14018 Broken Arrow Dr · Willis, TX 77378

$185,500

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,518 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 54 Days on market

Built 1985 7,200 sqft lot Est $209k · 11% under $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.6/30.0
• ARV discount +12.7/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fannie Mae Homepath property - 2 story home in Indian Forest. 3 bedroom, 2.5 baths, fenced back yard. Good sized living room with fireplace, formal dining area. Just a few minutes from downtown Willis and I45. Shopping and schools nearby.

Key facts

• Stainless appliances
• Storage shed
• Flex room

Tags

• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• BREAKFAST AREA
• FLEX ROOM
• FENCED BACKYARD
• STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association managed by IMC Property Management; Annual association fee of $300

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1985; Slab foundation
• Construction: Composition roof; Unknown construction materials
• Exterior features: Back yard fence; Storage; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Disposal; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on second floor (14x11); Bedroom on second floor (14x10); Bedroom on second floor (10x9)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Granite counters; Primary bedroom with private bath; Tub with shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $186k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $179 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $186k).
• Recommended offer: $180k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 4.7% in Willis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#933 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lynn Lucas Middle (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 971 students, 74% FRL); Willis H S (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,521 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 710 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($180k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $77k; list at $186k implies a 140% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $179,935 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.15%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $209,484
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14018 Broken Arrow Dr	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,518 (0%)	1mo	$185,500	$122	100
14088 Running Bear Dr	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,498 (-1%)	5mo	$209,000	$140	91
13730 Running Bear Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,507 (-1%)	1mo	$225,000	$149	90
13744 Bighorn Trl	0.12mi	3/2.5	1,498 (-1%)	4mo	$200,000	$134	89
5453 N Buffalo Cir	0.28mi	3/2.5	1,498 (-1%)	3mo	$239,000	$160	83
14105 Broken Arrow Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,576 (+4%)	6mo	$169,000	$107	81
13653 Bighorn Trl	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,507 (-1%)	6mo	$210,000	$139	80
8853 E Buffalo Cir	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,290 (-15%)	1mo	$154,000	$119	64
8962 W Buffalo Cir	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,330 (-12%)	6mo	$215,000	$162	60
5445 N Buffalo Cir	0.29mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,738 (+14%)	0mo	$177,500	$102	57
13604 Bighorn Trl	0.32mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,738 (+14%)	1mo	$239,000	$138	55
13669 Running Bear Dr	0.28mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,738 (+14%)	5mo	$225,000	$129	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-22,332
• Equity at exit: $27,659

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-19,314
• Equity at exit: $16,039

Cash invested: $51,940 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77378

• Home prices YoY: -3.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 710
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,880 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$973
• Tax from tax record: −$231 /mo · $2,771/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$395
• Net cashflow: $179

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,653

Max offer price $185,500

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,375
• Closing costs: $5,565
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14107 Running Bear Dr Willis, TX	4.0	2.0	1328	$1,800	$1.36	24d	1	0.12mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-10
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-01
   status Pending
3. 2026-04-14
   price $185,500
4. 2026-03-16
   listed $199,900 Active
5. 2024-10-16
   historical $1,495
6. 2024-10-07
   listed $1,495
7. 2012-05-02
   soldstatus 238-char remark

   Show marketing remark (238 chars)

   Fannie Mae Homepath property - 2 story home in Indian Forest. 3 bedroom, 2.5 baths, fenced back yard. Good sized living room with fireplace, formal dining area. Just a few minutes from downtown Willis and I45. Shopping and schools nearby.

8. 2012-04-20
   historical 238-char remark

   Show marketing remark (238 chars)

   Fannie Mae Homepath property - 2 story home in Indian Forest. 3 bedroom, 2.5 baths, fenced back yard. Good sized living room with fireplace, formal dining area. Just a few minutes from downtown Willis and I45. Shopping and schools nearby.

9. 2012-02-08
   listed $63,900 238-char remark

   Show marketing remark (238 chars)

   Fannie Mae Homepath property - 2 story home in Indian Forest. 3 bedroom, 2.5 baths, fenced back yard. Good sized living room with fireplace, formal dining area. Just a few minutes from downtown Willis and I45. Shopping and schools nearby.

10. 2012-01-10
    soldstatus $77,353
11. 1994-07-22
    soldstatus $75,810

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,771 · $231/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,395 · $283/mo
• Expected delta: +$624/yr (+$52/mo · 22.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,564
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,391
• − Property taxes: −$2,771
• − Insurance: −$928
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,805
• − Management: −$1,805
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$5,396
• Taxable loss: −$832
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$200
• After-tax cash flow: $2,353/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Willis

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #933
• US rank: #16579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 38,421
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,629
• Household income: $71,143
• Rent vs Own: 25.5% rent · 74.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 402.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 19%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.25%
• Current HPI: 261.9673
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.98%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+144.7% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $185,500 HARMLS
• 2026-03-16 Listed $199,900 HARMLS
• 2024-10-16 Rental Removed $1,495 HARMLS
• 2024-10-07 Listed for Rent $1,495 HARMLS
• 2012-05-02 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2012-04-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2012-02-08 Listed $63,900 HARMLS
• 2012-01-10 Sold (Public Records) $77,353 Public Records
• 1994-07-22 Sold (Public Records) $75,810 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,771 · -1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.