2306 Winthrop Ave · Princeton, TX 75407

$284,500

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,260 sqft · SingleFamily · 20 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 6,534 sqft lot $126/sqft · 9% below area Est $313k · 9% under $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MLS# 21246010 - Built by Starlight Homes - Ready Now! ~ Cash offering. As you enter the home, you're welcomed into the foyer with immediate access to the staircase leading to the second floor. Continuing through the main level, you’ll pass a storage closet, a bedroom with a full bath, and entry to the two-car garage. The home then opens into the family room, dining area, and kitchen—offering a comfortable and connected living space. Upstairs, a spacious loft serves as a central gathering area, leading to two additional bedrooms, each with its own walk-in closet and a shared full bath. The second floor also includes the primary bedroom, featuring a private bath and a generous wal

Key facts

• 6,534 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property listed as new construction — builder listing; Subdivision: Monticello Park
• Financial info: Second mortgage: none reported; Loan type listed as 'Treat As Clear'
• HOA & community: Mandatory association (Vision Communities Management); Annual HOA fee of $500; Association fees include management fees

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2-car garage (20' x 20'); 2-car single door configuration
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Sidewalk (public); Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Two-story; Located in the Monticello Park community
• Construction: New construction completed in 2026; Brick and siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Private yard; Exterior lighting; Wood fencing; Sidewalk; Greenbelt access; Jogging/bike path; Playground

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms; Primary bedroom located on the second floor
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Cable TV available; High-speed internet available; One living area; Two levels
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $284k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-147 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $263k (7.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $236k (17.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $236k (17.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.5% in Princeton — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#969 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Princeton ISD (suburban): math 51% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #188 of 826 in TX (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lacy El (math 44% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,243 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 670 students, 59% FRL); Clark Middle (math 53% / reading 42%, grade C-, #408 of 1,662 statewide, top 25%, 707 students, 66% FRL); Princeton H S (math 52% / reading 54%, grade C-, #437 of 1,632 statewide, top 27%, 1,521 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools at 61% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1410 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($280k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $235,557 (17.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.22%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $313,395
• List price: $284,500
• Delta: -9.22%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2306 Winthrop Ave	0.00mi	4/3.0	2,260 (0%)	1mo	$284,500	$126	99
2105 N Washington St	0.25mi	4/3.0	2,264 (+0%)	1mo	$329,500	$146	88
2316 Winthrop Ave	0.04mi	4/2.5	2,121 (-6%)	2mo	$319,490	$151	85
504 Virginia Way	0.43mi	4/3.0	2,264 (+0%)	2mo	$365,000	$161	78
902 Colgate Cir	0.50mi	4/3.5	2,314 (+2%)	1mo	$403,900	$175	70
1906 Boston Way	0.53mi	4/3.5	2,314 (+2%)	2mo	$359,000	$155	68
908 Colgate Cir	0.52mi	4/3.0	2,445 (+8%)	1mo	$379,000	$155	61
1006 Colgate Cir	0.56mi	4/3.0	2,445 (+8%)	1mo	$366,000	$150	59
1901 Boston Way	0.57mi	4/3.0	2,445 (+8%)	1mo	$374,000	$153	59
609 Declaration Dr	0.34mi	4/2.0	1,991 (-12%)	2mo	$310,000	$156	59
906 Colgate Cir	0.51mi	4/2.0	1,980 (-12%)	1mo	$350,000	$177	50
1905 Boston Way	0.56mi	4/2.0	1,980 (-12%)	2mo	$340,000	$172	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-62,319
• Equity at exit: $42,420

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.16×
• Total profit: $-92,769
• Equity at exit: $24,598

Cash invested: $79,660 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75407

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 1410
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,356 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,492
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$356 /mo · $4,268/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$495
• Net cashflow: $-147

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,542

Max offer price $263,198

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $49	-5% $-49	+0% $-147	+5% $-246	+10% $-344
Rent	-10% $-333	-5% $-240	+0% $-147	+5% $-54	+10% $39
Rate	-1.0pp $-4	-0.5pp $-75	base $-147	+0.5pp $-221	+1.0pp $-296

