733 E Earling Rd · San Juan, TX 78589

$118,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 157 Days on market

Built 1979 0.31 ac lot $98/sqft · 38% below area Est $190k · 38% under ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.7/10.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover the potential of this 3-bedroom, 1-bath home located at 733 E Earling Rd, San Juan, TX 78589. Featuring a great-sized layout on an almost one-third acre lot, this property offers exceptional space and versatility. While the home could use some updates, its prime location near the expanding Nolana corridor—an area seeing major commercial growth and development—makes it a smart investment opportunity. Whether you’re looking to renovate and flip, build your dream home, or explore the potential for commercial rezoning and use (buyer to verify zoning and requirements), this property is full of possibilities. Conveniently close to schools, shopping, dining, and with easy access to Expressway 83, this is a rare chance to secure a property in one of San Juan’s most promising areas. Don’t wait—schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Prime location
• 0.31 acre lot
• Built 1979

Tags

• ALMOST ONE-THIRD ACRE LOT
• PRIME LOCATION
• EASY ACCESS TO EXPRESSWAY 83

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $118k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $354 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $118k).
• Recommended offer: $104k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 3.4% in San Juan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#294 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Pharr-San Juan-Alamo ISD (suburban): math 18% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #740 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 362 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $816 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 157 days — a 12% lower offer ($104k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $17k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $103,840 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 157 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.87%
• DSCR: 1.57
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $189,778
• List price: $118,000
• Delta: -37.82%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
728 San Ignacio St	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,302 (+8%)	4mo	$170,172	$131	69
726 San Ignacio St	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,319 (+10%)	4mo	$172,178	$131	67
720 San Ignacio St	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,328 (+11%)	4mo	$173,406	$131	65
729 San Martin St	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,299 (+8%)	5mo	$199,900	$154	63
904 E 38th St	0.20mi	3/2.5	1,320 (+10%)	7mo	$249,500	$189	62
2805 Grandora Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,318 (+10%)	0mo	$219,899	$167	58
730 San Lucas St	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,325 (+10%)	13mo	$199,000	$150	56
722 San Ignacio St	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,372 (+14%)	7mo	$205,000	$149	56
405 Jenica Cir S	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-4%)	17mo	$190,000	$165	52
2502 Deidre Cir	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,039 (-13%)	2mo	$197,500	$190	37
724 Dana St	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,354 (+13%)	11mo	$185,000	$137	33
726 Dana St	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,039 (-13%)	16mo	$185,000	$178	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $3,464
• Equity at exit: $17,594

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.97×
• Total profit: $32,125
• Equity at exit: $10,202

Cash invested: $33,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78589

• Home prices YoY: -12.1%
• Active inventory: 362
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,455 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$619
• Tax from tax record: −$127 /mo · $1,527/yr
• Insurance: −$49
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$306
• Net cashflow: $354

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,007

Max offer price $118,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $421	-5% $388	+0% $354	+5% $321	+10% $288
Rent	-10% $239	-5% $297	+0% $354	+5% $412	+10% $469
Rate	-1.0pp $414	-0.5pp $384	base $354	+0.5pp $324	+1.0pp $293

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,500
• Closing costs: $3,540
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
706 Fitzgerald St San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	1255	$1,750	$1.39	45d	1	0.61mi
105 Lauryn Dr Unit 3 San Juan, TX	2.0	2.0	948	$1,150	$1.21	24d	1	0.83mi
200 Lauryn Dr Unit 4 San Juan, TX	2.0	2.0	950	$1,275	$1.34	15d	1	0.88mi
203 Encino Dr San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	969	$1,500	$1.55	24d	1	0.89mi
304 Lauryn Dr Unit 1 San Juan, TX	2.0	2.0	948	$1,195	$1.26	24d	1	0.97mi
304 S Ridge Ln Unit 1 San Juan, TX	2.0	2.0	1120	$975	$0.87	45d	1	1.00mi
418 Chula Vista Dr San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	1382	$1,600	$1.16	45d	1	1.28mi
1126 Grandeur Dr Alamo, TX	3.0	2.0	1482	$1,800	$1.21	15d	1	1.31mi
1809 N Mangrove St San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	1392	$1,950	$1.40	20d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $118,000 Active 157 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $118,000 Active 156 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $118,000 Active 155 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $118,000 Active 154 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $118,000 Active 153 DOM
6. 2026-05-04
   status Active 869-char remark

