201 Arbutus St · Rochester, NY 14609

$149,900

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,180 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1951 6,000 sqft lot Est $172k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.3/15.0
• DSCR +9.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to 201 Arbutus st. A Charming 4-Bedroom Cape Cod with standout curb appeal, a nicely updated kitchen that features a center island perfect for meal prep, entertaining, or everyday living. Enjoy the convenience of a first floor bedroom with first floor full bathroom. Second bedroom on first floor ideal for guest room, dining room, or office space. Upstairs you will find two additional nice sized bedrooms. Step outside to a fully fenced yard, offering privacy and space for outdoor gatherings, pets, or play. This home blends classic character with modern comfort- dont miss your chance to make it yours! Delayed Negotiations for April 30th @12pm

Key facts

• Updated kitchen
• Fully fenced yard
• First floor bedroom

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• FIRST FLOOR BEDROOM
• FULLY FENCED YARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Two garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story home; Existing construction
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Spray foam insulation; Asphalt roof; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Fully fenced yard; Rectangular residential lot approximately 50 x 120; Near public transit; City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Two main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Hardwood; Carpet; Laminate; Varies
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom (one main-level bathroom)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen with kitchen island and quartz countertops; Varied flooring including carpet, hardwood and laminate; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in basement; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $465 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#222 in NY, #3,482 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, employment F.
• Rochester City School District (urban): math 21% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #589 of 590 in NY (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.9%/yr); 199 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,169 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (591 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.9% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $149,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.29%
• DSCR: 1.59
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $172,280
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
201 Arbutus St	0.00mi	4/1.5	1,180 (0%)	0mo	$210,000	$178	100
1824 Clifford Ave	0.35mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,188 (+1%)	2mo	$62,500	$53	74
1542 N Goodman St	0.25mi	4/2.0	1,340 (+14%)	0mo	$205,000	$153	64
265 Springfield Ave	0.51mi	4/1.5	1,268 (+8%)	0mo	$200,000	$158	63
116 Barberry	0.63mi	4/2.0	1,220 (+3%)	2mo	$175,000	$143	61
157 Cummings St	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,272 (+8%)	2mo	$250,000	$197	58
865 N Goodman St	0.70mi	4/1.5	1,245 (+6%)	2mo	$76,000	$61	57
298 Fieldwood Dr	0.54mi	4/2.0	1,320 (+12%)	2mo	$193,000	$146	52
1863 Norton St	0.59mi	4/1.0	1,326 (+12%)	2mo	$155,000	$117	48
62 Sylvester St	0.53mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,036 (-12%)	2mo	$195,000	$188	48
281 Ellison St	0.46mi	4/3.0	1,350 (+14%)	0mo	$184,000	$136	48
51 Sylvester St	0.52mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,040 (-12%)	2mo	$90,000	$87	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.89% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.35×
• Total profit: $14,528
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.21×
• Total profit: $92,598
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14609

• Home prices YoY: -30.4%
• Rents YoY: 7.9%
• Active inventory: 199
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,788 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$99 /mo · $1,192/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$376
• Net cashflow: $465

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,200

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
326 Northland Ave Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1168	$1,500	$1.28	3d	1	0.23mi
47 Priscilla St Rochester, NY	4.0	1.5	1250	$1,900	$1.52	21d	1	0.38mi
1890 Clifford Ave Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	936	$1,800	$1.92	23d	1	0.40mi
52 Frances St Rochester, NY	4.0	1.0	1256	$1,595	$1.27	44d	1	0.56mi
171 Mohawk St Rochester, NY	3.0	2.0	1054	$1,775	$1.68	44d	1	0.67mi
25 Trust St Rochester, NY	3.0	1.5	1003	$1,600	$1.60	3d	1	0.68mi
147 5th St Rochester, NY	4.0	1.0	1289	$1,950	$1.51	21d	1	0.80mi
176 Roycroft Dr Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1169	$950	$0.81	10d	1	0.88mi
117 Northaven Ter Rochester, NY	4.0	2.0	1460	$1,975	$1.35	10d	1	0.89mi
195 Parsells Ave Rochester, NY	4.0	1.0	1413	$1,265	$0.90	3d	1	1.02mi
420 Rosewood Ter Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1246	$1,300	$1.04	3d	1	1.06mi
2450 Culver Rd Rochester, NY	3.0	1.5	1380	$2,400	$1.74	3d	1	1.14mi
1159 Culver Rd Unit A2 UP Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1313	$1,500	$1.14	44d	1	1.18mi
239 Weyl St Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1208	$1,600	$1.32	19d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-24
   listed $149,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,192 · $99/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,863 · $155/mo
• Expected delta: +$671/yr (+$56/mo · 56.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,461
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$1,192
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,717
• − Management: −$1,717
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $3,328
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$799
• After-tax cash flow: $4,781/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rochester City School District
• NCES district ID: 3624750
• Math proficiency: 21% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $30,923
• Composite: 18.98/100
• National rank: #8850
• State rank: #589 of 590 in NY

Livability — Rochester

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #3482

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rochester, NY
• County: Monroe County · 674,131 people
• City population: 432,803
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• Population (ZIP): 40,274
• Household income: $64,603
• Rent vs Own: 36.1% rent · 63.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2183.0

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 759,460 people
• By 2030: 757,154 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 740,644 · -2.5%
• By 2050: 714,443 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 645,883 · -15.0%
• By 2100: 547,084 · -28.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 28% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 15% Cuban 1% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 14% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: D (+19.1) · D 59.5% · R 40.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.4pp toward D · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 19.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.1 2020: D+21.0 2016: D+14.1 2012: D+17.4 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -143.57%
• Current HPI: 328.7053
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.89%
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $149,900 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+8.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,192 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.