3634 Hawhorne #160 · Bethel Island, CA 94511

$269,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,323 sqft · Manufactured · 47 Days on market

Built 2017

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.3/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fabulous home recently upgraded. New carpet paint 6 panel doors hardware. Custom features throughout, double pain windows, No paneled or plastic walls! All fixtures and sinks new. Ceiling fans every room. Enclosed porch off master

Key facts

• Updated flooring
• Recessed lighting
• Modern kitchen

Tags

• MODERN KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• BREAKFAST BAR SEATING
• UPDATED FLOORING
• RECESSED LIGHTING
• LOW-MAINTENANCE LANDSCAPING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community pool
• HOA & community: Pets allowed (cats and dogs; size and number limits; approval required); Community clubhouse; Community pool; Car wash area; Guest parking; Community laundry; Park interview required; Picnic area

Exterior

• Parking: Covered carport for 2 or more vehicles
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Internet available
• Home design: Manufactured in park (mobile home); Double wide model CM3563F
• Construction: Composition shingle roof; Lap siding; Lap skirt
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Back yard; Private lot features; Close to clubhouse; Storage (shed)

Interior

• Kitchen: Stone counters; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Free‑standing range; Refrigerator; Updated kitchen; Pantry
• Flooring: Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 total bathrooms (both full)
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Pantry; Updated kitchen; No additional rooms; Screens
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer and dryer; Gas dryer hookup; Cabinets in laundry area; Washer included; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $439 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $270k).
• Recommended offer: $262k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 2.7% in Bethel Island — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,166 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A-; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Oakley Union Elementary (suburban): math 26% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #837 of 1,400 in CA (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $76k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $106k; list at $270k implies a 155% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $261,803 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.74%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $127,008
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
336 Alcott Ct #170	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+2%)	1mo	$129,000	$96	95
3760 Porter Cir	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+2%)	15mo	$159,900	$119	82
3757 Porter Cir #69	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+2%)	22mo	$80,000	$60	72
3621 Hawthorne Dr #110	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+9%)	19mo	$130,000	$90	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.32×
• Total profit: $175,265
• Equity at exit: $243,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.55×
• Total profit: $494,766
• Equity at exit: $524,356

Cash invested: $75,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94511

• Home prices YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 79
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,457 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,415
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$337 /mo · $4,048/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$726
• Net cashflow: $439

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,901

Max offer price $269,900

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $625	-5% $532	+0% $439	+5% $346	+10% $252
Rent	-10% $166	-5% $302	+0% $439	+5% $575	+10% $712
Rate	-1.0pp $575	-0.5pp $508	base $439	+0.5pp $369	+1.0pp $298

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,475
• Closing costs: $8,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $269,900 Active 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $269,900 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,900 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $269,900 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $269,900 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,900 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,900 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $269,900 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $269,900 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $269,900 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $269,900 Active 30 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $269,900 Active 29 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $269,900 Active 28 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $269,900 Active 27 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $269,900 Active 26 DOM
16. 2026-05-05
    listed $269,900 Active
17. 2010-09-24
    historical
18. 2010-08-24
    price Price Change
19. 2010-08-17
    listed New
20. 2005-09-23
    historical 232-char remark

    Show marketing remark (232 chars)

    Fabulous home recently upgraded. New carpet paint 6 panel doors hardware. Custom features throughout, double pain windows, No paneled or plastic walls! All fixtures and sinks new. Ceiling fans every room. Enclosed porch off master

21. 2005-09-01
    soldstatus $106,000 232-char remark

    Show marketing remark (232 chars)

    Fabulous home recently upgraded. New carpet paint 6 panel doors hardware. Custom features throughout, double pain windows, No paneled or plastic walls! All fixtures and sinks new. Ceiling fans every room. Enclosed porch off master

22. 2005-05-31
    listed $105,999 232-char remark

    Show marketing remark (232 chars)

    Fabulous home recently upgraded. New carpet paint 6 panel doors hardware. Custom features throughout, double pain windows, No paneled or plastic walls! All fixtures and sinks new. Ceiling fans every room. Enclosed porch off master

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AE · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 21 unhealthy d/yr today · 23 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,479
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,119
• − Property taxes: −$4,048
• − Insurance: −$6,468
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,318
• − Management: −$3,318
• − Depreciation: −$7,852
• Taxable income: $1,355
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$325
• After-tax cash flow: $4,942/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oakley Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0628080
• Math proficiency: 26% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $77,903
• Composite: 34.04/100
• National rank: #10301
• State rank: #837 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Bethel Island

• Score: 49/100
• State rank: #1166
• US rank: #25883

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment C- Housing C Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bethel Island, CA
• City population: 2,144
• Population (ZIP): 2,144

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 25% Asian 6% Two or more races 3% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Serbian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 20% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.77%
• Current HPI: 312.0698
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+154.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Listed $269,900 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2010-09-24 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2010-08-24 Price Changed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2010-08-17 Listed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2005-09-23 Listing Removed — MLSListings
• 2005-09-01 Sold (MLS) $106,000 MLSListings
• 2005-05-31 Listed $105,999 MLSListings