5616 Ludlow Pl · Waldorf, MD 20695

$379,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,871 sqft · Townhouse public records · 79 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition 1,612 sqft lot $203/sqft · at area comps Est $376k · at est. $90/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.0/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This three-story home features a first-floor flex space ready to be transformed off the entrance. Upstairs is an open concept living room/dining room with a kitchen and breakfast room, along with an optional deck. The top floor features the owner's suite with vaulted ceilings and an extra bedroom.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Primary suite
• Deck

Tags

• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• CENTER ISLAND
• BREAKFAST AREA
• DECK
• PRIMARY SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $380k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-32 ($-381/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $374k (1.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $334k (12.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $334k (12.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.8% in Waldorf — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#141 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime D-, amenities F.
• Charles County Public Schools (suburban): math 13% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #14 of 24 in MD (top 58%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 245 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,542 units permitted in Charles County in 2024 (516 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Charles County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($357k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $333,604 (12.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.36%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $375,601
• List price: $379,990
• Delta: 1.17%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5616 Ludlow Pl	0.00mi	3/3.5	1,871 (0%)	1mo	$379,990	$203	95
5558 Marksburg Pl	0.05mi	3/3.5	1,871 (0%)	1mo	$379,990	$203	93
5638 Ludlow Pl	0.04mi	3/3.5	1,886 (+1%)	1mo	$376,990	$200	92
5639 Ludlow Pl	0.05mi	3/3.5	1,886 (+1%)	1mo	$379,990	$201	92
5640 Ludlow Pl	0.04mi	2/3.5 (-1)	1,871 (0%)	1mo	$379,990	$203	88
5627 Ludlow Pl	0.03mi	2/3.5 (-1)	1,829 (-2%)	1mo	$379,990	$208	85
5527 Aberdeen Pl	0.25mi	3/3.0	1,880 (+0%)	1mo	$399,990	$213	85
5556 Marksburg Pl	0.05mi	2/3.5 (-1)	1,829 (-2%)	1mo	$372,990	$204	84
5580 Ludlow Pl	0.10mi	2/3.5 (-1)	1,886 (+1%)	1mo	$377,990	$200	84
5515 Aberdeen Pl	0.26mi	2/3.0 (-1)	1,837 (-2%)	1mo	$369,990	$201	77
5511 Aberdeen Pl	0.26mi	3/0.5	1,896 (+1%)	1mo	$399,990	$211	77
10971 Barnard Pl	0.13mi	3/2.5	2,117 (+13%)	1mo	$417,990	$197	72

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-63,524
• Equity at exit: $56,658

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-57,615
• Equity at exit: $32,855

Cash invested: $106,397 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20695

• Home prices YoY: -5.3%
• Active inventory: 245
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,336 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,993
• Tax from tax record: −$426 /mo · $5,115/yr
• Insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$90
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$701
• Net cashflow: $-32

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,376

Max offer price $374,375

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $94,998
• Closing costs: $11,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10939 Drummond Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	2.5	2192	$3,500	$1.60	24d	1	0.21mi
10933 Drummond Pl Unit 10933 White Plains, MD	3.0	3.0	2300	$3,500	$1.52	5d	1	0.22mi
5527 Aberdeen Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	4.0	1880	$3,000	$1.60	12d	1	0.28mi
5692 Glencoe Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	2.5	1942	$3,332	$1.72	2d	2	0.28mi
10893 Drummond Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	2.5	2192	$3,250	$1.48	22d	1	0.31mi
11180 Conway Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	2.5	1765	$3,258	$1.85	5d	7	0.43mi
4165 Brodie Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	3.5	2544	$3,000	$1.18	17d	1	0.53mi
11472 Stockport Pl White Plains, MD	4.0	3.5	2418	$3,500	$1.45	43d	1	0.54mi
3908 Glacier Bay Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	2.5	2388	$3,200	$1.34	24d	1	0.92mi
10605 Willetts Crossing Rd White Plains, MD	4.0	1.0	1514	$2,390	$1.58	43d	1	1.02mi
5754 Frederick Douglas Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	3.5	2220	$3,500	$1.58	43d	1	1.04mi
5525 Peanuts Ln Waldorf, MD	3.0	4.0	2160	$3,400	$1.57	43d	1	1.23mi
11696 Palm Desert Pl Waldorf, MD	3.0	2.5	1720	$2,900	$1.69	17d	1	1.26mi
11761 Nationals Ln Unit 11761 Waldorf, MD	3.0	2.5	2160	$3,200	$1.48	12d	1	1.27mi
11761 Nationals Ln Unit 11761 Waldorf, MD	3.0	2.5	2160	$3,200	$1.48	24d	1	1.27mi
11777 Sunningdale Pl Waldorf, MD	3.0	2.5	1944	$2,800	$1.44	43d	1	1.34mi
5065 Ottawa Park Pl Waldorf, MD	3.0	2.0	2192	$2,800	$1.28	12d	1	1.34mi
11748 Sunningdale Pl Waldorf, MD	3.0	2.5	1860	$2,750	$1.48	24d	1	1.35mi
5066 Oyster Reef Pl Waldorf, MD	2.0	2.5	1380	$2,695	$1.95	12d	1	1.36mi
5423 Saint Rita Dr Waldorf, MD	3.0	2.5	2268	$3,000	$1.32	43d	1	1.41mi
4546 Scottsdale Pl Waldorf, MD	3.0	2.5	2021	$2,645	$1.31	5d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $90 · $1,080/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-11
   listed $379,990 Active 298-char remark

