261 Cornell Rd · St. Augustine South, FL 32086

$278,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,172 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1982 7,840 sqft lot Est $361k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Looking for a house you can transform into your dream home while building instant equity? Or searching for your next investment project? This is the one for you! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home is located in one of St. Augustine's most established and desirable areas, offering the perfect combination of solid bones and unlimited potential. With a little TLC and vision, this property can be customized to fit your needs, whether as a primary residence, rental property, or renovation project. Opportunities like this are hard to find in today's market. With significant upside potential and room to add value, this home presents one of the best opportunities in Northeast Florida. Schedule your sho

Key facts

• 7,840 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1982

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Cable available; Electricity available; Water available
• Home design: Single family residence; Used as a residential single-family home
• Exterior features: Private lot of about 0.18 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Multi-unit cooling; Split system cooling
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $278k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5 ($59/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (22.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $217k (22.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.1% in St. Augustine South — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Osceola Elementary School (math 63% / reading 57%, grade B-, #680 of 2,144 statewide, top 32%, 703 students, 64% FRL); R J Murray Middle School (math 54% / reading 54%, grade B-, #196 of 571 statewide, top 36%, 695 students, 50% FRL); Pedro Menendez High School (math 31% / reading 54%, grade F, #264 of 667 statewide, top 41%, 1,519 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 20% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 52% at this address vs 74% district-wide (-22 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the St. Johns average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 407 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $217,228 (22.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.08%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $360,976
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
321 Harvard Rd	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,258 (+7%)	4mo	$390,000	$310	78
133 Mohegan Rd	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,184 (+1%)	8mo	$365,000	$308	74
212 Yale Rd	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,312 (+12%)	3mo	$450,000	$343	70
229 Bonita Rd	0.31mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,122 (-4%)	6mo	$150,000	$134	64
120 Swallow Rd	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,150 (-2%)	5mo	$375,000	$326	63
137 Segovia Rd	0.32mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,111 (-5%)	7mo	$255,000	$230	61
110 Dory Rd	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,254 (+7%)	11mo	$345,000	$275	60
207 Warbler Rd	0.66mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (-2%)	5mo	$307,300	$267	58
110 Moultrie Village Ln	0.48mi	3/2.5	1,344 (+15%)	3mo	$219,388	$163	49
307 Warbler	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,250 (+7%)	14mo	$265,000	$212	46
125 Gentian Rd	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,056 (-10%)	14mo	$332,000	$314	43
221 Queen Rd	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,340 (+14%)	13mo	$425,000	$317	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.85% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-49,517
• Equity at exit: $41,525

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-61,198
• Equity at exit: $24,080

Cash invested: $77,980 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32086

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 407
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,172 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,460
• Tax from tax record: −$135 /mo · $1,616/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$456
• Net cashflow: $5

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,166

Max offer price $278,500

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $163	-5% $84	+0% $5	+5% $-74	+10% $-153
Rent	-10% $-167	-5% $-81	+0% $5	+5% $91	+10% $177
Rate	-1.0pp $145	-0.5pp $76	base $5	+0.5pp $-67	+1.0pp $-141

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,625
• Closing costs: $8,355
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
253 Cowry Rd Saint Augustine, FL	3.0	2.5	1375	$1,995	$1.45	25d	1	0.33mi
70 Ridge Lake Rd Saint Augustine, FL	3.0	2.5	1470	$2,025	$1.38	25d	1	0.47mi
129 Moultrie Village Ln Saint Augustine, FL	2.0	2.5	1384	$1,750	$1.26	21d	1	0.51mi
117 Ridge Lake Rd Saint Augustine, FL	3.0	2.5	1471	$2,200	$1.50	9d	1	0.51mi
421 S Hidden Tree Dr Saint Augustine, FL	3.0	2.0	1344	$2,100	$1.56	25d	1	0.52mi
93 Palma Dr Saint Augustine, FL	2.0–4.0	2.5	1506	$2,272	$1.51	4d	18	0.86mi
604 Alicante Rd Saint Augustine, FL	3.0	2.0	1455	$2,200	$1.51	19d	1	0.89mi
113 Pamplona Dr Saint Augustine, FL	2.0	2.5	1273	$2,095	$1.65	25d	1	0.94mi
1845 Old Moultrie Rd #32 Saint Augustine, FL	2.0	1.0	870	$1,650	$1.90	25d	1	1.15mi
29 Buckley Ct Saint Augustine, FL	2.0	2.5	1211	$2,300	$1.90	25d	1	1.22mi
105 Whitland Way Unit 1 St. Augustine, FL	3.0	2.5	1499	$2,300	$1.53	5d	1	1.29mi
890 Poinsettia Rd Unit B St. Augustine, FL	2.0	2.0	1032	$1,590	$1.54	25d	1	1.44mi
29207 Harbour Vista Cir Saint Augustine, FL	2.0	2.0	1240	$1,700	$1.37	25d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $278,500 Pending 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $278,500 Active Under Contract 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $278,500 Active Under Contract 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   statusdays on market $278,500 Active Under Contract 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $278,500 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $278,500 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   listed $278,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,616 · $135/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,312 · $193/mo
• Expected delta: +$695/yr (+$58/mo · 43.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,067
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,600
• − Property taxes: −$1,616
• − Insurance: −$1,392
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,085
• − Management: −$2,085
• − Depreciation: −$8,102
• Taxable loss: −$4,814
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,155
• After-tax cash flow: $1,214/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Johns
• NCES district ID: 1201740
• Math proficiency: 75% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,842
• Composite: 64.31/100
• National rank: #556
• State rank: #2 of 73 in FL

Livability — St. Augustine South

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Augustine South, FL
• County: Saint Johns County · 301,599 people
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 34,855
• Household income: $76,512
• Rent vs Own: 20.8% rent · 79.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 634.0

Population outlook (St. Johns County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 303,941 people
• By 2030: 342,590 · +12.7%
• By 2040: 417,328 · +37.3%
• By 2050: 487,011 · +60.2%
• By 2075: 635,395 · +109.1%
• By 2100: 717,469 · +136.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Johns

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.9% · R 65.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: -31.6pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+33.4 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+31.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -278.21%
• Current HPI: 306.2813
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.85%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+440.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $278,500 realMLS
• 2006-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $246,200 Public Records
• 2001-10-10 Sold (Public Records) $121,500 Public Records
• 1982-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $51,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,616 · +16.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.