3405 S Tomahawk Rd #301 · Apache Junction, AZ 85119

$45,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 900 sqft · Manufactured · 79 Days on market

Built 1988 Good condition ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Updated and MOVE-IN READY 55+ HOME IN DENALI PARK! Completely renovated and beautifully refreshed, this inviting home features a brand-new kitchen, new flooring throughout, and new appliances, creating a bright, modern interior that feels clean and comfortable. The open living area offers an easy, functional layout ideal for seasonal or full-time living. Enjoy covered parking, low-maintenance desert landscaping, and a welcoming 55+ community with amenities. Convenient Apache Junction location close to shopping, dining, and local attractions. A fantastic opportunity to own a fully updated home in a desirable community.

Key facts

• New kitchen
• Covered parking
• New flooring

Tags

• NEW KITCHEN
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW APPLIANCES
• COVERED PARKING
• DESERT LANDSCAPING
• APACHE JUNCTION LOCATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Building area source: Owner; Tax year: 2025
• HOA & community: Land lease: $617 monthly; No association fees included; Community pool; Community media room

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered spaces; Common parking; 2 carport spaces
• Utilities: Private water company; Septic (in and connected)
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Leasehold ownership
• Construction: Wood siding; Aluminum siding; Steel frame; Wood frame; Rolled/hot mop roof
• Exterior features: Private yard; Desert front landscaping; Natural desert front; Private maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator included
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (possible)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Eat-in kitchen; No interior steps; Full bathroom in primary bedroom; Low-emissivity windows
• Laundry & utility: Coin-operated laundry in community

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $45k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $708 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $42k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 25.2% vs local median 3.5% in Apache Junction — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#70 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Apache Junction Unified District (4443) (suburban): math 15% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #195 of 249 in AZ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Apache Junction High School (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #267 of 381 statewide, top 72%, 999 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 354 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($42k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $42,300 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.87% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 67.45%
• DSCR: 4.00
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $176,400
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2605 S Tomahawk Rd #99	0.48mi	2/1.5	896 (-0%)	3mo	$28,700	$32	72
2884 S Acacia Rd	0.60mi	3/2.0 (+1)	900 (0%)	0mo	$155,000	$172	63
3700 S Tomahawk Rd #22	0.33mi	3/2.0 (+1)	960 (+7%)	2mo	$57,500	$60	63
2605 S Tomahawk Rd #120	0.43mi	2/2.0	1,000 (+11%)	3mo	$85,000	$85	54
660 Gypsum Dr	0.73mi	2/2.0	820 (-9%)	2mo	$195,000	$238	46
695 Felspar Dr	0.74mi	1/1.5 (-1)	815 (-9%)	0mo	$160,000	$196	42
1517 E 22nd Ave	0.72mi	2/1.0	780 (-13%)	4mo	$160,000	$205	41
591 S Ironstone Dr	0.69mi	1/2.0 (-1)	800 (-11%)	7mo	$210,000	$263	34
611 Ironstone Dr	0.74mi	1/1.5 (-1)	770 (-14%)	1mo	$125,000	$162	34
828 Beryl Dr	0.74mi	1/2.0 (-1)	800 (-11%)	8mo	$180,000	$225	32
759 S Diamond Dr	0.75mi	1/1.5 (-1)	775 (-14%)	8mo	$196,000	$253	29
838 Aquamarine Dr	0.71mi	1/2.0 (-1)	775 (-14%)	8mo	$142,500	$184	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.57% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 65.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.86×
• Total profit: $36,007
• Equity at exit: $6,710

10-year hold

• IRR: 69.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.53×
• Total profit: $82,222
• Equity at exit: $3,891

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85119

• Home prices YoY: -33.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 354
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,290 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$56 /mo · $675/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$271
• Net cashflow: $708

Break-even live

Break-even rent $394

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 40%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $739	-5% $724	+0% $708	+5% $693	+10% $677
Rent	-10% $606	-5% $657	+0% $708	+5% $759	+10% $810
Rate	-1.0pp $731	-0.5pp $720	base $708	+0.5pp $697	+1.0pp $685

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1540 E 25th Ave Apache Junction, AZ	2.0	1.0	850	$995	$1.17	13d	1	0.55mi
501 E Quail Ave Apache Junction, AZ	2.0	1.0	720	$1,150	$1.60	6d	1	1.00mi
501 E Quail Ave Apache Junction, AZ	2.0	1.0	720	$1,150	$1.60	4d	1	1.00mi
403 E Quail Ave Apache Junction, AZ	2.0	1.0	800	$1,350	$1.69	5d	1	1.04mi
2061 S Apache Dr Unit 1 Apache Junction, AZ	2.0	1.0	800	$1,095	$1.37	6d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $45,000 Active 79 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $45,000 Active 78 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $45,000 Active 77 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $45,000 Active 76 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $45,000 Active 74 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $45,000 Active 70 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $45,000 Active 69 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $45,000 Active 68 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $45,000 Active 65 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $45,000 Active 64 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $45,000 Active 63 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    price $45,000 Active 62 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $50,000 Active 62 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $50,000 Active 61 DOM
15. 2026-03-31
    listed $50,000 Active
16. 2026-03-31
    historical
17. 2026-03-25
    price $55,000
18. 2026-03-13
    price $40,000
19. 2026-01-23
    listed $55,000 Active
20. 2025-08-26
    historical
21. 2025-05-30
    price $55,000
22. 2025-03-08
    price $57,700
23. 2024-12-06
    listed $59,700 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥111°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,482
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$675
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,239
• − Management: −$1,239
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $8,275
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,986
• After-tax cash flow: $6,513/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This fully updated 55+ home in Denali Park is move-in ready with a new kitchen, flooring, and appliances, and a fresh exterior. It offers a bright, modern interior and low-maintenance desert landscaping.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Add outdoor lighting — Enhances safety and curb appeal
• Both Install smart home devices — Improves convenience and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Add outdoor lighting — Enhances safety and curb appeal ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Improves convenience and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Apache Junction Unified District (4443)
• NCES district ID: 0400790
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $44,930
• Composite: 15.34/100
• National rank: #9325
• State rank: #195 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Apache Junction

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #70
• US rank: #11242

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 56,611
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 25,420
• Household income: $71,585
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 305.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 12% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -138.19%
• Current HPI: 274.3808
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.57%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-16.2% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $50,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $55,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $40,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-23 Listed $55,000 ARMLS
• 2025-08-26 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-05-30 Price Changed $55,000 ARMLS
• 2025-03-08 Price Changed $57,700 ARMLS
• 2024-12-06 Listed $59,700 ARMLS