   Show marketing remark (869 chars)

   Discover the potential of this 3-bedroom, 1-bath home located at 733 E Earling Rd, San Juan, TX 78589. Featuring a great-sized layout on an almost one-third acre lot, this property offers exceptional space and versatility. While the home could use some updates, its prime location near the expanding Nolana corridor—an area seeing major commercial growth and development—makes it a smart investment opportunity. Whether you’re looking to renovate and flip, build your dream home, or explore the potential for commercial rezoning and use (buyer to verify zoning and requirements), this property is full of possibilities. Conveniently close to schools, shopping, dining, and with easy access to Expressway 83, this is a rare chance to secure a property in one of San Juan’s most promising areas. Don’t wait—schedule your showing today!

7. 2026-03-07
   status Pending 869-char remark

   Show marketing remark (869 chars)

   Discover the potential of this 3-bedroom, 1-bath home located at 733 E Earling Rd, San Juan, TX 78589. Featuring a great-sized layout on an almost one-third acre lot, this property offers exceptional space and versatility. While the home could use some updates, its prime location near the expanding Nolana corridor—an area seeing major commercial growth and development—makes it a smart investment opportunity. Whether you’re looking to renovate and flip, build your dream home, or explore the potential for commercial rezoning and use (buyer to verify zoning and requirements), this property is full of possibilities. Conveniently close to schools, shopping, dining, and with easy access to Expressway 83, this is a rare chance to secure a property in one of San Juan’s most promising areas. Don’t wait—schedule your showing today!

8. 2026-01-01
   price $118,000 869-char remark

   Show marketing remark (869 chars)

   Discover the potential of this 3-bedroom, 1-bath home located at 733 E Earling Rd, San Juan, TX 78589. Featuring a great-sized layout on an almost one-third acre lot, this property offers exceptional space and versatility. While the home could use some updates, its prime location near the expanding Nolana corridor—an area seeing major commercial growth and development—makes it a smart investment opportunity. Whether you’re looking to renovate and flip, build your dream home, or explore the potential for commercial rezoning and use (buyer to verify zoning and requirements), this property is full of possibilities. Conveniently close to schools, shopping, dining, and with easy access to Expressway 83, this is a rare chance to secure a property in one of San Juan’s most promising areas. Don’t wait—schedule your showing today!

9. 2025-12-29
   price $114,500 869-char remark

   Show marketing remark (869 chars)

   Discover the potential of this 3-bedroom, 1-bath home located at 733 E Earling Rd, San Juan, TX 78589. Featuring a great-sized layout on an almost one-third acre lot, this property offers exceptional space and versatility. While the home could use some updates, its prime location near the expanding Nolana corridor—an area seeing major commercial growth and development—makes it a smart investment opportunity. Whether you’re looking to renovate and flip, build your dream home, or explore the potential for commercial rezoning and use (buyer to verify zoning and requirements), this property is full of possibilities. Conveniently close to schools, shopping, dining, and with easy access to Expressway 83, this is a rare chance to secure a property in one of San Juan’s most promising areas. Don’t wait—schedule your showing today!

