200 S Johnson St · Samson, AL 36477

$87,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,060 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 59 Days on market

Built 1900 0.39 ac lot $42/sqft · 40% below area Est $146k · 40% under ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• Appreciation +7.6/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Victorian style home on a corner lot in South Alabama. Just a few minutes from the Florida border. Remodeling was started but not completed. Needs flooring and paint. Fence back yard and features a single car carport on the back.

Key facts

• Victorian style home
• Fence back yard
• Single car carport

Tags

• VICTORIAN STYLE HOME
• CORNER LOT
• FENCE BACK YARD
• SINGLE CAR CARPORT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Paved attached parking
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Metal roof; Built on crawl space
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing; Barns and exterior storage

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $87k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $318 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $87k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#318 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing B+; Watch: health & safety D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Geneva County (rural): math 22% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #39 of 129 in AL (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 39 units permitted in Geneva County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($601 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (5.2% local appreciation)).
• Geneva County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (5.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $28k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $84,390 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.67%
• DSCR: 1.70
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $145,503
• List price: $87,000
• Delta: -40.21%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
202 S Johnson St	0.02mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,922 (-7%)	10mo	$110,000	$57	70
207 W Pullum St	0.40mi	3/2.0	2,004 (-3%)	4mo	$165,000	$82	69
113 N Bay St	0.50mi	3/2.0	2,166 (+5%)	22mo	$201,900	$93	46
113 N Bay St	0.50mi	3/2.0	2,166 (+5%)	22mo	$201,900	$93	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.22% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.70×
• Total profit: $41,455
• Equity at exit: $50,493

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.41×
• Total profit: $107,337
• Equity at exit: $88,146

Cash invested: $24,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36477

• Home prices YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 25
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,164 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$456
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$109 /mo · $1,305/yr
• Insurance: −$36
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$244
• Net cashflow: $318

Break-even live

Break-even rent $761

Max offer price $87,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $378	-5% $348	+0% $318	+5% $288	+10% $258
Rent	-10% $226	-5% $272	+0% $318	+5% $364	+10% $410
Rate	-1.0pp $362	-0.5pp $340	base $318	+0.5pp $296	+1.0pp $273

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,750
• Closing costs: $2,610
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $87,000 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $87,000 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $87,000 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $87,000 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $87,000 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $87,000 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $87,000 Active 51 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $87,000 Active 50 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on market $87,000 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $115,000 Active 46 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $115,000 Active 45 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $115,000 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $115,000 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $115,000 Active 40 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 39 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 38 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $115,000 Active 37 DOM
18. 2026-04-23
    listed $115,000 Active 229-char remark
19. 2025-05-28
    price $94,900
20. 2025-04-28
    status Active
21. 2025-04-28
    price $99,900
22. 2025-04-15
    historical Active Under Contract
23. 2025-03-06
    listed $110,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,966
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,873
• − Property taxes: −$1,305
• − Insurance: −$435
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,117
• − Management: −$1,117
• − Depreciation: −$2,531
• Taxable income: $2,587
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$621
• After-tax cash flow: $3,197/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Geneva County
• NCES district ID: 0101660
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $36,144
• Composite: 30.15/100
• National rank: #6325
• State rank: #39 of 129 in AL

Livability — Samson

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #318
• US rank: #19684

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Samson, AL
• Population (ZIP): 4,363

Population outlook (Geneva County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,614 people
• By 2030: 26,346 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 25,491 · -4.2%
• By 2050: 24,280 · -8.8%
• By 2075: 20,914 · -21.4%
• By 2100: 16,830 · -36.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 6% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Geneva

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+77.0) · D 11.2% · R 88.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.5pp toward R · 2008: -62.5pp · 2024: -77.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+77.0 2020: R+73.8 2016: R+72.4 2012: R+63.0 2008: R+62.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.22%
• Current HPI: 130.3062
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-20.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Price Changed $87,000 CAOR
• 2026-04-23 Listed $115,000 CAOR
• 2025-05-28 Price Changed $94,900 WBR
• 2025-04-28 Relisted — WBR
• 2025-04-28 Price Changed $99,900 WBR
• 2025-04-15 Contingent — WBR
• 2025-03-06 Listed $110,000 WBR