14658 Lincoln Ave · Dolton, IL
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $473 – $860
Fire risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $804 – $1,492
Heat risk 3/10 · Minor
- Hot days now (above 101°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 15 days/yr
Wind risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk 4/10 · Minor
- Unhealthy air days now
- 4 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 5 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the C grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +25.3/30.0
- 1% rule +8.4/10.0
- DSCR +8.3/10.0
- ARV discount +5.2/15.0
- Rent growth +4.9/5.0
- Livability +3.7/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Schools +0.7/10.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$139,900
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
Why rent when you can own. Huge fenced backyard!. Lots of counter space. Eat-in kitchen area and combined living room/dining room area. Separate laundry room in the utility room. Detached 2 car garage . Property Sold " As Is"
Key facts
- Eat-in kitchen
- 0.25 acre lot
- Garage
Tags
Property features AI
Finance
- Other: Taxes listed (annual amount available in records); Parcel number available in records; Directions: intersection of Lincoln and Dobson
- HOA & community: No master association fee required; Community features include sidewalks, street lights and paved streets
Exterior
- Parking: Detached garage (owned) with garage door opener; Gravel and off-street parking; Total of about 3 parking spaces, including 1 garage space
- Utilities: Lake Michigan and public water supply; Public sewer
- Home design: Detached single-family home; One-story; Fee simple ownership; Property was rehabbed in 2022; Built approximately 71–80 years ago; Property currently leased
- Construction: Vinyl siding and brick exterior; Asphalt roof; Other-type foundation; Home built before 1978
- Exterior features: Patio; Fenced yard; Corner lot; Lot dimensions roughly 31 x 125 x 56 x 91 x 123
Interior
- Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Kitchen with eating area/table space (approx. 20 x 11)
- Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (all on the main level); Master bedroom with blinds; Bedroom sizes include 10 x 13, 10 x 12, and 8 x 12
- Flooring: Ceramic tile in living room, dining area, kitchen and master bedroom; Ceramic tile in one bedroom; Vinyl flooring in one bedroom; Other flooring in laundry room
- Bathrooms: One full bathroom
- Heating & cooling: Natural gas and electric heating; Wall-mounted cooling units
- Interior features: Six total rooms; Combined dining and living area; School bus service and easy interstate/commuter bus access
- Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room (approx. 5 x 9)
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $318 ($4k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
- Recommended offer: $138k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 74/100 on livability (#263 in IL, #4,883 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, schools F.
- Thornton Twp Hsd 205 (suburban): math 7% / reading 8% proficiency, ranked #594 of 620 in IL (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
- Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.7%/yr); 130 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,272 units permitted in Cook County in 2024 (4,658 in 5+ unit buildings).
- This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($138k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 6 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
- Current owner paid $75k; list at $140k implies a 87% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price; built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Questions for the listing agent
- Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.34% ✓
- Cap rate
- 9.02%
- Cash-on-cash
- 9.74%
- DSCR
- 1.43
- GRM
- 6.2
CMA / ARV
- ARV (on-the-fly)
- $133,182
- Comps found
- 12
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14840 Langley Ave | 0.50mi | 2/1.0 | 936 (+3%) | 2mo | $37,000 | $40 | 69 |
| 14647 Irving Ave | 0.54mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 889 (-2%) | 2mo | $138,000 | $155 | 61 |
| 14731 Kimbark Ave | 0.35mi | 3/1.0 (+1) | 1,017 (+12%) | 2mo | $115,000 | $113 | 56 |
| 14915 Irving Ave | 0.61mi | 2/1.0 | 980 (+8%) | 4mo | $68,000 | $69 | 55 |
| 14642 Dorchester Ave | 0.44mi | 3/1.0 (+1) | 1,013 (+12%) | 1mo | $170,000 | $168 | 54 |
| 14622 Kenwood Ave | 0.38mi | 3/1.0 (+1) | 1,017 (+12%) | 5mo | $110,000 | $108 | 53 |
| 14728 Kenwood Ave | 0.39mi | 3/1.0 (+1) | 1,017 (+12%) | 5mo | $156,000 | $153 | 52 |
| 14819 Irving Ave | 0.56mi | 3/1.0 (+1) | 980 (+8%) | 4mo | $130,000 | $133 | 52 |
| 14341 University Ave | 0.43mi | 3/1.0 (+1) | 1,035 (+14%) | 1mo | $100,000 | $97 | 50 |
| 14610 Blackstone Ave | 0.57mi | 3/1.0 (+1) | 1,017 (+12%) | 1mo | $150,000 | $147 | 47 |
| 14738 Blackstone Ave | 0.57mi | 3/1.0 (+1) | 1,017 (+12%) | 1mo | $150,000 | $147 | 47 |
| 14248 Avalon Ave | 0.57mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,037 (+14%) | 6mo | $216,000 | $208 | 35 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 4.7%