10. 2025-12-03
    price $118,000 869-char remark

    Show marketing remark (869 chars)

    Discover the potential of this 3-bedroom, 1-bath home located at 733 E Earling Rd, San Juan, TX 78589. Featuring a great-sized layout on an almost one-third acre lot, this property offers exceptional space and versatility. While the home could use some updates, its prime location near the expanding Nolana corridor—an area seeing major commercial growth and development—makes it a smart investment opportunity. Whether you’re looking to renovate and flip, build your dream home, or explore the potential for commercial rezoning and use (buyer to verify zoning and requirements), this property is full of possibilities. Conveniently close to schools, shopping, dining, and with easy access to Expressway 83, this is a rare chance to secure a property in one of San Juan’s most promising areas. Don’t wait—schedule your showing today!

11. 2025-11-30
    price $120,000 869-char remark

    Show marketing remark (869 chars)

    Discover the potential of this 3-bedroom, 1-bath home located at 733 E Earling Rd, San Juan, TX 78589. Featuring a great-sized layout on an almost one-third acre lot, this property offers exceptional space and versatility. While the home could use some updates, its prime location near the expanding Nolana corridor—an area seeing major commercial growth and development—makes it a smart investment opportunity. Whether you’re looking to renovate and flip, build your dream home, or explore the potential for commercial rezoning and use (buyer to verify zoning and requirements), this property is full of possibilities. Conveniently close to schools, shopping, dining, and with easy access to Expressway 83, this is a rare chance to secure a property in one of San Juan’s most promising areas. Don’t wait—schedule your showing today!

12. 2025-11-13
    price $129,000 869-char remark

    Show marketing remark (869 chars)

    Discover the potential of this 3-bedroom, 1-bath home located at 733 E Earling Rd, San Juan, TX 78589. Featuring a great-sized layout on an almost one-third acre lot, this property offers exceptional space and versatility. While the home could use some updates, its prime location near the expanding Nolana corridor—an area seeing major commercial growth and development—makes it a smart investment opportunity. Whether you’re looking to renovate and flip, build your dream home, or explore the potential for commercial rezoning and use (buyer to verify zoning and requirements), this property is full of possibilities. Conveniently close to schools, shopping, dining, and with easy access to Expressway 83, this is a rare chance to secure a property in one of San Juan’s most promising areas. Don’t wait—schedule your showing today!

13. 2025-10-31
    listed $135,000 Active 869-char remark

    Show marketing remark (869 chars)

    Discover the potential of this 3-bedroom, 1-bath home located at 733 E Earling Rd, San Juan, TX 78589. Featuring a great-sized layout on an almost one-third acre lot, this property offers exceptional space and versatility. While the home could use some updates, its prime location near the expanding Nolana corridor—an area seeing major commercial growth and development—makes it a smart investment opportunity. Whether you’re looking to renovate and flip, build your dream home, or explore the potential for commercial rezoning and use (buyer to verify zoning and requirements), this property is full of possibilities. Conveniently close to schools, shopping, dining, and with easy access to Expressway 83, this is a rare chance to secure a property in one of San Juan’s most promising areas. Don’t wait—schedule your showing today!

14. 2025-08-29
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,527 · $127/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,159 · $180/mo
• Expected delta: +$633/yr (+$53/mo · 41.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,463
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,610
• − Property taxes: −$1,527
• − Insurance: −$590
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,397
• − Management: −$1,397
• − Depreciation: −$3,433
• Taxable income: $2,510
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$602
• After-tax cash flow: $3,651/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pharr-San Juan-Alamo ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834860
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -34.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $33,757
• Composite: 19.63/100
• National rank: #8744
• State rank: #740 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Juan

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #294
• US rank: #6725

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Juan, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,958

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 97% Two or more races 43% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 94%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada
• Languages at home: 18% English-only · Spanish 82%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.82%
• Current HPI: 239.3829
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-12.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Relisted — MCALLENMLS
• 2026-03-07 Pending — MCALLENMLS
• 2026-01-01 Price Changed $118,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-12-29 Price Changed $114,500 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-12-03 Price Changed $118,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-11-30 Price Changed $120,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-11-13 Price Changed $129,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-10-31 Listed $135,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-08-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,527 · +9.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.