2062 W Arizona Highway 277 · Heber-Overgaard, AZ 85928

$139,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · Manufactured public records · 35 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1985 Est $157k · 12% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.1/30.0
• ARV discount +12.7/15.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Appreciation +5.4/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

. Manufactured home 14x60=840 sgft. needs complete remodel inside and out but is livable , everything works except hot water heater. Range, water heater and furnace are propane. Roof in good condition , stains on ceiling are from previous shingles , no roof leaks. Everything in home is included. Work Shop 14x40=560 sqft. needs exterior paint but is in decent condition , roof in good condition. Interior is in great condition and is a complete wood shop. All tools and misc. and 12x12 shed are included. No Hoa , no lot rent , .27 acres of commercial land and all structures, tools, and furniture are owned and included in price.

Key facts

• Complete remodel
• Commercial land
• Manufactured home

Tags

• MANUFACTURED HOME
• WORK SHOP
• COMMERCIAL LAND
• COMPLETE REMODEL
• NO HOA
• ALL STRUCTURES INCLUDED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Built in 1985
• Construction: 1,840 square feet of living area
• Exterior features: Located in the Heber subdivision

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $351 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $139k).
• Recommended offer: $135k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 3.2% in Heber-Overgaard — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Heber-Overgaard Unified District (4392) (rural): math 52% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #51 of 249 in AZ (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mountain Meadows Primary (math 70% / reading 50%, grade B-, #148 of 1,109 statewide, top 15%, 143 students, 43% FRL); Mogollon Jr High School (math 42% / reading 32%, grade F, #57 of 218 statewide, top 27%, 77 students, 0% FRL); Mogollon High School (math 30% / reading 30%, grade F, #116 of 381 statewide, top 31%, 167 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools average 25% FRL vs 50% district-wide (25 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 157 active listings in the ZIP; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($961 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.9% local appreciation)).
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (0.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($135k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $139k implies a 672% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $134,830 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.83%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $157,080
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2070 Pinewood Dr	0.21mi	2/2.0	840 (0%)	9mo	$186,000	$221	79
3504 Rae Cir	0.42mi	2/1.0	785 (-6%)	3mo	$148,000	$189	67
3490 Black Bear Run	0.13mi	2/1.0	960 (+14%)	5mo	$141,000	$147	66
3622 Red Wing Loop	0.55mi	2/2.0	840 (0%)	10mo	$165,000	$196	62
3305 Forest Dr	0.37mi	2/1.0	900 (+7%)	13mo	$112,500	$125	60
2065 Pine Lake Dr	0.31mi	2/1.0	721 (-14%)	17mo	$134,900	$187	48
2065 Pine Lake Dr	0.31mi	2/1.0	720 (-14%)	17mo	$134,900	$187	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.86% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.61×
• Total profit: $23,935
• Equity at exit: $46,422

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.91×
• Total profit: $74,297
• Equity at exit: $60,902

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85928

• Home prices YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 157
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,479 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$30 /mo · $363/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$311
• Net cashflow: $351

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,034

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $430	-5% $391	+0% $351	+5% $312	+10% $273
Rent	-10% $234	-5% $293	+0% $351	+5% $410	+10% $468
Rate	-1.0pp $421	-0.5pp $387	base $351	+0.5pp $315	+1.0pp $279

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $139,000 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $139,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $139,000 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,000 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,000 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-17
   price $139,000 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,000 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,000 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-14
   days on market $149,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-12
    days on market $149,000 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $149,000 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $149,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,000 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-06-04
    days on market $149,000 Active 16 DOM
16. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,000 Active 15 DOM
17. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,000 Active 14 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,000 Active 13 DOM
19. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,000 Active 12 DOM
20. 2026-05-19
    listed $149,000 Active
21. 1996-10-08
    soldstatus $18,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $363 · $30/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $917 · $76/mo
• Expected delta: +$554/yr (+$46/mo · 152.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,747
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$363
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,420
• − Management: −$1,420
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable income: $2,019
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$485
• After-tax cash flow: $3,730/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Heber-Overgaard Unified District (4392)
• NCES district ID: 0400026
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $37,916
• Composite: 40.42/100
• National rank: #3727
• State rank: #51 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Heber-Overgaard

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Heber-Overgaard, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 376

Population outlook (Navajo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,760 people
• By 2030: 103,301 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 97,070 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 88,850 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 65,180 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 37,281 · -64.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 6% Slovak 6% Lithuanian 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Navajo

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.9% · R 58.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.9 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.86%
• Current HPI: 443.6984
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+672.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $139,000 FSBO.com
• 2026-05-19 Listed $149,000 FSBO.com
• 1996-10-08 Sold (Public Records) $18,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $363 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.