1821 East Trail Dr SE · Wilson, NC 27893

$165,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1994 8,276 sqft lot Est $145k · 14% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.3/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Completely renovated 3BR/1bath ranch. New roof, siding, windows, all new paint & flooring. Just Move In.

Key facts

• 8,276 sq ft lot
• Built 1994
• Listed 37 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: On-site parking
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level / single-story; Entry level: 1; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding and frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on a 0.19-acre lot (lot dimensions: 32 x 114 x 88 x 111)
• Exterior features: Patio or porch (see remarks); No fencing; Has a view; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator; Dishwasher not listed
• Bedrooms: Five total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump; Electric heating; Has cooling
• Interior features: Washer; Refrigerator; Dryer; Electric Range; Carpet flooring; Heat pump cooling and heating; Electric heating
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1 ($6/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $134k (19.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $134k (19.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.4% in Wilson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#374 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Wilson County Schools (rural): math 38% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #119 of 178 in NC (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: B O Barnes Elementary (math 17% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,287 of 1,410 statewide, top 93%, 300 students, 99% FRL); Charles H Darden Middle (math 17% / reading 25%, grade F, #424 of 475 statewide, top 90%, 441 students, 99% FRL); Beddingfield High (math 57% / reading 32%, grade F, #352 of 535 statewide, top 68%, 682 students, 98% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 58% district-wide (41 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.0%/yr); 261 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 580 units permitted in Wilson County in 2024 (168 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($43k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wilson County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $140k; 18% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 71% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $133,545 (19.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.01%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $144,960
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1805 Ruffleleaf Cir	0.06mi	3/1.0	960 (0%)	8mo	$165,000	$172	91
1803 Ruffleleaf Cir	0.05mi	3/1.0	960 (0%)	13mo	$145,000	$151	87
1845 E Trail Dr SE	0.08mi	2/2.0 (-1)	888 (-8%)	16mo	$180,750	$204	61
400 Minchew St SE	0.47mi	3/1.0	1,066 (+11%)	10mo	$184,000	$173	52
1201 Lincoln St SE	0.58mi	3/1.0	1,080 (+12%)	1mo	$90,000	$83	51
807 Irma St SE	0.50mi	2/1.0 (-1)	925 (-4%)	19mo	$32,000	$35	50
5822 Ward Blvd	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,102 (+15%)	22mo	$135,000	$123	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.01% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-21,132
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $6,493
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27893

• Rents YoY: 7.0%
• Active inventory: 261
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,335 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$120 /mo · $1,446/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$280
• Net cashflow: $1

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,335

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $94	-5% $47	+0% $1	+5% $-46	+10% $-93
Rent	-10% $-105	-5% $-52	+0% $1	+5% $53	+10% $106
Rate	-1.0pp $84	-0.5pp $42	base $1	+0.5pp $-42	+1.0pp $-86

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $165,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $165,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $165,000 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $171,000 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $171,000 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $171,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $171,000 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $171,000 Active 23 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $171,000 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    remarks 342-char remark
15. 2026-06-02
    pricestatusdays on market $171,000 Active 21 DOM
16. 2026-04-29
    status Pending
17. 2026-04-21
    price $168,650
18. 2026-04-09
    listed $173,300 Active
19. 2023-11-21
    soldstatus $139,900 Closed 110-char remark

    Show marketing remark (110 chars)

    Completely renovated 3BR/1bath ranch. New roof, siding, windows, all new paint & flooring. Just Move In.

20. 2023-11-21
    soldstatus $140,000

    Show marketing remark (110 chars)

    Completely renovated 3BR/1bath ranch. New roof, siding, windows, all new paint & flooring. Just Move In.

21. 2023-09-22
    status Pending 110-char remark

    Show marketing remark (110 chars)

    Completely renovated 3BR/1bath ranch. New roof, siding, windows, all new paint & flooring. Just Move In.

22. 2023-09-07
    status Active 110-char remark

    Show marketing remark (110 chars)

    Completely renovated 3BR/1bath ranch. New roof, siding, windows, all new paint & flooring. Just Move In.

23. 2023-08-21
    status Pending 110-char remark

    Show marketing remark (110 chars)

    Completely renovated 3BR/1bath ranch. New roof, siding, windows, all new paint & flooring. Just Move In.

24. 2023-08-18
    listed $139,900 Active 110-char remark

    Show marketing remark (110 chars)

    Completely renovated 3BR/1bath ranch. New roof, siding, windows, all new paint & flooring. Just Move In.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,446 · $120/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,446 · $120/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 71% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,025
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$1,446
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,282
• − Management: −$1,282
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$2,852
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$684
• After-tax cash flow: $691/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wilson County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3705020
• Math proficiency: 38% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,342
• Composite: 32.64/100
• National rank: #5665
• State rank: #119 of 178 in NC

Livability — Wilson

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #374
• US rank: #14674

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wilson, NC
• County: Wilson County · 57,967 people
• City population: 57,967
• Metro: Wilson, NC
• Population (ZIP): 38,512
• Household income: $42,810
• Rent vs Own: 55.8% rent · 44.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2175.0

Population outlook (Wilson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 82,765 people
• By 2030: 82,492 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 81,054 · -2.1%
• By 2050: 78,610 · -5.0%
• By 2075: 71,865 · -13.2%
• By 2100: 62,792 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 55% White 27% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 13%

Political lean MEDSL · Wilson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.8% · R 49.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.7pp toward R · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 0.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.4 2020: D+2.9 2016: D+5.6 2012: D+7.3 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -149.54%
• Current HPI: 211.4136
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.01%
• Metro: Wilson, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+20.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Pending — Hive MLS
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $168,650 Hive MLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $173,300 Hive MLS
• 2023-11-21 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records
• 2023-11-21 Sold (MLS) $139,900 Hive MLS
• 2023-09-22 Pending — Hive MLS
• 2023-09-07 Relisted — Hive MLS
• 2023-08-21 Pending — Hive MLS
• 2023-08-18 Listed $139,900 Hive MLS

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,446 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.