890 Vagabond Ave SW · Ocean Shores, WA 98569

$250,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,377 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 90 Days on market

Built 2009 7,150 sqft lot $182/sqft · 43% below area Est $442k · 43% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.6/30.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

A beautiful home in a pristine Ocean Shores neighborhood for a great price! Built in 2009, the house features modern building materials and design, with the major systems in good shape. The home features three bedrooms, two full bathrooms, and an open living area. Additional highlights include vaulted ceilings, bay windows, and a two-car garage. The house is priced below its tax-assessed value due to some deferred cosmetic maintenance. This is a great opportunity to earn some easy equity in your dream beach house.

Key facts

• 7,150 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 2009

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $58 ($691/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (15.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $211k (15.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.1% in Ocean Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#424 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, health & safety C-.
• North Beach School District (rural): math 32% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #236 of 291 in WA (top 81%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 653 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 297 units permitted in Grays Harbor County in 2024 (17 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grays Harbor County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $22k; list at $250k implies a 1039% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $211,407 (15.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.99%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $442,103
• List price: $250,000
• Delta: -43.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
634 Island Cir SE	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,495 (+9%)	0mo	$410,000	$274	71
265 Oyhut Bay Blvd SW	0.42mi	3/0.5	1,415 (+3%)	1mo	$690,000	$488	69
441 Laurel Ct SW	0.42mi	3/2.5	1,453 (+6%)	7mo	$775,581	$534	63
789 Island Cir SE	0.29mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,228 (-11%)	1mo	$405,000	$330	63
286 Seashore St SW	0.55mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,335 (-3%)	2mo	$393,000	$294	63
646 Island Cir SE	0.27mi	2/3.0 (-1)	1,514 (+10%)	0mo	$589,000	$389	62
420 Elderberry Ln SW	0.43mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,260 (-8%)	0mo	$527,775	$419	58
998 Cascade Ave SW	0.48mi	3/2.5	1,475 (+7%)	7mo	$465,000	$315	58
311 Otsego St SW	0.53mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,464 (+6%)	5mo	$410,000	$280	55
1045 Tonquin Ave SW	0.32mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (-13%)	4mo	$368,000	$307	55
193 Marine View Dr SE	0.62mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,320 (-4%)	7mo	$641,800	$486	53
810 Discovery Ave SE	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,558 (+13%)	3mo	$285,000	$183	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-36,880
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-27,548
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98569

• Home prices YoY: -3.4%
• Active inventory: 653
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,114 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$197 /mo · $2,368/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$444
• Net cashflow: $58

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,041

Max offer price $250,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
677 Lake Island Ave SE Ocean Shores, WA	3.0	2.0	1352	$2,600	$1.92	43d	1	0.81mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $250,000 Active 90 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $250,000 Active 89 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $250,000 Active 88 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $250,000 Active 87 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $250,000 Active 86 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $250,000 Active 84 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $250,000 Active 83 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $285,000 Active 80 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $285,000 Active 79 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $285,000 Active 78 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $285,000 Active 75 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $285,000 Active 74 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $285,000 Active 73 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $285,000 Active 72 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $285,000 Active 71 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $285,000 Active 70 DOM
17. 2026-03-21
    listed $299,000 Active
18. 2007-04-04
    soldstatus $21,941
19. 2005-07-26
    soldstatus $19,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,368 · $197/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,450 · $204/mo
• Expected delta: +$82/yr (+$7/mo · 3.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥72°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,369
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$2,368
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,030
• − Management: −$2,030
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$3,584
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$860
• After-tax cash flow: $1,552/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Beach School District
• NCES district ID: 5305700
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $40,966
• Composite: 34.46/100
• National rank: #10153
• State rank: #236 of 291 in WA

Livability — Ocean Shores

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #424
• US rank: #16852

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime C- Employment C Housing A Health & safety C- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ocean Shores, WA
• County: Grays Harbor County · 44,693 people
• City population: 7,187
• Metro: Aberdeen, WA
• Population (ZIP): 7,489
• Household income: $58,378
• Rent vs Own: 17.0% rent · 83.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 172.0

Population outlook (Grays Harbor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 66,443 people
• By 2030: 63,255 · -4.8%
• By 2040: 56,466 · -15.0%
• By 2050: 50,516 · -24.0%
• By 2075: 39,296 · -40.9%
• By 2100: 31,142 · -53.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3% Native American 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 8% Iranian 5% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Grays Harbor

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.0) · D 45.6% · R 51.6% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 14.6pp · 2024: -6.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.0 2020: R+6.6 2016: R+7.1 2012: D+14.0 2008: D+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -13.33%
• Current HPI: 380.05
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Aberdeen, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+1433.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-21 Listed $299,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-04-04 Sold (Public Records) $21,941 Public Records
• 2005-07-26 Sold (Public Records) $19,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+14.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,368 · -0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.