16494 12th · Hot Springs Village, AR 72122

$179,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,892 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 53 Days on market

Built 1952 0.50 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.3/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Adorable, completely remodeled home that sits on half acre lot. Everything brand new. Fenced in yard with detached 2 car carport with big storage building. Huge storm shelter.

Key facts

• Renovated home
• Oversized closets
• New flooring

Tags

• FULLY FENCED LOT
• RENOVATED HOME
• NEW FLOORING
• UPDATED LAYOUT
• OVERSIZED CLOSETS
• NEW ROOF

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Financing options: VA, FHA, Conventional, or Cash

Exterior

• Parking: Carport; Parking pads; Space for 4+ cars
• Utilities: Public water; Septic; Electric (Co-Op); Insulated windows
• Home design: Brick and metal/vinyl siding exterior
• Construction: Composition roof; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Fully fenced yard; Level lot; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in stove; Electric range; Dishwasher
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central cooling (electric)
• Interior features: Washer and dryer connections (dryer electric); Walk-in closets; Den/Family room
• Laundry & utility: Washer connection; Dryer connection (electric)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-108 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $161k (10.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $126k (29.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $126k (29.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.6% in Hot Springs Village — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#76 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Bryant School District (suburban): math 49% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #16 of 238 in AR (top 7%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Salem Elementary School (math 56% / reading 41%, grade D, #109 of 454 statewide, top 25%, 479 students, 46% FRL); Bethel Middle School (math 62% / reading 58%, grade B, #11 of 201 statewide, top 5%, 709 students, 43% FRL); Bryant High School (math 32% / reading 50%, grade F, #43 of 292 statewide, top 15%, 2,199 students, 47% FRL).
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 446 units permitted in Saline County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (4.5% local appreciation)).
• Saline County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,363 (29.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.58%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.54% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $29,753
• Equity at exit: $96,907

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.95×
• Total profit: $98,191
• Equity at exit: $163,222

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72122

• Home prices YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 20
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,264 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$88 /mo · $1,060/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $-108

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,401

Max offer price $160,738

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-7	-5% $-58	+0% $-108	+5% $-159	+10% $-210
Rent	-10% $-208	-5% $-158	+0% $-108	+5% $-59	+10% $-9
Rate	-1.0pp $-18	-0.5pp $-63	base $-108	+0.5pp $-155	+1.0pp $-203

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $179,900 Active 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,900 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,900 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,900 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,900 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   statusdays on market $179,900 Active 45 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,900 Back on Market 44 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $179,900 Back on Market 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,900 Back on Market 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $179,900 Back on Market 40 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    statusdays on market $179,900 Back on Market 39 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $179,900 Take Backups 36 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,900 Take Backups 35 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,900 Take Backups 34 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,900 Take Backups 33 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,900 Take Backups 32 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,900 Take Backups 31 DOM
18. 2026-05-14
    price $179,900
19. 2026-04-29
    listed $184,900 New Listing
20. 2024-01-19
    status Under Contract 175-char remark

    Show marketing remark (175 chars)

    Adorable, completely remodeled home that sits on half acre lot. Everything brand new. Fenced in yard with detached 2 car carport with big storage building. Huge storm shelter.

21. 2024-01-11
    soldstatus $158,500
22. 2024-01-09
    soldstatus $158,500 Sold 175-char remark

    Show marketing remark (175 chars)

    Adorable, completely remodeled home that sits on half acre lot. Everything brand new. Fenced in yard with detached 2 car carport with big storage building. Huge storm shelter.

23. 2023-12-05
    historical Take Backups 175-char remark

    Show marketing remark (175 chars)

    Adorable, completely remodeled home that sits on half acre lot. Everything brand new. Fenced in yard with detached 2 car carport with big storage building. Huge storm shelter.

24. 2023-12-01
    status Back on Market 175-char remark

    Show marketing remark (175 chars)

    Adorable, completely remodeled home that sits on half acre lot. Everything brand new. Fenced in yard with detached 2 car carport with big storage building. Huge storm shelter.

25. 2023-11-07
    status Under Contract 175-char remark

    Show marketing remark (175 chars)

    Adorable, completely remodeled home that sits on half acre lot. Everything brand new. Fenced in yard with detached 2 car carport with big storage building. Huge storm shelter.

26. 2023-10-11
    listed $158,500 New Listing 175-char remark

    Show marketing remark (175 chars)

    Adorable, completely remodeled home that sits on half acre lot. Everything brand new. Fenced in yard with detached 2 car carport with big storage building. Huge storm shelter.

27. 2023-09-06
    historical
28. 2023-05-22
    listed $195,000 New Listing
29. 2023-05-13
    historical
30. 2023-02-04
    price $225,000
31. 2023-01-13
    listed $246,500 New Listing
32. 2022-11-01
    historical
33. 2022-09-30
    listed $140,000 New Listing

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,060 · $88/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,151 · $96/mo
• Expected delta: +$91/yr (+$8/mo · 8.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,164
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$1,060
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,213
• − Management: −$1,213
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable loss: −$4,533
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,088
• After-tax cash flow: $-214/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bryant School District
• NCES district ID: 0503690
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $57,578
• Composite: 42.28/100
• National rank: #3266
• State rank: #16 of 238 in AR

Livability — Hot Springs Village

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #76
• US rank: #8970

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 18,449
• Population (ZIP): 1,226

Population outlook (Saline County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 140,141 people
• By 2030: 151,233 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 173,100 · +23.5%
• By 2050: 194,368 · +38.7%
• By 2075: 245,295 · +75.0%
• By 2100: 279,117 · +99.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 3% Asian 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 16% Slovak 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · China
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Chinese 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Saline

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.1) · D 28.8% · R 69.0% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.8pp no change · 2008: -41.0pp · 2024: -40.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.1 2020: R+41.2 2016: R+43.5 2012: R+42.7 2008: R+41.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• Current HPI: 227.015
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+28.5% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $179,900 CARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $184,900 CARMLS
• 2024-01-19 Pending — CARMLS
• 2024-01-11 Sold (Public Records) $158,500 Public Records
• 2024-01-09 Sold (MLS) $158,500 CARMLS
• 2023-12-05 Contingent — CARMLS
• 2023-12-01 Relisted — CARMLS
• 2023-11-07 Pending — CARMLS
• 2023-10-11 Listed $158,500 CARMLS
• 2023-09-06 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2023-05-22 Listed $195,000 CARMLS
• 2023-05-13 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2023-02-04 Price Changed $225,000 CARMLS
• 2023-01-13 Listed $246,500 CARMLS
• 2022-11-01 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2022-09-30 Listed $140,000 CARMLS

Property tax history

+59.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,060 · -8.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.