3405 S Tomahawk Rd #301 · Apache Junction, AZ 85119

$40,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 900 sqft · Manufactured · 130 Days on market

Manufactured home 55+ age-restricted Built 1988 Good condition $44/sqft · 66% below area ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.5/30.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -4.8

Listing remarks

Updated and MOVE-IN READY 55+ HOME IN DENALI PARK! Completely renovated and beautifully refreshed, this inviting home features a brand-new kitchen, new flooring throughout, and new appliances, creating a bright, modern interior that feels clean and comfortable. The open living area offers an easy, functional layout ideal for seasonal or full-time living. Enjoy covered parking, low-maintenance desert landscaping, and a welcoming 55+ community with amenities. Convenient Apache Junction location close to shopping, dining, and local attractions. A fantastic opportunity to own a fully updated home in a desirable community.

Key facts

• New kitchen
• Covered parking
• New flooring

Tags

• NEW KITCHEN
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW APPLIANCES
• COVERED PARKING
• DESERT LANDSCAPING
• APACHE JUNCTION LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $40k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $539 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $35k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.5% vs local median 3.1% in Apache Junction — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#70 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Apache Junction Unified District (4443) (suburban): math 15% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #195 of 249 in AZ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Peralta Trail Elementary School (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #717 of 1,109 statewide, top 65%, 286 students, 74% FRL); Cactus Canyon Junior High (math 14% / reading 19%, grade F, #151 of 218 statewide, top 70%, 702 students, 50% FRL); Apache Junction High School (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #267 of 381 statewide, top 72%, 999 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 57% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 428 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $277 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 130 days — a 12% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $35,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 130 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.58% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 57.74%
• DSCR: 3.57
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $118,701
• List price: $40,000
• Delta: -66.30%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2605 S Tomahawk Rd #99	0.48mi	2/1.5	896 (-0%)	5mo	$28,700	$32	71
2884 S Acacia Rd	0.60mi	3/2.0 (+1)	900 (0%)	2mo	$155,000	$172	62
3700 S Tomahawk Rd #22	0.33mi	3/2.0 (+1)	960 (+7%)	4mo	$57,500	$60	62
2605 S Tomahawk Rd #120	0.43mi	2/2.0	1,000 (+11%)	5mo	$85,000	$85	53
660 Gypsum Dr	0.73mi	2/2.0	820 (-9%)	4mo	$195,000	$238	44
2206 S Vista Rd	0.72mi	3/2.5 (+1)	960 (+7%)	1mo	$255,000	$266	43
695 Felspar Dr	0.74mi	1/1.5 (-1)	815 (-9%)	2mo	$160,000	$196	41
1517 E 22nd Ave	0.72mi	2/1.0	780 (-13%)	5mo	$160,000	$205	40
591 S Ironstone Dr	0.69mi	1/2.0 (-1)	800 (-11%)	9mo	$210,000	$263	33
611 Ironstone Dr	0.74mi	1/1.5 (-1)	770 (-14%)	2mo	$125,000	$162	33
828 Beryl Dr	0.74mi	1/2.0 (-1)	800 (-11%)	9mo	$180,000	$225	30
759 S Diamond Dr	0.75mi	1/1.5 (-1)	775 (-14%)	9mo	$196,000	$253	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.57% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 54.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.36×
• Total profit: $26,390
• Equity at exit: $5,964

10-year hold

• IRR: 59.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.48×
• Total profit: $61,399
• Equity at exit: $3,458

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 20 active · 7 under contract
• Months of supply: 4.8 mo (21%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $129,900 ($183/sqft)
• Median days on market: 163 d
• This list price: 5% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -27.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 85119

• Home prices YoY: -33.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 428
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,032 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$50 /mo · $600/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$217
• Net cashflow: $539

Break-even live

Break-even rent $350

Max offer price $40,000

Occupancy floor 43%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $567	-5% $553	+0% $539	+5% $525	+10% $511
Rent	-10% $457	-5% $498	+0% $539	+5% $580	+10% $620
Rate	-1.0pp $559	-0.5pp $549	base $539	+0.5pp $528	+1.0pp $518

