40 Johnson St · Lackawanna, NY 14218

$179,900

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,740 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1857 4,800 sqft lot Est $171k · 6% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.1/30.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• ARV discount +5.0/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Fantastic Investment Opportunity or Owner-Occupant Gem! Welcome to 40 Johnson Street, a beautifully maintained and substantially updated 2-unit multi-family home located in a highly convenient and walkable Lackawanna neighborhood. Perfect for an investor looking to add a turn-key property to their portfolio, or an owner-occupant looking to live in one unit while letting the other pay the mortgage. The upper unit features 2 bedrooms and a brand-new, modern kitchen, new cabinets with butcher block counters, fully equipped with sleek stainless steel appliances and a brand-new independent heating unit. The spacious lower unit offers 3 bedrooms, an updated bathroom, and includes all kitchen appl

Key facts

• Private backyard
• Updated kitchen
• Off-street parking

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• INDEPENDENT HEATING UNIT
• MAJOR MECHANICAL UPGRADES
• OFF-STREET PARKING
• DETACHED GARAGE
• PRIVATE BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Two total units with separate gas and electric meters; Operating expense details: see remarks
• Financial info: Owner pays water (rental-related); Rent includes water

Exterior

• Parking: Garage with two spaces; Two or more parking spaces
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: 2-story property; Existing construction
• Construction: Fiber cement siding; Copper plumbing; Asphalt shingle roof; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Partial fencing; Private yard; Fence; Near public transit; Rectangular residential lot; City street frontage

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Tile; Vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Gas heating; Baseboard heating; Wall furnace
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Carpet, hardwood, tile, vinyl and varied flooring throughout
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $456 ($5k/yr) — positive. Per door: $228/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 5.4% in Lackawanna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#254 in NY, #4,026 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, employment D+.
• Lackawanna City School District (suburban): math 19% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #588 of 590 in NY (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $180k implies a 276% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1857 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $179,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1857 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.86%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $170,520
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1817 Electric Ave	0.22mi	6/2.0 (+1)	1,955 (+12%)	8mo	$267,000	$137	58
188 Milnor Ave	0.10mi	4/3.0 (-1)	1,990 (+14%)	9mo	$195,000	$98	55
11 Fig Ave	0.65mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,960 (+13%)	2mo	$115,000	$59	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $-111
• Equity at exit: $26,824

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.74×
• Total profit: $37,322
• Equity at exit: $15,554

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14218

• Home prices YoY: -9.2%
• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 14.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,103 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$187 /mo · $2,246/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$442
• Net cashflow: $456

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,526

Max offer price $179,900

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $558	-5% $507	+0% $456	+5% $405	+10% $354
Rent	-10% $290	-5% $373	+0% $456	+5% $539	+10% $622
Rate	-1.0pp $546	-0.5pp $502	base $456	+0.5pp $409	+1.0pp $362

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$2,102
Total (2 units)			$2,103

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-20
   listed $179,900 Active
3. 1998-06-30
   soldstatus $47,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,246 · $187/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,643 · $220/mo
• Expected delta: +$397/yr (+$33/mo · 17.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,236
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$2,246
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,019
• − Management: −$2,019
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable income: $2,742
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$658
• After-tax cash flow: $4,812/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lackawanna City School District
• NCES district ID: 3616440
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,041
• Composite: 19.76/100
• National rank: #8708
• State rank: #588 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lackawanna

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #254
• US rank: #4026

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lackawanna, NY
• City population: 20,661
• Population (ZIP): 20,661

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 18% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Arabic 11% Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -39.44%
• Current HPI: 389.0188
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+275.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-05-20 Listed $179,900 WNYREIS
• 1998-06-30 Sold (Public Records) $47,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,246 · +16.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.