- Equity multiple
- 1.19×
- Total profit
- $7,596
- Equity at exit
- $20,860
- IRR
- 18.8%
- Equity multiple
- 3.00×
- Total profit
- $78,231
- Equity at exit
- $12,096
Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
- State Illinois
- 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 60419
- Home prices YoY
- -25.7%
- Rents YoY
- 9.7%
- Active inventory
- 130
- Price-to-rent
- 6.2×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $1,869 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$734
- Tax from tax record
- −$367 /mo · $4,402/yr
- Insurance
- −$58
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$393
- Net cashflow
- $318
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $397 | -5% $357 | +0% $318 | +5% $278 | +10% $239 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $170 | -5% $244 | +0% $318 | +5% $392 | +10% $465 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $388 | -0.5pp $353 | base $318 | +0.5pp $282 | +1.0pp $245 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $34,975
- Closing costs
- $4,197
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 18 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14502 Cottage Grove Ave Unit 1S Dolton, IL | 1.0 | 1.0 | 900 | $1,425 | $1.58 | 8d | 1 | 0.42mi |
| 14500 Cottage Grove Ave Unit 3 Dolton, IL | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1000 | $1,475 | $1.48 | 25d | 1 | 0.42mi |
| 14817 Champlain Ave Dolton, IL | 2.0 | 1.0 | 980 | $2,430 | $2.48 | 22d | 1 | 0.50mi |
| 14738 Blackstone Ave Dolton, IL | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1017 | $2,400 | $2.36 | 10d | 1 | 0.57mi |
| 14610 Blackstone Ave Dolton, IL | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1017 | $2,400 | $2.36 | 7d | 1 | 0.57mi |
| 14305 Irving Ave Unit 2 Dolton, IL | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1100 | $2,200 | $2.00 | 25d | 1 | 0.72mi |
| 495 Madison Ave Unit 1D Calumet City, IL | 1.0 | 1.0 | 595 | $1,175 | $1.97 | 14d | 1 | 1.00mi |
| 1450 E 154th Pl Dolton, IL | 1.0 | 1.0 | 800 | $1,250 | $1.56 | 25d | 1 | 1.09mi |
| 15238 Doctor Martin Luther King Junior Dr Unit 2W Dolton, IL | 2.0 | 1.0 | 800 | $1,500 | $1.88 | 11d | 1 | 1.09mi |
| 405 Clyde Ave Calumet City, IL | 3.0 | 1.0 | 973 | $2,300 | $2.36 | 2d | 1 | 1.11mi |
| 1860 State St Calumet City, IL | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1100 | $1,800 | $1.64 | 18d | 1 | 1.12mi |
| 15324 Doctor Martin Luther King Junior Dr Unit 1B Dolton, IL | 1.0 | 1.0 | 725 | $985 | $1.36 | 19d | 1 | 1.15mi |
| 101 Oglesby Ave Calumet City, IL | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1000 | $1,800 | $1.80 | 22d | 1 | 1.43mi |
| 101 Oglesby Ave Calumet City, IL | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1100 | $1,800 | $1.64 | 12d | 1 | 1.43mi |
| 101 Oglesby Ave Calumet City, IL | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1000 | $1,800 | $1.80 | 20d | 1 | 1.43mi |
| 13841 Forest Ave Dolton, IL | 3.0 | 1.0 | 930 | $1,895 | $2.04 | 25d | 1 | 1.43mi |
| 250 Yates Ave Unit 1616 Dolton 1E Calumet City, IL | 2.0 | 1.0 | 875 | $1,465 | $1.67 | 8d | 1 | 1.44mi |
| 1601 Downs Dr Unit 3S Calumet City, IL | 2.0 | 1.0 | 750 | $1,400 | $1.87 | 25d | 1 | 1.46mi |
Listing history 37 events
-
2026-06-18days on market $139,900 Active 17 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $139,900 Active 16 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $139,900 Active 15 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $139,900 Active 14 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $139,900 Active 12 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $139,900 Active 11 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $139,900 Active 8 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $139,900 Active 7 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $139,900 Active 6 DOM
-
2026-06-04days on market $139,900 Active 3 DOM
-
2026-06-03days on market $139,900 Active 2 DOM
-
2026-06-02pricedays on market $139,900 Active 1 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $144,900 Active 54 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $144,900 Active 53 DOM
-
2026-04-08$144,900 Active
-
2026-04-08historical
-
2026-03-19Active
-
2022-03-16price $1,650
-
2021-10-05soldstatus $75,000
-
2021-09-30soldstatus $75,000 Closed 237-char remark
Show marketing remark (237 chars)
Why rent when you can own. Huge fenced backyard!. Lots of counter space. Eat-in kitchen area and combined living room/dining room area. Separate laundry room in the utility room. Detached 2 car garage . Property Sold " As Is"
-
2021-08-10status Active Under Contract 237-char remark
Show marketing remark (237 chars)
Why rent when you can own. Huge fenced backyard!. Lots of counter space. Eat-in kitchen area and combined living room/dining room area. Separate laundry room in the utility room. Detached 2 car garage . Property Sold " As Is"
-
2021-07-22$90,000 Active 237-char remark
Show marketing remark (237 chars)
