24277 NW Geranium Ave · Rainbow Lakes Estates, FL 34431

$204,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,058 sqft · SingleFamily · 119 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 10,454 sqft lot $194/sqft · at area comps Est $214k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.2/30.0
• ARV discount +9.4/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Under Construction. Welcome to this brand-new “Aleida” model by Bakan Homes, scheduled for completion September 18th, 2026. This With 1,058 square feet of living space, this charming wood-frame home is designed to offer modern comforts at an accessible price point. Step inside to discover an open concept living area featuring waterproof vinyl plank flooring in the social spaces and plush carpet in the bedrooms. The stylish L-shaped kitchen is equipped with sleek formica countertops and stainless-steel appliances including a dishwasher. Enjoy the contemporary touch of LED pendant lighting in the dining area, adding a touch of elegance to the space. Located in a growing community, this home offers the perfect combination of affordability, modern finishes, and convenience. Don’t miss the opportunity to own this new construction home in Ocala—perfect for first-time buyers or those looking to downsize. Your investment is protected by a limited Builder Warranty that expires 1 year after the issuance of the Certificate of Occupancy. Pictures are of a recently completed model. Colors, finishes, and appliances may vary from home to home. Estimated completion dates are only an estimate and can be delayed due to unforeseen circumstances.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• L-shaped kitchen
• Led pendant lighting

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• PLUSH CARPET IN BEDROOMS
• L-SHAPED KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS-STEEL APPLIANCES
• LED PENDANT LIGHTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $205k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-116 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $188k (8.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (19.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $165k (19.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.3% in Rainbow Lakes Estates — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Romeo Elementary School (math 51% / reading 41%, grade D-, #1,234 of 2,144 statewide, top 58%, 707 students, 76% FRL); Dunnellon Middle School (math 48% / reading 42%, grade D, #310 of 571 statewide, top 56%, 678 students, 68% FRL); Dunnellon High School (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #429 of 667 statewide, top 65%, 1,350 students, 63% FRL).
• Market conditions: 694 active listings in the ZIP; 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,708 (19.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.41%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $214,046
• List price: $204,999
• Delta: -4.23%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
24202 NW Aspen Ln	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,099 (+4%)	0mo	$218,500	$199	85
24146 NW Foxglove Ln	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,003 (-5%)	2mo	$200,000	$199	83
24477 NW Geranium Ave	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,003 (-5%)	2mo	$209,995	$209	81
24162 NW Hemlock Ave	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,003 (-5%)	3mo	$200,000	$199	79
24172 NW Aspen Ln	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,003 (-5%)	5mo	$199,995	$199	78
24223 NW Water Oak Ave	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,003 (-5%)	9mo	$196,000	$195	77
24370 NW Falcon Ave	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,013 (-4%)	5mo	$218,000	$215	77
24134 NW Tamarind Ln	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,003 (-5%)	3mo	$207,000	$206	76
24449 NW Falcon Ave	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,003 (-5%)	8mo	$202,800	$202	70
23995 NW Falcon Ave	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,003 (-5%)	10mo	$199,995	$199	69
24482 NW Hemlock Ave	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,177 (+11%)	10mo	$220,000	$187	64
316 NW Narcissus Rd	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,003 (-5%)	12mo	$207,500	$207	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-40,551
• Equity at exit: $30,566

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-44,683
• Equity at exit: $17,725

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 15 active · 7 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.0 mo (20%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $217,900 ($195/sqft)
• Median days on market: 71 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +3.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34431

• Home prices YoY: -3.2%
• Active inventory: 694
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,647 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$256 /mo · $3,075/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $-116

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,793

Max offer price $188,285

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $26	-5% $-45	+0% $-116	+5% $-186	+10% $-257
Rent	-10% $-246	-5% $-181	+0% $-116	+5% $-50	+10% $15
Rate	-1.0pp $-12	-0.5pp $-63	base $-116	+0.5pp $-169	+1.0pp $-223