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,125
• Closing costs: $8,535
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2304 Winthrop Ave Princeton, TX	5.0	3.0	2777	$2,600	$0.94	45d	1	0.03mi
1901 States St Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	2260	$2,700	$1.19	26d	1	0.04mi
2312 Winthrop Ave Princeton, TX	5.0	3.0	2609	$2,275	$0.87	45d	1	0.06mi
2206 Pioneer Dr Princeton, TX	5.0	3.0	2777	$2,600	$0.94	45d	1	0.06mi
2313 States St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1826	$2,200	$1.20	26d	1	0.07mi
2119 Hamilton St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1605	$2,000	$1.25	45d	1	0.08mi
216 Savannah Way Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1650	$1,875	$1.14	9d	1	0.11mi
212 Savannah Way Princeton, TX	5.0	3.0	2755	$2,299	$0.83	0d	1	0.13mi
2117 Revere Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1633	$2,050	$1.26	45d	1	0.13mi
112 Connecticut Ct , TX	3.0	2.5	1605	$1,990	$1.24	45d	1	0.16mi
311 Pennsylvania Ave Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	2258	$2,095	$0.93	0d	1	0.18mi
2004 Hancock Cir Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	2258	$1,995	$0.88	14d	1	0.19mi
2008 Washington St Princeton, TX	5.0	2.5	3144	$2,600	$0.83	45d	1	0.23mi
408 Forest St Princeton, TX	5.0	3.5	2617	$2,595	$0.99	4d	1	0.23mi
1906 Chapel Hill Rd Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1633	$1,995	$1.22	45d	1	0.25mi
1908 Marquette Dr Princeton, TX	5.0	3.0	2609	$2,150	$0.82	22d	1	0.27mi
1902 Chapel Hill Rd Princeton, TX	5.0	3.0	2616	$2,295	$0.88	6d	1	0.27mi
603 Charity Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	2252	$2,300	$1.02	45d	1	0.27mi
1901 Chapel Hill Rd Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1605	$1,750	$1.09	20d	1	0.28mi
1818 Marquette Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1633	$1,800	$1.10	45d	1	0.30mi
1809 Chapel Hill Rd Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	2121	$2,100	$0.99	6d	1	0.33mi
611 Colgate Cir Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1920	$2,500	$1.30	45d	1	0.34mi
1610 Palladio Loop Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1957	$1,899	$0.97	45d	1	0.34mi
603 Delaware Ave Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1633	$1,897	$1.16	7d	1	0.35mi
619 Colgate Cir Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	2182	$2,295	$1.05	45d	1	0.36mi
1802 Washington St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1920	$1,950	$1.02	26d	1	0.38mi
613 Delaware Ave Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1920	$1,950	$1.02	26d	1	0.38mi
1708 Chapel Hill Rd Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1826	$1,850	$1.01	5d	1	0.38mi
718 Declaration Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1991	$2,195	$1.10	45d	1	0.39mi
1709 Chapel Hill Rd Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1633	$1,695	$1.04	45d	1	0.39mi
622 Delaware Ave Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1633	$1,850	$1.13	24d	1	0.39mi
1658 Palladio Loop Unit 1658 Princeton, TX	3.0	3.5	1994	$1,950	$0.98	22d	1	0.40mi
1702 Chapel Hill Rd Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	2121	$1,995	$0.94	9d	1	0.40mi
508 Virginia Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1900	$2,200	$1.16	14d	1	0.40mi
623 Delaware Ave Princeton, TX	5.0	3.0	2616	$2,295	$0.88	9d	1	0.41mi
625 Delaware Ave Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1920	$2,000	$1.04	4d	1	0.41mi
512 Virginia Way Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	2133	$2,150	$1.01	26d	1	0.42mi
514 Virginia Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1980	$2,200	$1.11	6d	1	0.42mi
1609 Washington St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	2182	$2,150	$0.99	0d	1	0.48mi
424 Madison Way Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	2258	$2,350	$1.04	45d	1	0.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 759-char remark
2. 2026-04-21
   listed $284,500 Active 759-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,267
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,936
• − Property taxes: −$4,268
• − Insurance: −$1,422
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,261
• − Management: −$2,261
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$8,276
• Taxable loss: −$6,663
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,599
• After-tax cash flow: $-168/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in good condition with a modern kitchen and well-maintained exterior. It is ready for immediate occupancy and minor touch-ups can further enhance its appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can make a home look more appealing and modern.
• Rental Clean gutters — Clean gutters improve drainage and prevent water damage, which is important for renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can make a home look more appealing and modern. ↑
• Rental Clean gutters — Clean gutters improve drainage and prevent water damage, which is important for renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Princeton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835850
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,827
• Composite: 42.44/100
• National rank: #3226
• State rank: #188 of 826 in TX

Livability — Princeton

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #969
• US rank: #17215

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 34,171
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,171
• Household income: $100,037
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 368.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 30% Black 17% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Mexico
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.99%
• Current HPI: 238.9373
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.02%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2026-05-11 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-21 Listed $284,500 NTREIS