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1551 E 28th Ave Unit 1 Apache Junction, AZ	2.0	1.0	840	$1,200	$1.43	17d	1	0.31mi
2692 S Yavapai Rd Unit 3 Apache Junction, AZ	2.0	1.0	850	$1,400	$1.65	7d	1	0.44mi
2580 S Yavapai Rd Unit 2 Apache Junction, AZ	2.0	1.0	840	$1,300	$1.55	23d	1	0.50mi
2560 S Yavapai Rd Unit 2 Apache Junction, AZ	2.0	1.0	800	$1,300	$1.62	38d	1	0.52mi
1540 E 25th Ave Apache Junction, AZ	2.0	1.0	850	$995	$1.17	62d	1	0.55mi
878 E Graham Ln Apache Junction, AZ	2.0	2.0	938	$1,595	$1.70	23d	1	0.62mi
501 E Quail Ave Apache Junction, AZ	2.0	1.0	720	$1,150	$1.60	27d	1	1.00mi
501 E Quail Ave Apache Junction, AZ	2.0	1.0	720	$1,150	$1.60	54d	1	1.00mi
457 E Quail Ave Unit 3 Apache Junction, AZ	2.0	1.0	780	$1,250	$1.60	34d	1	1.01mi
403 E Quail Ave Apache Junction, AZ	2.0	1.0	800	$1,350	$1.69	53d	1	1.04mi
499 E Navajo Ave Unit 4 Apache Junction, AZ	2.0	1.0	750	$1,288	$1.72	21d	1	1.11mi
2061 S Apache Dr Unit 1 Apache Junction, AZ	2.0	1.0	800	$995	$1.24	7d	1	1.46mi
2061 S Apache Dr Unit 1 Apache Junction, AZ	2.0	1.0	800	$995	$1.24	21d	1	1.46mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Building area source: OwnerTax year: 2025
• HOA & community: Land lease: $617 monthlyNo association fees includedCommunity poolCommunity media room

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered spacesCommon parking2 carport spaces
• Utilities: Private water companySeptic (in and connected)
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile homeLeasehold ownership
• Construction: Wood sidingAluminum sidingSteel frameWood frameRolled/hot mop roof
• Exterior features: Private yardDesert front landscapingNatural desert frontPrivate maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator included
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (possible)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: High-speed internetEat-in kitchenNo interior stepsFull bathroom in primary bedroomLow-emissivity windows
• Laundry & utility: Coin-operated laundry in community

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $40,000 Active 130 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $40,000 Active 128 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $40,000 Active 127 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $40,000 Active 126 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $40,000 Active 125 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $40,000 Active 122 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $40,000 Active 121 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $40,000 Active 120 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $40,000 Active 119 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $40,000 Active 117 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $40,000 Active 115 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $40,000 Active 114 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $40,000 Active 113 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $40,000 Active 112 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $40,000 Active 111 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $40,000 Active 109 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $40,000 Active 108 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $40,000 Active 107 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    pricedays on market $40,000 Active 106 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $45,000 Active 105 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $45,000 Active 104 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $45,000 Active 103 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $45,000 Active 102 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $45,000 Active 101 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $45,000 Active 100 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $45,000 Active 98 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $45,000 Active 97 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $45,000 Active 96 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $45,000 Active 95 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $45,000 Active 94 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $45,000 Active 93 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $45,000 Active 92 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $45,000 Active 91 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $45,000 Active 90 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $45,000 Active 89 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $45,000 Active 88 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $45,000 Active 87 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $45,000 Active 85 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $45,000 Active 83 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $45,000 Active 82 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $45,000 Active 79 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $45,000 Active 78 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $45,000 Active 77 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $45,000 Active 76 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $45,000 Active 74 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $45,000 Active 70 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $45,000 Active 69 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $45,000 Active 68 DOM
49. 2026-06-04
    days on market $45,000 Active 65 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $45,000 Active 64 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥111°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,384
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$600
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$991
• − Management: −$991
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $6,199
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,488
• After-tax cash flow: $4,979/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $4,500–$13,500 screening

This fully updated 55+ home in Denali Park is move-in ready with a new kitchen, flooring, and appliances, and a fresh exterior. It offers a bright, modern interior and low-maintenance desert landscaping.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Add outdoor lighting — Enhances safety and curb appeal ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Improves convenience and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 18/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Peralta Trail Elementary School F AZ #717/1,109 Nat'l #32,906/41,679 Middle Cactus Canyon Junior High F AZ #151/218 Nat'l #12,406/14,009 High Apache Junction High School F AZ #267/381 Nat'l #15,534/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Apache Junction Unified District (4443)
• NCES district ID: 0400790
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $44,930
• Composite: 15.34/100
• National rank: #9325
• State rank: #195 of 249 in AZ

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Apache Junction

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #70
• US rank: #11242

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pinal County · 437,574 people
• City population: 56,611
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 25,420
• Household income: $71,585
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 12% of renters

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Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 12% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11%

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Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -138.19%
• Current HPI: 274.3808
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.57%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Building area source: OwnerTax year: 2025
• HOA & community: Land lease: $617 monthlyNo association fees includedCommunity poolCommunity media room

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered spacesCommon parking2 carport spaces
• Utilities: Private water companySeptic (in and connected)
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile homeLeasehold ownership
• Construction: Wood sidingAluminum sidingSteel frameWood frameRolled/hot mop roof
• Exterior features: Private yardDesert front landscapingNatural desert frontPrivate maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator included
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (possible)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: High-speed internetEat-in kitchenNo interior stepsFull bathroom in primary bedroomLow-emissivity windows
• Laundry & utility: Coin-operated laundry in community

Price history

-16.2% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $50,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $55,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $40,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-23 Listed $55,000 ARMLS
• 2025-08-26 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-05-30 Price Changed $55,000 ARMLS
• 2025-03-08 Price Changed $57,700 ARMLS
• 2024-12-06 Listed $59,700 ARMLS