   Show marketing remark (298 chars)

   This three-story home features a first-floor flex space ready to be transformed off the entrance. Upstairs is an open concept living room/dining room with a kitchen and breakfast room, along with an optional deck. The top floor features the owner's suite with vaulted ceilings and an extra bedroom.

2. 2026-04-07
   price $379,990 1291-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1291 chars)

   Move-in ready! This beautiful three-story Baylor townhome offers 2 spacious bedrooms, 3 full baths, and 1 half bath designed for modern living and flexibility. The entry level features a versatile flex space with a full bathroom—perfect for guests, a home office, gym, or additional living area. The second level showcases an open-concept layout with a stylish kitchen featuring stainless steel appliances, center island, and breakfast area that flows seamlessly into the spacious living room. A convenient powder room is also located on this level. Step outside to the deck just off the kitchen—perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Upstairs, the bedroom level includes two generously sized bedrooms, including a stunning primary suite with vaulted ceilings, walk-in closet, and spa-inspired en-suite bath with dual vanities. A second bedroom, full hallway bath, and conveniently located laundry area with washer and dryer complete this level. Located in the desirable St. Charles Highlands community, residents enjoy access to a clubhouse, fitness center, swimming pool, playground, and dog park. Schedule your showing today and experience comfort, privacy, and community living at its best! Prices and features are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

3. 2026-03-08
   listed $374,990 Active 1291-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1291 chars)

   Move-in ready! This beautiful three-story Baylor townhome offers 2 spacious bedrooms, 3 full baths, and 1 half bath designed for modern living and flexibility. The entry level features a versatile flex space with a full bathroom—perfect for guests, a home office, gym, or additional living area. The second level showcases an open-concept layout with a stylish kitchen featuring stainless steel appliances, center island, and breakfast area that flows seamlessly into the spacious living room. A convenient powder room is also located on this level. Step outside to the deck just off the kitchen—perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Upstairs, the bedroom level includes two generously sized bedrooms, including a stunning primary suite with vaulted ceilings, walk-in closet, and spa-inspired en-suite bath with dual vanities. A second bedroom, full hallway bath, and conveniently located laundry area with washer and dryer complete this level. Located in the desirable St. Charles Highlands community, residents enjoy access to a clubhouse, fitness center, swimming pool, playground, and dog park. Schedule your showing today and experience comfort, privacy, and community living at its best! Prices and features are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

4. 2025-03-25
   soldstatus $6,866,524

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,115 · $426/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,115 · $426/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,032
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,285
• − Property taxes: −$5,115
• − Insurance: −$1,900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,203
• − Management: −$3,203
• − HOA: −$1,080
• − Depreciation: −$11,054
• Taxable loss: −$6,807
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,634
• After-tax cash flow: $1,252/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in ready townhouse is in good condition with no major repairs needed. It offers a spacious layout and modern amenities, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value.
• Both New flooring in entry level flex space — Improves functionality and aesthetics in a high-traffic area.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value. ↑
• Both New flooring in entry level flex space — Improves functionality and aesthetics in a high-traffic area. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Charles County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400270
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $90,389
• Composite: 22.54/100
• National rank: #8087
• State rank: #14 of 24 in MD

Livability — Waldorf

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #141
• US rank: #6083

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime D- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waldorf, MD
• County: Charles County · 103,527 people
• City population: 103,527
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 16,407
• Household income: $141,959
• Rent vs Own: 12.8% rent · 87.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 311.0

Population outlook (Charles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 176,616 people
• By 2030: 186,471 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 206,472 · +16.9%
• By 2050: 224,883 · +27.3%
• By 2075: 272,101 · +54.1%
• By 2100: 303,564 · +71.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 61% White 23% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Charles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+40.7) · D 69.2% · R 28.5% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +15.2pp toward D · 2008: 25.5pp · 2024: 40.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+40.7 2020: D+40.9 2016: D+30.2 2012: D+31.3 2008: D+25.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.63%
• Current HPI: 226.972
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

-94.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Listed $379,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $379,990 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-08 Listed $374,990 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-03-25 Sold (Public Records) $6,866,524 Public Records