2418 Liberty St · Erie, PA 16502

$120,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,840 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 300 Days on market

Built 1914 4,247 sqft lot $65/sqft · at area comps Est $122k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• ARV discount +8.2/15.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

Tenant responsible for snow removal and lawn care. Shared laundry in basement. Realtor is related to Seller.

Key facts

• 4,247 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1914

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath multifamily listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $34 ($408/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $118k (1.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 5.4% in Erie — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#109 in PA, #840 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Erie City SD (urban): math 12% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #510 of 539 in PA (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Perry El Sch (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,362 of 1,518 statewide, top 92%, 462 students, 100% FRL); Northwest Pa Collegiate Academy (math 82%, 753 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 81% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 56 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($39k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 300 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $54k; list at $120k implies a 124% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1914 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $105,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 300 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1914 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.22%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $121,764
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: -1.45%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2705 Liberty St	0.17mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,883 (+2%)	16mo	$126,000	$67	66
626-628 W 22nd St	0.25mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,946 (+6%)	23mo	$113,500	$58	51
3121 Chestnut St	0.68mi	2/2.0	1,768 (-4%)	9mo	$104,900	$59	50
667 W 32nd St	0.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,638 (-11%)	0mo	$139,000	$85	50
1161 W 21st St	0.51mi	2/2.0	1,680 (-9%)	21mo	$92,500	$55	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-17,251
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-12,123
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16502

• Home prices YoY: -30.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 56
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,185 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$223 /mo · $2,673/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$249
• Net cashflow: $34

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,142

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $102	-5% $68	+0% $34	+5% $0	+10% $-34
Rent	-10% $-60	-5% $-13	+0% $34	+5% $81	+10% $128
Rate	-1.0pp $94	-0.5pp $65	base $34	+0.5pp $3	+1.0pp $-29

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2702 Raspberry St Unit 1 Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	2000	$1,200	$0.60	45d	1	0.39mi
115 W 32nd St Erie, PA	3.0	2.0	1844	$1,050	$0.57	45d	1	1.03mi
538 W 8th St Unit 1 Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	2000	$1,650	$0.82	45d	1	1.14mi
1164 W 7th St Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1248	$1,600	$1.28	45d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-22
   price $120,000 108-char remark

   Show marketing remark (108 chars)

   Tenant responsible for snow removal and lawn care. Shared laundry in basement. Realtor is related to Seller.

2. 2025-11-24
   price $130,000 108-char remark

   Show marketing remark (108 chars)

   Tenant responsible for snow removal and lawn care. Shared laundry in basement. Realtor is related to Seller.

3. 2025-09-03
   price $145,000 108-char remark

   Show marketing remark (108 chars)

   Tenant responsible for snow removal and lawn care. Shared laundry in basement. Realtor is related to Seller.

4. 2025-07-31
   listed $150,000 Active 108-char remark

   Show marketing remark (108 chars)

   Tenant responsible for snow removal and lawn care. Shared laundry in basement. Realtor is related to Seller.

5. 2006-07-26
   soldstatus $53,500
6. 1990-08-24
   soldstatus $27,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,673 · $223/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,673 · $223/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,219
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$2,673
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,137
• − Management: −$1,137
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable loss: −$1,542
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$370
• After-tax cash flow: $778/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Erie City SD
• NCES district ID: 4209300
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $33,625
• Composite: 12.59/100
• National rank: #9617
• State rank: #510 of 539 in PA

Livability — Erie

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #840

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Erie, PA
• County: Erie County · 92,215 people
• City population: 92,215
• Metro: Erie, PA
• Population (ZIP): 15,995
• Household income: $38,566
• Rent vs Own: 60.6% rent · 39.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1044.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Two or more races 16% Hispanic / Latino 13% Black 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Serbian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.73%
• Current HPI: 211.4408
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• Metro: Erie, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+336.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $120,000 GEBOR
• 2025-11-24 Price Changed $130,000 GEBOR
• 2025-09-03 Price Changed $145,000 GEBOR
• 2025-07-31 Listed $150,000 GEBOR
• 2006-07-26 Sold (Public Records) $53,500 Public Records
• 1990-08-24 Sold (Public Records) $27,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,673 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.