Why rent when you can own. Huge fenced backyard!. Lots of counter space. Eat-in kitchen area and combined living room/dining room area. Separate laundry room in the utility room. Detached 2 car garage . Property Sold " As Is"
-
2019-10-25soldstatus $30,000 Closed Sale
-
2019-09-04status Pending
-
2019-09-04status Reactivated
-
2019-08-16historical Contingent
-
2019-08-16historical
-
2019-07-08price $49,900
-
2019-07-05price $52,500
-
2019-07-03status Reactivated
-
2019-06-24historical
-
2019-05-28price $59,900
-
2019-04-23price $65,000
-
2019-04-04price $69,000
-
2019-03-12$69,900 New
-
2007-01-11soldstatus $100,000
-
1990-04-01soldstatus $49,500
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)
- Current annual tax
- $4,402 · $367/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $4,402 · $367/mo
- Expected delta
- $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 1/10 Low
- Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 2/10 Low
- Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $22,430
- − Mortgage interest
- −$7,837
- − Property taxes
- −$4,402
- − Insurance
- −$700
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,794
- − Management
- −$1,794
- − Depreciation
- −$4,070
- Taxable income
- $1,833
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$440
- After-tax cash flow
- $3,374/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Thornton Twp Hsd 205
- NCES district ID
- 1738970
- Math proficiency
- 7% ▬ 0.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 8% ▼ -2.00%
- Median HH income
- $43,392
- Composite
- 6.92/100
- National rank
- #9976
- State rank
- #594 of 620 in IL
Livability — Dolton
- Score
- 74/100
- State rank
- #263
- US rank
- #4883
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Dolton, IL
- County
- Cook County · 4,486,803 people
- City population
- 20,825
- Metro
- Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
- Population (ZIP)
- 20,825
- Household income
- $57,887
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 919.0
Population outlook (Cook County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 5,347,519 people
- By 2030
- 5,357,703 · +0.2%
- By 2040
- 5,324,924 · -0.4%
- By 2050
- 5,230,762 · -2.2%
- By 2075
- 4,785,735 · -10.5%
- By 2100
- 4,188,836 · -21.7%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly Black (91%)
- Race & ethnicity
- Black 91% White 4% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
- Common ancestry
- Romanian 1% Hispanic 1%
- Foreign-born
- 3% · Canada
- Languages at home
- 95% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Spanish 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Cook
- 2024 margin
- Solid D (+42.0) · D 70.4% · R 28.4% · Other 1.2%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -11.4pp toward R · 2008: 53.4pp · 2024: 42.0pp
- All cycles
- 2024: D+42.0 2020: D+50.3 2016: D+53.0 2012: D+49.4 2008: D+53.4
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -66.88%
- Current HPI
- 193.2346
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 9.65%
- Metro
- Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 1.59%
- F500 in state
- 60
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Insurance | 4 | $201B |
|
||
| Consumer Goods | 4 | $87B |
|
||
| Industrial Machinery | 3 | $64B |
|
||
| Healthcare | 2 | $55B |
|
||
| Retail / Pharmacy | 1 | $148B |
|
||
| Agriculture / Food | 1 | $86B |
|
||
Price history
+192.7% since first listed23 events — show timeline
- 2026-04-08 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2026-04-08 Listed $144,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2026-03-19 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2022-03-16 Price Changed $1,650 RENT.
- 2021-10-05 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
- 2021-09-30 Sold (MLS) $75,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2021-08-10 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2021-07-22 Listed $90,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2019-10-25 Sold (MLS) $30,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2019-09-04 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2019-09-04 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2019-08-16 Contingent — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2019-08-16 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2019-07-08 Price Changed $49,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2019-07-05 Price Changed $52,500 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2019-07-03 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2019-06-24 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2019-05-28 Price Changed $59,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2019-04-23 Price Changed $65,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2019-04-04 Price Changed $69,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2019-03-12 Listed $69,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2007-01-11 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
- 1990-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $49,500 Public Records
Property tax history
+1.7%/yrLatest (2023): $4,402 · +30.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…