2023-01-31
    listed $147,000
24. 2023-01-29
    price $147,000 630-char remark

    Show marketing remark (630 chars)

    Affordable historical classic style home located close to downtown Hillsboro! Tall ceilings with a traditional entry way foyer embodies the characteristics of this home's era. Updated kitchen with new cabinets and appliances is simple and inviting with room for eat in dining. Exterior has classic contrasting colors with a fresh coat of paint. Most of the major work has been done such as new flooring, roof, electrical, plumbing, HVAC, water heater, and blown attic insulation. Seller will consider installing a privacy fence with acceptable offer. Come join the growth in Hillsboro centrally located between Waco and DFW!

25. 2023-01-28
    listed $159,900 Active 630-char remark

    Show marketing remark (630 chars)

    Affordable historical classic style home located close to downtown Hillsboro! Tall ceilings with a traditional entry way foyer embodies the characteristics of this home's era. Updated kitchen with new cabinets and appliances is simple and inviting with room for eat in dining. Exterior has classic contrasting colors with a fresh coat of paint. Most of the major work has been done such as new flooring, roof, electrical, plumbing, HVAC, water heater, and blown attic insulation. Seller will consider installing a privacy fence with acceptable offer. Come join the growth in Hillsboro centrally located between Waco and DFW!

26. 2022-07-12
    soldstatus
27. 2001-12-12
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,972 · $331/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,972 · $331/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$3,972
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,112
• − Management: −$2,112
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable income: $4,238
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,017
• After-tax cash flow: $5,338/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsboro ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823280
• Math proficiency: 46% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $34,483
• Composite: 35.12/100
• National rank: #5016
• State rank: #370 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hillsboro

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #803
• US rank: #14657

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hillsboro, TX
• City population: 11,321
• Population (ZIP): 11,321

Population outlook (Hill County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 34,013 people
• By 2030: 33,289 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 31,688 · -6.8%
• By 2050: 30,100 · -11.5%
• By 2075: 26,818 · -21.2%
• By 2100: 22,918 · -32.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 34% Black 10% Two or more races 8% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 26%

Political lean MEDSL · Hill

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.4) · D 17.5% · R 81.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.0pp toward R · 2008: -41.4pp · 2024: -64.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.4 2020: R+60.7 2016: R+58.4 2012: R+53.0 2008: R+41.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.83%
• Current HPI: 248.3182
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.1% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $155,000 NTREIS
• 2025-12-19 Price Changed $139,000 NTREIS
• 2025-08-02 Price Changed $150,000 NTREIS
• 2025-06-21 Listed $170,000 NTREIS
• 2023-03-20 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2023-03-20 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2023-03-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-02-07 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2023-01-31 Listed $147,000 NTREIS
• 2023-01-29 Price Changed $147,000 NTREIS
• 2023-01-28 Listed $159,900 NTREIS
• 2022-07-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-12-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+20.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,972 · +13.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.