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-07-31
   days on market $204,999 Active 119 DOM
2. 2026-07-30
   days on market $204,999 Active 118 DOM
3. 2026-07-29
   days on market $204,999 Active 117 DOM
4. 2026-07-27
   days on market $204,999 Active 115 DOM
5. 2026-07-25
   days on market $204,999 Active 113 DOM
6. 2026-07-23
   days on market $204,999 Active 111 DOM
7. 2026-07-22
   days on market $204,999 Active 110 DOM
8. 2026-07-21
   days on market $204,999 Active 109 DOM
9. 2026-07-18
   days on market $204,999 Active 106 DOM
10. 2026-07-16
    days on market $204,999 Active 104 DOM
11. 2026-07-16
    days on market $204,999 Active 103 DOM
12. 2026-07-14
    days on market $204,999 Active 102 DOM
13. 2026-07-13
    days on market $204,999 Active 101 DOM
14. 2026-07-12
    days on market $204,999 Active 100 DOM
15. 2026-07-11
    days on market $204,999 Active 99 DOM
16. 2026-07-10
    days on market $204,999 Active 98 DOM
17. 2026-07-10
    days on market $204,999 Active 97 DOM
18. 2026-07-08
    days on market $204,999 Active 96 DOM
19. 2026-07-07
    days on market $204,999 Active 95 DOM
20. 2026-07-06
    days on market $204,999 Active 94 DOM
21. 2026-07-05
    days on market $204,999 Active 93 DOM
22. 2026-07-04
    days on market $204,999 Active 92 DOM
23. 2026-07-03
    days on market $204,999 Active 91 DOM
24. 2026-07-02
    days on market $204,999 Active 90 DOM
25. 2026-07-01
    days on market $204,999 Active 89 DOM
26. 2026-06-30
    days on market $204,999 Active 88 DOM
27. 2026-06-29
    days on market $204,999 Active 87 DOM
28. 2026-06-28
    days on market $204,999 Active 86 DOM
29. 2026-06-28
    days on market $204,999 Active 85 DOM
30. 2026-06-27
    days on market $204,999 Active 84 DOM
31. 2026-06-25
    days on market $204,999 Active 82 DOM
32. 2026-06-23
    days on market $204,999 Active 80 DOM
33. 2026-06-21
    days on market $204,999 Active 79 DOM
34. 2026-06-18
    days on market $204,999 Active 76 DOM
35. 2026-06-17
    days on market $204,999 Active 75 DOM
36. 2026-06-16
    days on market $204,999 Active 74 DOM
37. 2026-06-15
    days on market $204,999 Active 73 DOM
38. 2026-06-14
    days on market $204,999 Active 71 DOM
39. 2026-06-13
    days on market $204,999 Active 70 DOM
40. 2026-06-10
    days on market $204,999 Active 68 DOM
41. 2026-06-09
    days on market $204,999 Active 67 DOM
42. 2026-06-08
    days on market $204,999 Active 66 DOM
43. 2026-06-07
    days on market $204,999 Active 65 DOM
44. 2026-06-03
    days on market $204,999 Active 61 DOM
45. 2026-06-02
    days on market $204,999 Active 60 DOM
46. 2026-06-01
    days on market $204,999 Active 59 DOM
47. 2026-05-31
    days on market $204,999 Active 58 DOM
48. 2026-05-30
    days on market $204,999 Active 57 DOM
49. 2026-04-20
    status Active 1270-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1270 chars)

    Under Construction. Welcome to this brand-new “Aleida” model by Bakan Homes, scheduled for completion September 18th, 2026. This With 1,058 square feet of living space, this charming wood-frame home is designed to offer modern comforts at an accessible price point. Step inside to discover an open concept living area featuring waterproof vinyl plank flooring in the social spaces and plush carpet in the bedrooms. The stylish L-shaped kitchen is equipped with sleek formica countertops and stainless-steel appliances including a dishwasher. Enjoy the contemporary touch of LED pendant lighting in the dining area, adding a touch of elegance to the space. Located in a growing community, this home offers the perfect combination of affordability, modern finishes, and convenience. Don’t miss the opportunity to own this new construction home in Ocala—perfect for first-time buyers or those looking to downsize. Your investment is protected by a limited Builder Warranty that expires 1 year after the issuance of the Certificate of Occupancy. Pictures are of a recently completed model. Colors, finishes, and appliances may vary from home to home. Estimated completion dates are only an estimate and can be delayed due to unforeseen circumstances.

50. 2026-03-31
    historical 1270-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1270 chars)

    Under Construction. Welcome to this brand-new “Aleida” model by Bakan Homes, scheduled for completion September 18th, 2026. This With 1,058 square feet of living space, this charming wood-frame home is designed to offer modern comforts at an accessible price point. Step inside to discover an open concept living area featuring waterproof vinyl plank flooring in the social spaces and plush carpet in the bedrooms. The stylish L-shaped kitchen is equipped with sleek formica countertops and stainless-steel appliances including a dishwasher. Enjoy the contemporary touch of LED pendant lighting in the dining area, adding a touch of elegance to the space. Located in a growing community, this home offers the perfect combination of affordability, modern finishes, and convenience. Don’t miss the opportunity to own this new construction home in Ocala—perfect for first-time buyers or those looking to downsize. Your investment is protected by a limited Builder Warranty that expires 1 year after the issuance of the Certificate of Occupancy. Pictures are of a recently completed model. Colors, finishes, and appliances may vary from home to home. Estimated completion dates are only an estimate and can be delayed due to unforeseen circumstances.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,765
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$3,075
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,581
• − Management: −$1,581
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable loss: −$4,944
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,187
• After-tax cash flow: $-200/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This brand-new home by Bakan Homes is move-in ready with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a great value for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Improves convenience and energy efficiency, attracting buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Add outdoor lighting — Enhances safety and curb appeal, making the property more attractive to potential buyers and renters. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 41/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Romeo Elementary School D- FL #1,234/2,144 Nat'l #15,585/41,679 Middle Dunnellon Middle School D FL #310/571 Nat'l #4,622/14,009 High Dunnellon High School F FL #429/667 Nat'l #10,806/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Rainbow Lakes Estates

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rainbow Lakes Estates, FL
• County: Marion County · 365,905 people
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 9,785
• Household income: $56,534
• Rent vs Own: 8.9% rent · 91.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 4% of renters

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Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -11.42%
• Current HPI: 343.1464
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-14 Listed $207,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid