Neptune Plan · Port Saint Lucie, FL 34987

$299,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,635 sqft · Townhouse · 263 Days on market

Good condition $200/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Step inside the Neptune and you'll be greeted by a stunning great room, ideal for gathering with friends and family. Past a powder room, the formal dining space adjoins your gourmet kitchen. The large island offers versatile space you'll love. Enjoy the fresh air on the private lanai. Your convenient one-car garage includes an oversized driveway, a storage closet and opens to the laundry room. Upstairs, two bedrooms each feature a walk-in closet, and open toward a full bath. Your luxury owner's suite is ideally located on the main level, and includes its own dual vanity bath and a massive walk-in closet.

Key facts

• One-car garage
• Walk-in closet
• Gourmet kitchen

Tags

• GREAT ROOM
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• PRIVATE LANAI
• ONE-CAR GARAGE
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• DUAL VANITY BATH

🏗️ New construction. The $299,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $368,890.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $300k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-587 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $284k (5.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $274k (8.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $264k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Manatee Academy K-8 (math 53% / reading 51%, grade C-, #990 of 2,144 statewide, top 48%, 1,664 students, 65% FRL); Southern Oaks Middle School (math 39% / reading 43%, grade F, #353 of 571 statewide, top 63%, 894 students, 76% FRL); Fort Pierce Central High School (math 15% / reading 45%, grade F, #441 of 667 statewide, top 67%, 3,091 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 1817 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 263 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $263,991 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 263 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.82%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $368,890
• List price: $299,990
• Delta: -18.68%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10437 NW Suncrest Loop	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,429 (-13%)	11mo	$320,000	$224	62
10477 NW Suncrest Loop	0.13mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,817 (+11%)	8mo	$404,070	$222	62
10460 NW Suncrest Loop	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,429 (-13%)	12mo	$350,000	$245	62
10533 NW Suncrest Loop	0.13mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,817 (+11%)	12mo	$390,000	$215	59
9340 Carlton Rd	1.29mi	3/2.0	1,996 (+22%)	5mo	$1,100,000	$551	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-97,659
• Equity at exit: $55,003

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.31×
• Total profit: $-135,132
• Equity at exit: $31,895

Cash invested: $103,289 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 26 active
• Median asking: $327,490 ($199/sqft)
• Median days on market: 59 d
• This list price: 27% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +13.3% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34987

• Home prices YoY: -21.6%
• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 1817
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,737 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,934
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$461 /mo · $5,533/yr
• Insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$200
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$575
• Net cashflow: $-587

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,480

Max offer price $283,884

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-333	-5% $-460	+0% $-587	+5% $-715	+10% $-842
Rent	-10% $-804	-5% $-696	+0% $-587	+5% $-479	+10% $-371
Rate	-1.0pp $-402	-0.5pp $-494	base $-587	+0.5pp $-683	+1.0pp $-780

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,222
• Closing costs: $11,067
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10644 NW Wilgrove LN St Lucie West, FL	2.0	2.5	1720	$2,400	$1.40	155d	1	0.01mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: List price $309,990
• HOA & community: Association fee of $200

Exterior

• Parking: 1 parking space
• Utilities: Central air for cooling
• Home design: Single-family plan (Neptune)
• Exterior features: Located at Neptune Plan, Port Saint Lucie, FL

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Plan: Neptune (new construction plan)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $299,990 Active 263 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $299,990 Active 262 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $299,990 Active 261 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $299,990 Active 260 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $299,990 Active 259 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $299,990 Active 257 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $299,990 Active 256 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $299,990 Active 255 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $299,990 Active 254 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $299,990 Active 253 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $299,990 Active 252 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $299,990 Active 251 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $299,990 Active 250 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $299,990 Active 249 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $299,990 Active 248 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $299,990 Active 247 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $299,990 Active 246 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $299,990 Active 245 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $299,990 Active 244 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $299,990 Active 243 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $299,990 Active 242 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $299,990 Active 241 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $299,990 Active 240 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $299,990 Active 239 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $299,990 Active 238 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $299,990 Active 237 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $299,990 Active 236 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $299,990 Active 235 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $299,990 Active 234 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $299,990 Active 233 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $299,990 Active 232 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $299,990 Active 231 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $299,990 Active 230 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $299,990 Active 229 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $299,990 Active 228 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $299,990 Active 227 DOM
37. 2026-10-01
    days on market $299,990 Active 225 DOM
38. 2026-09-30
    days on market $299,990 Active 224 DOM
39. 2026-09-29
    days on market $299,990 Active 223 DOM
40. 2026-09-27
    days on market $299,990 Active 221 DOM
41. 2026-09-25
    days on market $299,990 Active 219 DOM
42. 2026-09-24
    days on market $299,990 Active 218 DOM
43. 2026-09-23
    days on market $299,990 Active 217 DOM
44. 2026-09-22
    days on market $299,990 Active 216 DOM
45. 2026-09-21
    days on market $299,990 Active 215 DOM
46. 2026-09-20
    days on market $299,990 Active 214 DOM
47. 2026-09-19
    days on market $299,990 Active 213 DOM
48. 2026-09-18
    days on market $299,990 Active 212 DOM
49. 2026-09-17
    days on market $299,990 Active 211 DOM
50. 2026-09-16
    days on market $299,990 Active 210 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,838
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,664
• − Property taxes: −$5,533
• − Insurance: −$1,844
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,627
• − Management: −$2,627
• − HOA: −$2,400
• − Depreciation: −$10,731
• Taxable loss: −$13,588
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,261
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,788/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This townhouse is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It's ready for immediate occupancy and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint and some landscaping to enhance its curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard — Improves curb appeal and rental value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 30/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Weatherbee Elementary School F FL #1,797/2,144 Nat'l #24,950/41,679 Middle Dan Mccarty Middle School F FL #542/571 Nat'l #11,007/14,009 High St. Lucie West Centennial High F FL #351/667 Nat'l #9,347/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Lucie
• NCES district ID: 1201770
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,737
• Composite: 37.28/100
• National rank: #4449
• State rank: #51 of 73 in FL

Livability — Port Saint Lucie

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Lucie County · 338,016 people
• City population: 251,124
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 21,727
• Household income: $90,201
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 23% of renters

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Population outlook (St. Lucie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 338,016 people
• By 2030: 355,687 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 385,521 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 406,106 · +20.1%
• By 2075: 441,054 · +30.5%
• By 2100: 436,885 · +29.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 15% Black 12% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 1%
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 13% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · St. Lucie

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.1) · D 45.1% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.1pp · 2024: -9.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.1 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+2.5 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+12.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.23%
• Current HPI: 269.222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.77%
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: List price $309,990
• HOA & community: Association fee of $200

Exterior

• Parking: 1 parking space
• Utilities: Central air for cooling
• Home design: Single-family plan (Neptune)
• Exterior features: Located at Neptune Plan, Port Saint Lucie, FL

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Plan: Neptune (new construction plan)